| 1. Title: Projections of numbers of AIDS orphans. Author: Michaels D; Back S Source: In: AIDS in the world II: global dimensions, social roots, and responses. The Global AIDS Policy Coalition, edited by Jonathan M. Mann and Daniel J.M. Tarantola. New York, New York, Oxford University Press, 1996. :278-80. Abstract: This brief article presents the estimated numbers of AIDS orphans (those whose mothers died of AIDS) under 15 years of age (under 18 years of age for the US) and the approximate proportion of these children in the entire population under 15 years of age (under 18 years for the United States) for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, the Ivory Coast, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Argentina, Thailand, and the US for the years 1995 and 2000. The numbers and proportions are presented as ranges. To develop these projections, HIV prevalence estimates for rural and urban areas of each country were selected from the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base (Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census) and from "Action for Children Affected by AIDS" (World Health Organization and the UN Children's Fund). Only prevalence estimates obtained from large populations (pregnant women and blood donors) were used. Separate prevalence curves were constructed for each country's urban and rural regions using high and low prevalence figures estimated for 1995 and 2000 by the Global AIDS Policy Coalition. The rural and urban curves were then combined in a proportionately weighted manner, reflecting the population distribution in each country, to generate overall prevalence figures for the model. The lower bound reflects the most conservative data and the assumption that HIV prevalence will not continue to increase after 1996. For the US, a mathematical model was constructed in which cumulative fertility rates were applied to the number of reported AIDS deaths of adult women younger than age 50. The results were adjusted for underreporting of HIV-related mortality, pediatric AIDS deaths, infant mortality, ethnic and racial variation in fertility, and decreased fertility associated with late-stage HIV disease. Except for the US, estimates were derived using the Demographic Projection Model (DemProj) and the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) software programs. Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | KENYA | TANZANIA | UGANDA | ZAMBIA | COTE D'IVOIRE | DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | HONDURAS | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | ARGENTINA | THAILAND | TABLES AND CHARTS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | AIDS | CHILD | ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN | STATISTICS | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Africa, Southern | Africa, Western | Caribbean | Americas | Central America | Latin America | Developed Countries | North America | South America, Southern | South America | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family and Household Document Number: 117222 |
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