1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Toward replacement fertility in Egypt and Tunisia. Author: Eltigani EE Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2009 Sep;40(3):215-226. Abstract: Egypt and Tunisia began their fertility transition at almost identical fertility levels and at roughly the same time period, yet the difference in the pace of decline has been such that the total fertility rate (TFR) in Tunisia reached replacement level by the year 2001, whereas the TFR in Egypt remains above three live births per woman. This article draws on the secondary literature and on several nationally representative surveys from the two countries between 1978 and 2005 to provide empirical evidence of the difference in the pace of fertility decline and to analyze the determinants of the differential. Findings include (a) variation across the two countries in the consistency of fertility decline among the segments of the population leading the transition; (b) that the success of each country’s family planning program was influenced by the role of political leaders and the extent of the program’s integration with socioeconomic development objectives; (c) that the impact of contraception on TFR decline became an important factor in the mid-1980s; and (d) that the greatest determinant of the discrepancy in the pace of fertility decline is the disparity in age at marriage, which rose more significantly in Tunisia than in Egypt. The latter finding indicates that reaching replacement fertility in Egypt hinges primarily on further declines in marital fertility, resulting from reduction of wanted fertility and from an expansion of family planning program coverage and improved efficiency of service delivery and use. Language: English Keywords: EGYPT | TUNISIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LITERATURE REVIEW | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | MARITAL FERTILITY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | HEALTH SERVICES | DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE | Developing Countries | Africa, North | Africa | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Economic Factors | Family Planning | Health Document Number: 339703 |
| 2. Peer Reviewed Title: Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Author: Myrskyla M; Kohler HP; Billari FC Source: Nature. 2009 Aug 6;460(7256):741-3. Abstract: During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Migration Document Number: 342781 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: Three fertility compromises and two transitions. Author: Caldwell JC Source: Population Research and Policy Review. 2008 Aug;27(4):427-446. Abstract: Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or "compromises" are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. Language: English Keywords: NEW ZEALAND | AUSTRALIA | UNITED KINGDOM | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION THEORY | Developed Countries | Oceania | Europe, Western | Europe | North America | Americas | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science Document Number: 327927 |
4.  Peer Reviewed Title: Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe: Diverse, delayed and below replacement. Author: Frejka T; Sobotka T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(3):15-46. Abstract: Early in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europe's population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In Western and Northern Europe, fertility quantum was slightly below replacement. In Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, fertility quantum as measured by the period total fertility rate (TFR) and its tempo-adjusted version was markedly below replacement; in many countries it was around 1.5, and in some populations it was as low as 1.3 to 1.4 births per woman. Throughout Europe, a historic transformation of childbearing patterns characterised by a pronounced delay of entry into parenthood has been taking place. This secular trend towards later childbearing has greatly contributed to the decline and fluctuations in period fertility rates. Delayed births were being recuperated, especially among childless women, but the extent of recuperation differs by country andregion. All in all, despite a recent upward trend in the period TFR, European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest point since the Second World War. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY CHANGES | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 327713 |
| 5. Peer Reviewed Title: Effects of female age at marriage on birth order and utilisation of motherhood services: a district level analysis Author: Marimuthu P Source: Journal of Family Welfare. 2008 Jun;54(1):79-84. Abstract: It has been demonstrated that early age at marriage will lead to conception before physical maturity of girls and will result in morbidity and mortality risk for both mother and child. In this paper it is shown that utilization of ANC services and safe deliveries are negatively associated with proportion of girls married before 18 years of age. Early age at marriage of girls increases the age difference between the spouses16 and consequently most of the wives have less decision-making power even on family size and on her reproductive health issues. From this study it can be understood that a higher proportion of girls are marrying before 18 years of age. If the present trend continues, it will be difficult to achieve the replacement level fertility. The consequences of early age at marriage are yet to reach the poor illiterate people. The law enforcing machinery appears to be toothless against the occurrence of child marriages. The media has to play a critical role in percolating the consequence of early age at marriages of girls through advocacy in restraining the social demographic problem. Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | CHILD MARRIAGE | IMPACT | CHILD HEALTH | MATERNAL HEALTH | RISK FACTORS | MATERNAL MORTALITY | MORBIDITY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Communication | Health | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Diseases | Population Decrease Document Number: 340187 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the second demographic transition in Europe. Author: Sobotka T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(8):171-224. Abstract: This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to family, reproduction, and children, and their representation in different chapters in this collection. It re-examines the link between the second demographic transition and fertility, highlights its strong positive association with fertility at later childbearing ages, and suggests that the transition does not necessarily lead to subreplacement fertility levels. Subsequently, it provides an extensive discussion on the progression of the SDT behind the former 'Iron Curtain.' To explain some apparent contradictions in this process, it employs a conceptual model of 'readiness, willingness, and ability' (RWA) advocated by Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft (2001). It also explores the multifaceted nature of the second demographic transition between different social groups, and points out an apparent paradox: whereas lower educated individuals often embrace values that can be characterised as rather traditional, they also frequently manifest family behaviour associated with the transition, such as non-marital childbearing, high partnership instability, and high prevalence of long-term cohabitation. This suggests that there may be two different pathways of the progression of the second demographic transition. The concluding section points out the role of structural constraints for the diffusion of the transition among disadvantaged social strata, highlights the importance of the 'gender revolution' for the SDT trends, and discusses the usefulness of the SDT framework. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY CHANGES | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | SOCIAL CHANGE | FAMILY LIFE | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | CONTRACEPTION | ATTITUDES | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | GENDER ISSUES | FEMALE ROLE | Developed Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Sociocultural Factors | Family and Household | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Family Planning | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Population Decrease | Social Behavior Document Number: 327718 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades. Author: Streatfield PK; Karar ZA Source: Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition. 2008 Sep;26(3):261-72. Abstract: Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | CONTRACEPTION | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | CLIMATE | AGRICULTURE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Family Planning | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Environment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 328892 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: The path to below replacement fertility in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Author: Abbasi-Shavazi MJ; Hosseini-Chavoshi M; McDonald P Source: Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2007 Aug;22(2):91-112. Abstract: This article aims to review the phenomenal fertility change which occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1972-2003 and to discuss the pathways by which the below replacement-level fertility have been achieved in this country. Mean age at first marriage and age at the first and last birth are analysed. Progression to second and third birth are also examined. Finally, the future prospects for fertility as well as their policy implications are discussed. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: IRAN | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | CRITIQUE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | MARRIAGE AGE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION POLICY | Developing Countries | Middle East | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Fertility | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 326124 |
| 9. Title: Towards below replacement fertility in Southern Africa. Author: Garenne ML; Tollman SM; Kahn K Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 19 p. Abstract: The aims were to analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and of increasing HIV/AIDS. A health and demographic surveillance system is in place since 1992 in Agincourt, on a population of approximately 70 000 persons, with annual census and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented with a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. The fertility transition has almost ended over a period of 25 years in Agincourt. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979, and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in a proportionate fashion in all age groups, including adolescents in the recent period. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At the current rates of changes in fertility and mortality, the NRR could be expected to reach 0.63 by year 2010. The situation of a below replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications in the future. The population might even decline for the country as a whole, and is already stagnating in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess of natural increase. (author's) Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | RURAL AREAS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY RATE | CHANGES | NET REPRODUCTION RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS | HIV INFECTIONS | IMPACT | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Population Decrease | Fertility Changes | Contraception | Family Planning | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Communication Document Number: 317729 |
