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Title: Early motherhood, high mortality, and HIV/AIDS rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Gant L; Heath KM; Ejikeme GG
Source: Social Work In Public Health. 2009 Jan-Apr;24(1-2):39-46.
Abstract: Despite billions of dollars devoted to HIV/AIDS prevention since 1990, rates of infection continue to climb worldwide, primarily through heterosexual contact, and Sub-Saharan Africa is the worst case scenario (UNAIDS, 2004). Traditional intervention programs based on the ABCs (abstinence, being faithful, and condom use) of safe sex practices have shown mixed success. Engaging in risky sexual behavior (behaviors not adhering to the ABCs of safe sex practices) continues to escalate the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Although research abounds with correlates to HIV/AIDS rates, few studies have addressed the basis of sexual behavior. Here we show that not only are HIV/AIDS rates significantly higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in the rest of the world but also infant mortality rates and teenage birth rates are higher as well. Based on these findings, we argue that engaging in risky sexual behavior, in many circumstances associated with deplorable living conditions and high mortality, is the only viable option for avoiding reproductive failure: dying without leaving surviving descendents. We suggest that initiatives that improve overall health and living conditions in the at-risk populations are necessary before traditional intervention programs can effectively combat the spread of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Language: English
Keywords:
AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | RESEARCH REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | HIV INFECTIONS | AIDS | PREVALENCE | MORTALITY | LIFE EXPECTANCY | INFANT MORTALITY | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | SEX BEHAVIOR | Africa | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Length of Life | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Reproductive Behavior | Behavior
Document Number: 341955

Peer Reviewed

Title: Tackling health inequities in Chile: maternal, newborn, infant, and child mortality between 1990 and 2004.
Author: Gonzalez R; Requejo JH; Nien JK; Merialdi M; Bustreo F; Betran AP
Author: Chile Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Writing Group
Source: American Journal of Public Health. 2009 Jul;99(7):1220-6.
Abstract: OBJECTIVES: We analyzed trends in maternal, newborn, and child mortality in Chile between 1990 and 2004, after the introduction of national interventions and reforms, and examined associations between trends and interventions. METHODS: Data were provided by the Chilean Ministry of Health on all pregnancies between 1990 and 2004 (approximately 4,000,000). We calculated yearly maternal mortality ratios, stillbirth rates, and mortality rates for neonates, infants (aged > 28 days and < 1 year), and children aged 1 to 4 years. We also calculated these statistics by 5-year intervals for Chile's poorest to richest district quintiles. RESULTS: During the study period, the maternal mortality ratio decreased from 42.1 to 18.5 per 100,000 live births. The mortality rate for neonates decreased from 9.0 to 5.7 per 1000 births, for infants from 7.8 to 3.1 per 1000 births, and for young children from 3.1 to 1.7 per 1000 live births. The stillbirth rate declined from 6.0 to 5.0 per 1000 births. Disparities in these mortality statistics between the poorest and richest district quintiles also decreased, with the largest mortality reductions in the poorest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: During a period of socioeconomic development and health sector reforms, Chile experienced significant mortality and inequity reductions.
Language: English
Keywords:
CHILE | RESEARCH REPORT | DATA ANALYSIS | INFANT | CHILDREN | CHILD MORTALITY | MATERNAL MORTALITY | DEATH RATE | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | INEQUALITIES | PREVENTION AND CONTROL | Developing Countries | South America, Southern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Diseases
Document Number: 342239