| 10. Title: Globalization, policy intervention, and reproduction: below replacement fertility in China. Author: Gu B; Zheng Z; Wang F; Cai Y Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 25 p. Abstract: We suggest in this paper that China's low fertility not only has profound implications for the demographic future of the world, but also presents an important and unique opportunity to study the underlying forces of emerging global low fertility. The Chinese case is theoretically interesting because of the co-presence of three important forces, two of which are commonly cited as explanations for below replacement fertility. These are structural changes that resulted in economic pressure and constraints imposed on young people, and ideational changes showcased by a more individualistic orientation that places marriage and childbearing at a lower priority than work and self-fulfillment in one's life. Both forces, as we argue in the following, need to be examined under the broad context of the recent wave of globalization. At the forefront of a fledging global economy, and as one of the most dynamic economies in the world in the last two decades, China has clearly felt the impact of globalization andits associated forces affecting human reproduction. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY SURVEYS | POPULATION | GOVERNMENT | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | ONE CHILD POLICY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | ECONOMIC FACTORS | VALUE ORIENTATION | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Antinatalist Policy | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Population Decrease | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 317256 |
| 11. Peer Reviewed Title: Low fertility in China: Trends, policy and impact. Author: Gu B Source: Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2007 Aug;22(2):73-90. Abstract: China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion, while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB), 2006). China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy, having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports China's total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4. The rapid changes occurring in China's population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends, policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth, birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China, before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing, gender equality, sex ratio at birth and labour supply. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | CRITIQUE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | POPULATION POLICY | SEX RATIO | LIFE EXPECTANCY | OLD AGE SECURITY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Length of Life | Mortality | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 326122 |
| 12. Title: The intrinsic total fertility rate: a new approach to the measurement of fertility. Author: McDonald P; Kippen R Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 19 p. Abstract: Demographers measure and explain fertility at both the individual and the aggregate levels. Individual level analysis makes use of standard statistical techniques with some measure of fertility as the dependent variable. In individual analysis, the main 'demographic' variables related to fertility, age and parity, will either be a defining component of the dependent variable or will be employed as control variables in the analysis. Given the nature of available data, individual level analysis of fertility is usually cross-sectional, although when multiple cross-sections or life history data are available, comparisons will be made about the variation in observed associations across time. Again because of the nature of the available data, it is rare indeed that full fertility histories of birth cohorts are examined in individual level analysis. In aggregate level analysis of fertility, the available data are usually restricted to a very small number of characteristics such as age, place of residence and parity. The simple Period Total Fertility Rate (PTFR) for a geographic area remains the most commonly available aggregate measure. Often it is the only available aggregate measure of the fertility trend. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: AUSTRALIA | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | COHORT ANALYSIS | PERIOD ANALYSIS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | CASE STUDIES | POPULATION | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DECISION MAKING | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | CENSUS | Developed Countries | Oceania | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Studies | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Population Decrease | Behavior | Population Statistics Document Number: 318535 |
| 13. Title: Singapore: population policies and programs. Author: Yap Mui Teng Source: In: The global family planning revolution: three decades of population policies and programs, edited by Warren C. Robinson and John A. Ross. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2007. :201-219. Abstract: Concerns since the mid-1980s have included issues of the growth of the labor force, the vibrancy of the work-force, and the country's ability to sustain economic growth in the face of persistent below-replacement-level fertility and population aging. A larger population is now considered desirable to provide the critical mass for future economic growth. Planners consider the constraint of geographic size to be less critical than in the past, because they believe that the country can comfortably accommodate a much larger population of more than 5 million people, compared with the 3 million thought desirable earlier. Cheung, however, cautions against too rapid population growth to reach the larger population size, citing the momentum generated by pro-natalist population policies and the difficulty of reversing them . Population planning has become a much more complex balancing act between the economy's needs for more and better qualified workers and such social and political considerations as the size of the dependent population and ethnic balance. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: SINGAPORE | CASE STUDIES | HISTORICAL REVIEW | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS | IEC | ANTINATALIST POLICY | PRONATALIST POLICY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | INCENTIVES | DISINCENTIVES | FERTILITY DECLINE | FUNDS | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Planning | Programs | Organization and Administration | Program Activities | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Financial Activities | Economic Factors Document Number: 321948 |
| 14. Title: Fertility decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1972 - 2000. Author: Abbasi-Shavazi MJ; McDonald P Source: Asian Population Studies. 2006 Nov;2(3):217-237. Abstract: Confounding all conventional wisdom, the fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the early 1980s to 2.1 births per woman in 2000. That this, the largest and fastest fall in fertility ever recorded, should have occurred in one of the world's few Islamic Republics demands explanation. The paper addresses this issue in three parts. The second part is its core: a description of fertility levels, trends and patterns in Iran by rural and urban areas and provinces in the 1972-2000 period. Own-children data from the 1986 and 1996 Censuses as well as the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) allow us to analyse single-year movements of fertility over the last three decades. This demographic description is proceeded by a socio-political history of Iran in the years 1970-2000, providing a context for the demographic changes. We conclude with some speculations linking specific socio-economic and political changes to the demographic change. Our concluding arguments suggest continued low fertility in Iran. (author's) Language: English Keywords: IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | ISLAM | FERTILITY RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Middle East | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Population Decrease | Religion | Sociocultural Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Document Number: 314511 |
| 15. Peer Reviewed Title: The western fertility decline: Reflections from a chronological perspective. Author: Caldwell JC Source: Journal of Population Research. 2006 Nov;23(2):225-242. Abstract: The study of recent fertility trends in the West has been dominated by examinations of Europe. A better perspective on twentieth-century fertility movements can be gained by giving an equal emphasis to trends in the 'Offshoots' (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). This paper focuses on the periods of rapid fertility decline and to a greater extent on the intervening periods of nearequilibrium. It is suggested that the 'late twentieth century compromise' is more stable than is suggested by reports on its internal strains, and that only massive government intervention could raise fertility. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | LITERATURE REVIEW | BABY BOOM | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION THEORY | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Population Decrease | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 324029 |
| 16. Peer Reviewed Title: Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition. Author: Coleman D Source: Population and Development Review. 2006 Sep;32(3):401-446. Abstract: This article proposes that a third demographic transition is underway in Europe and the United States. The ancestry of some national populations is being radically and permanently altered by high levels of immigration of persons from remote geographic origins or with distinctive ethnic and racial ancestry, in combination with persistent sub-replacement fertility and accelerated levels of emigration of the domestic population. The estimates and projections on which these statements are based relate to seven European countries with a 2005 total population of 183 million--about half the population of Western Europe. Most of the other Western European countries, however, share the same essential features of low fertility and high immigration. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | CLASSIFICATION | ETHNIC GROUPS | IMMIGRANTS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | WHITES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION GROWTH | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Research Methodology | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Migrants | Migration | Population Dynamics | Fertility | Population Decrease Document Number: 310801 |