Peer Reviewed

Title: Fragile, threatened, and still urgently needed: family planning programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Jacobstein R; Bakamjian L; Pile JM; Wickstrom J
Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2009 Jun;40(2):147-154.
Abstract: Many family planning (FP) programs in sub-Saharan Africa are fragile; recent performance has fallen off and future performance is challenged. Yet robust and wellfunctioning FP programs are still urgently needed if countries are to meet their health, equity, poverty-alleviation, and economic development goals. In support of these observations, we present data on FP parameters in sub- Saharan Africa overall and in eight of its countries, including Nigeria, the most populous African country; Kenya, a long-time leader in FP in the region; and Uganda, with fertility among the highest in Africa and a population projected to more than triple in the next 40 years to become sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-most-populous country. We also draw upon findings of individual case studies of the contraceptive programs of Ghana (Solo et al. 2005c), Malawi (Solo et al. 2005a), Senegal (Wickstrom et al. 2006), Tanzania (Pile and Simbakalia 2006), and Zambia (Solo et al. 2005b), as well as a synthesis of some of these case studies (ACQUIRE Project 2005). All eight of these countries, which together comprise 40 percent of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, are facing the same difficult dynamics in terms of threat and need.
Language: English
Keywords:
AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | NEEDS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | DECENTRALIZATION | FUNDS | URBANIZATION | POVERTY | FOOD SECURITY | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Planning | Economic Factors | Contraception | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Financial Activities | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Socioeconomic Factors | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment
Document Number: 341898

Peer Reviewed

Title: Advances in development reverse fertility declines.
Author: Myrskyla M; Kohler HP; Billari FC
Source: Nature. 2009 Aug 6;460(7256):741-3.
Abstract: During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Migration
Document Number: 342781

Title: Incidence of induced abortions in Peru [letter]
Author: Puccetti R
Source: CMAJ. 2009 May 26;180(11):1133; author reply 1133-4.
Abstract: Antonio Bernab�-Ortiz and colleagues misleadingly assert that, although access to induced abortion services is legally restricted in Peru, the incidence of induced abortion is "as high as, or higher than, the estimated incidence in many countries where induced abortion is legal and safe." The abortion rate (the number of abortions per 1000 women of reproductive age) is greatly influenced by a number of factors, namely contraceptive behaviour and fertility rates, and thus it is not a good measure to use to evaluate the impact of the legal status of abortion on the incidence of abortions in a particular jurisdiction. The estimated total fertility rate is 2.86 in Peru; in comparison, it is 2.04 in the United States and 1.66 in the United Kingdom. Therefore, it is not surprising that the abortion rate in Peru may be similar to the rates in the United States and United Kingdom. The legal status of abortion may strongly affect postconceptional attitudes concerning pregnancy termination; this effect is much better described by the abortion ratio (the number of abortions per 1000 live births). Of the approximately 8660 pregnancies reported by participants in the study by Bernab�-Ortiz and colleagues, 1127 ended in induced abortions and 996 in spontaneous abortions. This means that there were approximately 6538 live births and the abortion ratio was 172.3. The authors referred to a study with US data from 2001, in which there were 6.4 million pregnancies, 1.1 million spontaneous abortions and 1.3 million induced abortions. The corresponding abortion ratio was 325. More recent US data indicate that there were 1 206 200 abortions and 4 138 349 births in 2005. The corresponding abortion ratio was 291.5. In England and Wales, 193 737 induced abortions and 669 601 live births were registered in 2006, with a corresponding abortion ratio of 289.3. These data show that there is a lower incidence of abortion in Peru than in other countries where abortion is legal. (full-text)
Language: English
Keywords:
PERU | CRITIQUE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | MEASUREMENT | ABORTION LAW | ABORTION RATE | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Developing Countries | South America, Western | South America | Latin America | Americas | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements
Document Number: 341641