| 17. Title: The political demography of the world system, 2000-2050. Author: Demeny P; McNicoll G Source: New York, New York, Population Council, 2006. 34 p. (Policy Research Division Working Papers No. 213) Abstract: Population policies are deliberately constructed or modified institutional arrangements and/or specific programs through which governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change. For any given country, the aim of population policy may be narrowly construed as bringing about quantitative changes in the membership of the territorially circumscribed population under the government's jurisdiction. Governments' concern with population matters can also extend beyond the borders of their own jurisdictions. Thus, international aspects of population policy have become increasingly salient. Additions to the population are primarily the result of individual decisions concerning childbearing. Within the constraints of their social milieu, these decisions reflect an implicit calculus by parents about the private costs and benefits of children. But neither costs nor benefits of fertility are likely to be fully internal to the family: they can also impose burdens and advantages on others in the society. Such externalities, negative and positive, represent a legitimate concern for all those affected. The essay briefly discusses how individual and collective interests were reconciled in traditional societies, summarizes the population policy approaches adopted by the classic liberal state, and sketches government responses to the low-fertility demographic regime that emerged in the West between the two World Wars. In greater detail it considers international population policies after World War II and contemporary population policy responses to below-replacement fertility. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS | DEMOGRAPHY | POPULATION POLICY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY | WAR | MIGRATION | ECONOMIC FACTORS | DISEASES | AIDS | GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS | Demographic Analysis | Research Methodology | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Programs | Organization and Administration Document Number: 309677 |
| 18. Title: How many children does it take to replace their parents? Variation in replacement fertility as an indicator of child survival and gender status. Author: Engelman R; Leahy E Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 21 p. Abstract: Replacement fertility is a key demographic concept often misconstrued as a constant 2.1 children per woman. Actually it varies by population and over time, from as low as 2.06 children per woman to well over 3. High replacement fertility mostly reflects low survival of female infants (i.e. future childbearers) to their own reproductive age. High sex ratios at birth can also raise replacement fertility values somewhat. Replacement fertility is generally perceived as relevant only to population equilibrium or decline. Its variation can, however, illuminate child and adolescent survival and some aspects of female status when its components are disaggregated. Those who study and work on population can clarify for policymakers the importance of tracking and publicizing variation and change in replacement fertility rates. This concept can then evolve from a hypothetical "target" on which total fertility rates should converge to an indicator of young people's health and female well-being. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | SEX RATIO | CHILD SURVIVAL | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | PUBLIC HEALTH | RECOMMENDATIONS | DATA COLLECTION | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Survivorship | Length of Life | Mortality | Population Decrease | Birth Rate | Fertility | Health | Research Methodology Document Number: 316997 |
| 19. Title: Localized fertility policies and below replacement fertility in China. Author: Gu B; Wang F Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 3 p. Abstract: Despite difficulties in estimating fertility level in China in the 1990s due to the lack of reliable demographic data, several recent assessments have converged on a consensus that China's national fertility level had declined to a level of a TFR around 1.5 by the late 1990s. Among the factors that may have contributed to achieving such a low fertility level is China's decades-long government birth control program. China's fertility and population control policy, while a national priority for over two decades, has evolved to contain a highly localized feature. Localization of a national policy was a reaction to China's highly heterogonous demographic and social conditions, and it facilitated better policy implementation by a shared sense of responsibility between China's central and local governments. Policy modification and localization at the same time also create confusion over the nature of China's fertility policy. While more and more people realizing that China's fertility policy is not a "one rule for all" policy, few understand how and to what degree fertility policy implementation varies by locality and population. This paper examines the localized nature of fertility policymaking in China, and discusses the relationships between government policies and achieved low fertility levels in China's provinces and prefectures. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH | MULTIREGIONAL ANALYSIS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION POLICY | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Research Methodology | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Document Number: 317005 |
| 20. Title: Low fertility in Europe: causes, implications and policy options. Author: Kohler HP; Billari FC; Ortega JA Source: [Unpublished] 2006 Feb 15. 51 p. Abstract: In this paper we investigate the emergence and persistence of low and particularly lowest-low fertility in Europe, analyze its demographic patterns and socioeconomic determinants, and address the factors that underlie the divergence of fertility levels in Europe and developed countries more generally. The central thrust of our argument is that the emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe is due to the combination of four distinct demographic and behavioral factors. First, economic and social changes have made the postponement of fertility a rational response for individuals. Second, social interaction processes affecting the timing of fertility have rendered the population response to these new socioeconomic conditions substantially larger than the direct individual responses. As a consequence, modest socioeconomic changes can explain the rapid and persistent postponement transitions from early to late age-patterns of fertility that have been associated with recent trends towards low and lowest-low fertility. Third, demographic distortions of period fertility measures, caused by the postponement of fertility and changes in the parity-composition of the population, have reduced the level of period fertility indicators below the associated level of cohort fertility (for discussion of this technical aspect, see Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Kohler and Ortega 2002). Fourth, institutional settings in Southern, Central and Eastern European countries have favored an overall low quantum of fertility. Moreover, this institutional setting has caused particularly large reductions in completed fertility in lowest-low fertility countries due to the delay of childbearing. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | POLICYMAKERS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | POPULATION POLICY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | SOCIAL CHANGE | MARITAL FERTILITY | EMPLOYMENT STATUS | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Comparative Studies | Studies | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Economic Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 314890 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Low fertility and the state: The efficacy of policy. Author: McDonald P Source: Population and Development Review. 2006 Sep;32(3):485-510. Abstract: Some 30 countries today have fertility rates below 1.5 births per woman. The governments of each of these countries have reported to the United Nations that they consider this rate to be "too low" (United Nations 2004). When fertility is moderately below replacement level, the size of subsequent generations falls only slowly and, if considered necessary, there is an opportunity to supplement the generation size with migration. When fertility remains very low, however, the generation size falls rapidly and massive migration would be required to offset the decline (United Nations 2000). Hence, we can think in terms of a "safety zone" for low fertility. Population dynamics tends to confirm the view of governments that the "safety zone" lies above 1.5 births per woman. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | POLICYMAKERS | LABOR FORCE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION POLICY | CULTURE | PRONATALIST POLICY | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | LIBERALISM | GENDER ISSUES | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Population Decrease | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Migration Document Number: 310803 |
| 22. Title: Does more support in children care make a difference in working women fertility? Author: Pinnelli A; Fiori F Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. [2] p. Abstract: Specifically, in this paper we study the intention of giving birth to a second child for women who recently had their first child, in order to highlight the influence of different aspects related to father's involvement in child care and other forms of collaboration, to institutional support, and the support of the family network in caring the child. We hypothesize that every form of support is positively associated to a greater inclination toward the transition from first to second birth. We control for demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the woman and the partner, the existence of problems related to the delivery and health condition of the child, the availability of paid domestic help, contextual characteristics as regard the gender system and the availability of childcare services. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: ITALY | LITERATURE REVIEW | WOMEN | LABOR FORCE | CHILD CARE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | BIRTH INTERVALS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Southern | Europe | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Child Rearing | Behavior | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Document Number: 316840 |
| 23. Peer Reviewed Title: Female deficit and the marriage market in Korea. Author: Rallu JL Source: Demographic Research. 2006 Aug 18;15(3):51-60. Abstract: Selective abortion of female embryos causes abnormal sex ratios at birth that will result in imbalances on the marriage market. However, it is well-known that varying cohort size in the frame of different mean ages at marriage for males and females also causes imbalances. In the case of Korea, both phenomenons are present: SRB of 115 in 1990-1995 and rapid fertility decline from the early 1960s, with TFR fluctuating below replacement level since 1983 and reaching 1.16 in 2004. This note assesses the relative roles of SRB and cohort size on the marriage market and the adjustments that can happen thru age gap between spouses. (author's) Language: English Keywords: REPUBLIC OF KOREA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | SEX RATIO | MARRIAGE | ABORTION | MARRIAGE AGE | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | Developed Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Research Methodology | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Nuptiality | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Marriage Patterns | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Population Decrease Document Number: 306494 Notification |