Peer Reviewed

Title: How Increased Contraceptive Use has Reduced Maternal Mortality.
Author: Stover J; Ross J
Source: Maternal and Child Health Journal. 2009 Jul 31;
Abstract: It is widely recognized that family planning contributes to reducing maternal mortality by reducing the number of births and, thus, the number of times a woman is exposed to the risk of mortality. Here we show evidence that it also lowers the risk per birth, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), by preventing high-risk, high-parity births. This study seeks to quantify these contributions to lower maternal mortality as the use of family planning rose over the period from 1990 to 2005. We use estimates from United Nations organizations of MMRs and the total fertility rate (TFR) to estimate the number of births averted-and, consequently, the number of maternal deaths directly averted-as the TFR in the developing world dropped. We use data from 146 Demographic and Health Surveys on contraceptive use and the distribution of births by risk factor, as well as special country data sets on the MMR by parity and age, to explore the impacts of contraceptive use on high-risk births and, thus, on the MMR. Over 1 million maternal deaths were averted between 1990 and 2005 because the fertility rate in developing countries declined. Furthermore, by reducing demographically high-risk births in particular, especially high-parity births, family planning reduced the MMR and thus averted additional maternal deaths indirectly. This indirect effect can reduce a county's MMR by an estimated 450 points during the transition from low to high levels of contraceptive use. Increases in the use of modern contraceptives have made and can continue to make an important contribution to reducing maternal mortality in the developing world.
Language: English
Keywords:
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | MORTALITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL AGE | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | PREGNANCY, HIGH RISK | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Contraception | Family Planning | Mortality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Pregnancy | Reproduction
Document Number: 342297

Title: Changes in fertility rates among Muslims in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
Author: Zuehlke E
Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Apr. [1] p.
Abstract: The number of Muslims worldwide is projected to grow over the next decade to reach one-quarter of the world's population, largely because of higher fertility among Muslim populations. Yet, it is simplistic to argue that there is a specifically Islamic pattern of fertility due solely to religious influence, says Mehtab Karim, a senior research adviser and senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and World Affairs. Karim visited PRB as part of its ongoing Policy Seminar series and presented findings based on the latest Demographic and Health Survey data from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. (Excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
BANGLADESH | INDIA | PAKISTAN | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | RELIGION | ISLAM | FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CULTURE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION GROWTH | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | FAMILY PLANNING | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Economic Factors | Contraception | Socioeconomic Status
Document Number: 331347

10.

Title: Youth unemployment and underemployment in Africa brings uncertainty and opportunity.
Author: Zuehlke E
Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Feb. [2] p.
Abstract: The World Bank's Youth and Unemployment in Africa: The Potential, The Problem, The Promise report, released in December 2008, investigates the nature of Africa's youth demographics and recommends policies to give its youth access to stable employment. It argues that creating viable jobs for young people is a recondition for Africa's poverty eradication, sustainable development, and peace; and in countries emerging from conflict, access to employment for youth is integral to peace-building processes. (Excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
AFRICA | SUMMARY REPORT | YOUTH | UNEMPLOYMENT | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | MIGRATION | Developing Countries | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Population | Employment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics
Document Number: 331481

11.

Title: World fertility patterns 2007. [Wallchart].
Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division
Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2008 Jan. [2] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/269)
Abstract: The last decades of the twentieth century witnessed a major transformation in world fertility: total fertility fell from an average of 4.5 children per woman in 1970-1975 to 2.6 children per woman in 2000-2005. This change was driven mostly by developing countries whose fertility dropped by nearly half (from 5.4 to 2.9 children per woman) with the decline being less marked among the least developed countries where fertility remains high (their average fertility declined from 6.6 children per woman in 1970-1975 to 5.0 in 2000-2005). This chart presents some of the data available to assess the change in fertility taking place in the countries of the world. For each of the 195 countries or areas with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2007, it displays available unadjusted data on total fertility, age-specific fertility and the mean age at childbearing for two points in time: the first as close as possible to 1970 and the second as close as possible to 2005. Data on total fertility for the world as a whole, the development groups and major areas are estimates referring to 1970-1975 and 2000-2005 derived from the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects. The chart thus presents regional estimates of fertility change and part of the basic data underlying those estimates. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | TABLES AND CHARTS | FERTILITY CHANGES | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | UN | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors
Document Number: 326616

12.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Demography, culture, and policy: Understanding Japan's low fertility.
Author: Boling P
Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):307-326.
Abstract: Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
JAPAN | FRANCE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FAMILY POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | LABOR FORCE | GENDER ISSUES | PRONATALIST POLICY | POLITICAL SYSTEMS | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | CHILD CARE | FEMALE ROLE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Child Rearing | Behavior | Social Behavior
Document Number: 327375