| 24. Title: Fertility in the developed English-speaking countries outside Europe: Canada, United States, Australia and New Zealand. Author: Sardon JP Source: Popualtion-E. 2006 May-Jun;61(3):267-292. Abstract: In the countries of Europe, fertility has at best stabilized at below-replacement level, and sometimes well below this threshold. This is not the case in the non-European developed English-speaking countries where, despite the absence of any directly targeted family policy, fertility appears to be holding up more strongly than in Europe. What is the actual situation? We examine this question by reviewing not only figures for overall fertility, but also, where data are available, for order-specific fertility. We then attempt to explain what might be the origin of the discrepancies observed. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | CANADA | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | AUSTRALIA | NEW ZEALAND | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | TIME FACTORS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | Developed Countries | North America, Northern | Americas | North America | Oceania | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate Document Number: 308392 |
| 25. Title: The impact of childhood mortality on fertility in six rural thanas of Bangladesh. Author: Hossain MB; Phillips JF; LeGrand TK Source: New York, New York, Population Council, 2005. (1)14 p. (Policy Research Division Working Papers No. 198) Abstract: This paper examines the causal structure of the relationship between child mortality events and subsequent fertility with an analysis of prospective longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring to nearly 8,000 mothers observed in Bangladesh over the 1982–93 period, a time of rapid decline in fertility. Generalized hazard-regression analyses are employed to assess the effect of infant and child mortality on the hazard of conception, controlling for birth order and maternal age and educational attainment. Results show that childhood mortality increases the hazard of birth-interval closure if the death occurs in the index interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. Substantial birth-interval effects are also evident if the death occurs during a prior birth interval, signifying a volitional replacement effect alone. Moreover, mortality effects in prior birth intervals are consistent with the hypothesis of insurance effects. Interaction of replacement with elapsed time suggests that the volitional impact of child mortality increases as the demographic transition progresses. This volitional effect interacts with sex of the index child. Investigation of higher-order interactions suggests that this gender-replacement effect has not changed with time. (author's) Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | PROSPECTIVE STUDIES | RURAL POPULATION | CHILD MORTALITY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | BIRTH INTERVALS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Fertility | Fertility Measurements | Population Decrease Document Number: 289765 |
| 26. Title: Japan's baby bust: causes, implications, and policy responses. Author: Retherford RD; Ogawa N Source: Honolulu, Hawaii, East-West Center, 2005 Apr. 44 p. (East-West Center Working Papers, Population and Health Series No. 118) Abstract: This paper describes the trend in fertility in Japan, analyzes the causes and implications of the baby bust after 1973, and discusses the Japanese government’s efforts to raise fertility, which by 2003 had fallen to 1.29 children (i.e., births) per woman, as indicated by the total fertility rate. Also addressed are the questions of why the government’s efforts to raise fertility have not been effective and what additional steps the government might take. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the measure of fertility most frequently used in this paper. The TFR for a particular calendar year is defined as the number of births that a woman would have by age 50 if, hypothetically, she lived through her reproductive years experiencing the age-specific fertility rates that prevailed in the population in the particular calendar year. An age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) in a particular calendar year is calculated as the number of births that occurred during the year to women at a given age, divided by the midyear number of women at that same age. An ASFR has units of births per woman per year. The TFR is calculated by summing the ASFRs (births per woman per year at each age) between the ages of 15 and 50. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: JAPAN | CRITIQUE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | ECONOMIC CONDITIONS | POPULATION LAW | POPULATION POLICY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO | SOCIAL SECURITY | VALUE ORIENTATION | CHILD CARE | TAXATION | Developed Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Legislation | Social Policy | Policy | Population Decrease | Parity | Government Financing | Financial Activities | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Child Rearing Document Number: 290593 |
| 27. Title: The future of fertility in intermediate-fertility countries. Revised. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: In: Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14 March 2002, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2004. :45-71. Abstract: This paper reviews the status of the fertility transition and the processes that have led to the nearly universal reductions of fertility achieved so far. The state of current knowledge, buttressed by the actual experience of a growing number of countries, suggests that lengthy periods of below-replacement fertility are likely to be common in the future. Revised guidelines for the United Nations 2002 Revision for the projection of fertility in today’s intermediate-fertility countries are proposed based on the recognition that replacement-level fertility is not necessarily hard-wired in the evolution of populations. The proposed guidelines imply that, under the medium variant, approximately 80 per cent of the world population will be projected to have below-replacement fertility before midcentury. (author's) Language: English Keywords: LITERATURE REVIEW | HIGH FERTILITY POPULATION | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | POPULATION DYNAMICS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Population Decrease | Contraception | Family Planning Document Number: 282129 |