13.
Peer Reviewed

Title: [Fertility of indigenous women in Minas Gerais State, Brazil: an analysis using the 2000 census] Fecundidade das mulheres autodeclaradas indigenas residentes em Minas Gerais,
Author: Dias Junior CS; Verona AP; Pena JL; Machado-Coelho GL
Source: Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2008 Nov;24(11):2477-86.
Abstract: Indigenous populations living in villages in Brazil have presented high total fertility rates (TFR) that have increased over time in some cases. Meanwhile, data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) or National Census Bureau show a decline in the TFR for the total self-declared indigenous population (combining urban, rural, and specific rural residence). The current study uses data from the 2000 Population Census to describe and compare the structure and level of period fertility for the cohort of self-declared indigenous women living in the State of Minas Gerais. We calculated age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), the period TFR for 2000, and the cohort TFR for women 50 years and older. According to the findings, self-declared indigenous women living in Minas Gerais experienced high fertility in the past, regardless of their place of residence. In conclusion, the 2000 Population Census is an important data source for studies on indigenous populations in Brazil, based on the high coverage and wealth of information.
Language: Portuguese
Keywords:
BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | CENSUS | INDIGENOUS POPULATION | WOMEN | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE CUMULATIVE FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USE-EFFECTIVENESS | EVALUATION | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Contraceptive Effectiveness | Contraception | Family Planning
Document Number: 342262

14.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Global demographic convergence? A reconsideration of changing intercountry inequality in fertility.
Author: Dorius SF
Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Sep;34(3):519-537.
Abstract: This research challenges the notion that the second half of the twentieth century was a period of global demographic convergence. To be sure, fertility rates fell substantially during the period, but with considerable un-evenness. The declines in total fertility across population-weighted countries were sufficiently disproportionate that intercountry fertility inequality, estimated using standard measures of inequality, did not begin to decline until at least 1995. Regression analysis also shows that only very recently did lagging countries begin to catch up with countries that began the transition to low fertility earlier. Contrary to findings on changing intercountry health inequality, sub-Saharan Africa has had a greater impact on changes in fertility inequality than China. The trend in fertility inequality, where convergence is a relatively new phenomenon, stands in contrast to trends in inequality in other domains, such as income, education, and health. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY CHANGES | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements
Document Number: 328099

15.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Rapid fertility decline in Iran: Analysis of intermediate variables.
Author: Erfani A; McQuillan K
Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 May;40(3):459-478.
Abstract: The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2-0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | THEORETICAL MODELS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BIRTH SPACING | Developing Countries | Middle East | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Fertility Changes | Contraception | Family Planning | Marriage | Nuptiality
Document Number: 325414

16.

Peer Reviewed

Title: The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society.
Author: Fokkema T; de Valk H; de Beer J; van Duin C
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(21):743-794.
Abstract: The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period total fertility rate in the Netherlands has stabilized since the late 1970s at around 1.6 children per woman, and it has even risen slightly since 1995. In addition, although the Netherlands has one of the oldest first-time mothers, completed fertility is still rather high compared to other European countries, suggesting a strong "catching up" of births by women in their thirties. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the main driving forces behind specific fertility trends in the Netherlands. Among other factors, it focuses on changing patterns of home leaving and union formation, declining partnership stability, and the growing acceptability and use of contraception. The chapter also looks at prolonged education, rising labor-force participation of women, economic uncertainties, the growing migrant population, and family policies. Data allowing, and to the extent possible, we examine the effects of these factors on decision-making about parenthood and the timing of childbearing. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY DECLINE | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE AGE | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | ILLEGITIMACY | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MATERNAL AGE | FAMILY SIZE | DIVORCE | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Social Problems | Contraception | Family Planning | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Human Resources | Economic Factors
Document Number: 327728

17.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe.
Author: Frejka T
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(7):139-170.
Abstract: Societal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the latter behaviour (job insecurity, unstable partnership relationships, expensive housing, and profound changes in norms, values and attitudes) were the following: increasing proportions of young people were acquiring advanced education, a majority of women were gainfully employed, yet women were performing most household maintenance and childrearing duties. Two theories prevailed to explain what caused changes in family formation and fertility trends. One argues that the economic and social crises were the principal causes. The other considered the diffusion of western norms, values and attitudes as the prime factors of change. Neither reveals the root cause: the replacement of state socialist regimes with economic and political institutions of contemporary capitalism. The extraordinarily low period TFRs around 2000 were the result of low fertility of older women born around 1960 overlapping with low fertility of young women born during the 1970s. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | FAMILY SIZE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | SOCIAL CHANGE | FEMALE ROLE | ECONOMIC FACTORS | POLITICAL FACTORS | SOCIAL POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | Developed Countries | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Reproductive Behavior | Social Behavior | Behavior | Policy
Document Number: 327717

18.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Twenty years' demographic change in sedentes and migrants of an international migrant-sending community in Tonga.
Author: Fukuyama S; Watanabe C; Umezaki M; Ohtsuka R
Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008;:1-11.
Abstract: In the Kingdom of Tonga, migration to overseas developed countries has prevailed. To elucidate the effects of migration on population dynamics, an interview survey was conducted in the migrant-sending community of Kolovai, in the outer region of Tongatapu Island. All births, deaths, marriages and in- and out-migrations that took place between 1983 and 2002 were recorded for all members of the 'Kolovai population', consisting of persons who had lived in this community for at least a one-year period during this 20 years. The 'Kolovai population' members, numbering 1184 (564 males and 620 females), were divided into three groups based on residence at the end of each year, i.e. Kolovai (called KK), other places in Tonga (KT) or overseas countries (KO). The KK population decreased from 774 in 1982 to 570 in 2002, owing mostly to an increase of 167 persons as the natural balance and a decrease of 324 persons as the balance of international migration. Comparison of total fertility rate (TFR) between KK and KO women revealed that the mean TFR of the former decreased from 3.460 in the earlier 10-year period (1983-1992) to 2.240 in the later 10-year period (1993-2002), while that of the latter was more than 3.5 in both 10-year periods. This difference was largely due to the decrease in the proportion married among KK women. If the current trends of international migration and fertility continue, the population of Kolovai will be reduced and its age composition will become cylinder-shaped in the near future. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
TONGA | RESEARCH REPORT | SURVEYS | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | FERTILITY CHANGES | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | Developing Countries | Oceania | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Migration | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Marriage | Nuptiality
Document Number: 327010

19.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation.
Author: Garssen J; Nicolaas H
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 18;19(33):1249-1280.
Abstract: Cohort data by generation for Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands indicate that the first generation adjust their fertility levels only slowly to that of native Dutch women. These women show even higher rates than presently reported by the countries of origin, and few signs of assimilation in (fertility) behaviour. The second generation, on the other hand, are much closer to native women in this respect than to their mothers. Adjustment to the native Dutch fertility pattern is caused by intergenerational differences, rather than by cultural assimilation of the first generation. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
NETHERLANDS | TURKEY | MOROCCO | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MIGRANTS | ETHNIC GROUPS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Developing Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Africa, North | Africa | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Migration | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics
Document Number: 327754

20.
Peer Reviewed

Title: Sex ratio at birth and racial differences: why do black women give birth to more females than non-black women?
Author: Kaba AJ
Source: African Journal of Reproductive Health. 2008 Dec;12(3):139-50.
Abstract: The two important questions that this paper will attempt to answer are: (1) why is it that regardless of race/ethnicity or geographic location, the sex ratio data at birth show more males than females?; and (2) Why is it that regardless of geographic location compared to other racial/ethnic groups, Black women or Women of sub-Saharan Black African descent tend to give birth to more females? Or to put this question the other way around, compared to Black women, why do non-Black women give birth to more males?
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | BLACKS | ETHNIC GROUPS | SEX RATIO | SEX FACTORS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics
Document Number: 341422

21.