| 28. Peer Reviewed Title: Synthetic fertility measures and the search for commonalities. Author: Billari FC Source: Population Studies. 2004 Mar;58(1):[5] p.. Abstract: In searching for a comprehensive theory that would explain the decline of fertility to very low and lowest-low levels, Caldwell and Schindlmayr confront an issue of great significance. A variety of analytical issues are embedded in the reasoning of their paper, and it is some of these that will be addressed here. For simplicity, we shall follow the authors in the definition of fertility as 'very low' when total fertility is below 1.5 births per woman—a threshold already adopted in the literature—and we shall follow Kohler et al. (2002) in the definition of 'lowest-low fertility' as total fertility below 1.3. This distinction between 'low' and 'lowest-low' is a key consideration for Caldwell Schindlmayr: in their view, the choice of a lower threshold is the reason why relatively little interest has been taken in explaining the very low fertility of large populations like those of Germany and Austria. We shall consider three issues: the relevance of small differences when fertility is particularly low; the role of period fertility measures; and the role of cohort fertility measures. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | CRITIQUE | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Population Decrease Document Number: 187297 |
| 29. Title: Social and economic implications of India's population growth under alternative policy options, 2001-10. Author: Datta P Source: [Unpublished] 2004. 23 p. Abstract: This paper attempts to examine the social and economic implications of India’s population growth under alternative policy options for a relatively shorter period i.e., 2001-10. The various policy options considered in the paper are mainly related to the National Population Policy, 2000 and 10th Five Year Plan, 2002-07. The analysis has been carried out under three alternative scenarios, namely, Reduction of unmet need by 1 percent till 2010 and the growth rate of GDP by 6.1 percent as experienced in 8th and 9th Five Year Plan (scenario 1), Achieving the TFR of 2.1 by 2010 and growth rate of GDP by 7.93 percent till 2007 and 9.3 percent thereafter (Scenario 2) and Achieving TFR of 2.1 by 2010 and growth rate of GDP by 6.1 percent from 2001-10 (Scenario 3). Along with social and economic implications, the family planning requirements are also assessed for the country. The analysis showed that the demographic parameters are close under these three scenarios. The total population is likely to be between 1155-1164 million by 2010 with a young age structure. On economic front, it is found that the per capita GDP can be increased maximum of 77 percent (from Rs 11181 in 2001 to Rs 19, 757 by 2010 at 1993-94 prices) under the most favorable condition (Scenario 2) and may not be doubled as stated in 10th Plan document. It is also estimated that about 135 million employment creation is required to achieve the full employment by 2010. However, the dependency ratio is expected to decline during the period. On social front, it is found that the absolute number of children in the primary school age will decline and so the requirement of new schools. But the requirement of health professionals such as Doctors and Nurses is likely to be more for the coming years. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | LABOR FORCE | POPULATION GROWTH | IMPACT | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | NEEDS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Human Resources | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Communication | Population Decrease Document Number: 194518 |
| 30. Title: On the future of human fertility in India. Author: Dyson T Source: In: Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14 March 2002, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2004. :392-408. Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of the trend and level of fertility in India during the coming decades. It takes as its starting point (i) the requirement to produce population projections which are as accurate as possible, and (ii) the fact that countries with fertility around or below the replacement level currently hold over forty percent of the world’s people. Since India contains one sixth of humanity, the future of its population is clearly of great interest. And the question of what will happen to the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) is crucial - because it will doubtless be the most important variable determining by how much the population will grow. The paper has six parts. First I provide an explanation for the phenomenon of below-replacement fertility. Second I comment briefly on the processes involved in framing assumptions for population projections. Third I review some past population projections for India - with particular reference to their fertility assumptions. This involves forwarding some fertility assumptions and ratio nalisations of my own. Fourth I make some additional comments about the nature of future fertility decline in India. Fifth I examine the subject of regional fertility variation - a discussion which inter alia touches upon how low future total fertility may fall. Here I suggest that there are deep-seated social-structural considerations which will probably influence regional fertility variation over the medium-term. The final section of this unreservedly speculative paper summarises and concludes. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | CRITIQUE | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Changes | Fertility Document Number: 281140 |
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