Title: Factors responsible for the rapid decline of fertility in Nepal -- an interpretation. Further analysis of the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey.
Author: Karki YB; Krishna R
Source: Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, MEASURE DHS, 2008 May. [30] p. (Nepal Further Analysis No. 52USAID Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00)
Abstract: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Nepal in mid-1976 was estimated at 6.3 births per woman, contraceptive use among currently married women was low (3 percent) and the proportion married was high. Given these demographic parameters, no immediate change in the fertility rate in Nepal seemed plausible. In recent years however, several researchers have noted that a fertility transition has been underway in Nepal. Many factors-socioeconomic and biological-may have contributed to this precipitous decline in fertility. However, actual levels and rates of change in fertility are less certain because they also depend on the quality of data and the accuracy of measurements used. Ideally, it would have been better to re-examine the levels and trends of fertility from the survey data with earlier surveys. Instead, the focus of this paper is on examining the possible factors underlying the recent unprecedented declines in fertility. The principal measure of fertility in this part of the analysis is the total fertility rate (TFR). The paper is organized into three main parts. The first part deals with fertility levels, trends and differentials. The second part discusses the role of intermediate or proximate factors and the final part deals with the contextual or antecedent factors affecting these intermediate factors. Survey data are used to analyze the proximate determinants of fertility decline. The results of the analysis provide quantitative estimates of the contribution of changes in contraceptive use, marriage, breastfeeding and postpartum insusceptibility to the observed decline. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
NEPAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Contraception | Family Planning
Document Number: 327804

22.
Title: First birth in Russia: Everyone does it -- young.
Author: Kesseli K
Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:41-62.
Abstract: Until the early 1990s, the common characteristics of Russian fertility were early and almost universal marriage and childbearing. In this article I examine the impact of cohort on first birth. I follow Russian women (based on self-reported ethnicity) born between 1930 and 1986 by applying event history techniques to the Russian Generation and Gender Survey (GSS). The results show that first birth took place earlier in women s lives cohorts born from the 1930s to the 1960s cohort. Among younger women, the trend is opposite, but it is too early to speak of a strong postponement effect. Differences in first-birth risk between cohorts are due to differences in marriage and cohabitation patterns. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
RUSSIA | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS | WOMEN | COUPLES | MATERNAL AGE | FIRST BIRTH | AGE FACTORS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | Asia, Northern | Asia | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Analysis | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Parental Age | Population Characteristics | Pregnancy History | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Marriage | Nuptiality | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors
Document Number: 326068

23.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Romania: Childbearing metamorphosis within a changing context.
Author: Muresan C; Haragus PT; Haragus M; Schroder C
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(23):855-906.
Abstract: In 1989, the socialist regime in Romania collapsed and the state's coercive pro-natalist policy ended. Since then, fertility has gone through major changes, namely, a massive reduction in fertility and important structural changes: birth postponement, an end to universal childbearing, and the emergence of non-marital births. Family formation has been postponed, but a pattern of early marriage still persists compared to other European countries. Although unmarried cohabitation is rising, it is rarely seen as an alternative to marriage. Modern contraceptive methods are being used increasingly, but traditional contraceptive methods continue to be widespread. Abortion, which was relegalized in 1989 and made available after two decades of prohibition, has been practiced extensively ever since, especially after first birth. Romanians in 2004 continue to have a universal preference for parenting. However, the preference for the two-child family has declined and the desire for a larger family has become the exception. The transformation of the socialist regime into a democratic society with a market economy generated a socio-economic crisis, and the majority of social benefits have therefore been oriented towards alleviating poverty. Other social policies, including those affecting the family, were redefined. However, fewer funds were made available than for those geared to promote economic development or reduce poverty and, as a consequence, their impact on childbearing has been small. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
ROMANIA | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY CHANGES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | SOCIAL CHANGE | POLITICAL FACTORS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | FAMILY SIZE | PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | BIRTH INTERVALS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | ABORTION | Developing Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Europe | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Sociocultural Factors | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Parity | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning
Document Number: 327662 Notification

24.

Title: Fertility transition in sub-saharan Africa: falling and stalling.
Author: Shapiro D; Gebreselassie T
Source: African Population Studies. 2008;Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, 2008. 23(1):3-23. 104 p. (DHS Comparative Reports No. 19)
Abstract: This paper uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the current status of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa, including the extent to which fertility decline has stalled. Among the two dozen countries covered by multiple surveys, 22 have initiated fertility transition, and a third of these countries have experienced stalling of fertility decline. We study the links between changes in contraceptive use, fertility preferences, and socioeconomic development (as reflected in changes in women's education, infant and child mortality, and real per-capita economic growth) and fertility decline and stalling. Changes in the measures of socioeconomic development are all related to the likelihood of stalling. We also analyze determinants of age-specific fertility rates in urban and rural places, and assess future prospects for fertility decline in the region. Progress in increasing women's educational attainment and in reducing infant and child mortality are identified as key factors contributing to sustained fertility decline. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | INFANT MORTALITY | CHILD MORTALITY | INCOME | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Mortality | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements
Document Number: 329522

25.
Title: HIV and fertility decline in North-Central Namibia 1980 -- 2004.
Author: Shemeikka R; Notkola V; Kuhanen J; Siiskonen H
Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:7-32.
Abstract: The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility and the impact of HIV on this development in North-Central Namibia from 1980 to 2004. The main sources of data consisted of parish registers for eight Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys and the 1991 and 2001 population censuses. Developments infertility were studied using the total fertility rate (TFR), age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), and standardized fertility distributions. The results show that fertility declined from 5.0 in 1980-89 to 4.1 in 1990-99 and to 3.5 in 2000-04. Among women in the 25-29 age group and older, fertility declined, while fertility among adolescents increased. Both age at first marriage and premarital fertility increased during the study period. During the 1990s, HIV infection explained 25-29% of the decline in total fertility. If mortality continues to increase as a result of the HIV epidemic while fertility continues to decline, both because of HIV infection and for other societal reasons, the implications for future population growth rates and the country's demographic structure are pronounced. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
NAMIBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | HIV INFECTIONS | PARISH REGISTERS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE AGE | PREMARITAL PREGNANCY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Studies | Research Methodology | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Statistics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Reproductive Behavior
Document Number: 326067

26.

Peer Reviewed

Title: England and Wales: Stable fertility and pronounced social status differences.
Author: Sigle-Rushton W
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(15):455-502.
Abstract: For nearly three decades, the total fertility rate in England and Wales has remained high relative to other European countries, and stable at about 1.7 births per woman. In this chapter, we examine trends in both period and cohort fertility throughout the twentieth century, and demonstrate some important differences across demographic and social groups in the timing and quantum of fertility. Breaking with a market-oriented and laissez-faire approach to work and family issues, the last 10 years have seen the introduction of new social and economic policies aimed at providing greater support to families with children. However, the effect of the changes is likely to be limited to families on the lower end of the income scale. Rather than facilitating work and parenthood, some policies create incentives for a traditional gendered division of labour. Fertility appears to have remained stable despite, rather than because of, government actions. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
UNITED KINGDOM | WALES | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY CHANGES | FAMILY SIZE, COMPLETED | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT | SEX BEHAVIOR | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | ABORTION | SOCIAL CHANGE | SOCIAL CLASS | SOCIAL POLICY | ECONOMIC POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | United Kingdom | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage | Nuptiality | Behavior | Contraception | Family Planning | Fertility Control, Postconception | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Policy | Political Factors
Document Number: 327723 Notification

27.

Peer Reviewed

Title: France: High and stable fertility.
Author: Toulemon L; Pailhe A; Rossier C
Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(16):503-556.
Abstract: The current total fertility rate in France is around 1.9 children per woman. This is a relatively high level by current European standards and makes France an outlier, despite the fact that its other demographic trends, especially conjugal behaviour, and social and economic trends are not very different from other Western European countries. France can serve as a counterfactual test case for some of the hypotheses advanced to explain the current low level of fertility in most European countries (delay in fertility, decline in marriage, increased birth control, greater economic uncertainty). France's fertility level can be partly explained by its active family policy introduced after the Second World War, and adapted in the 1980s to accommodate women's entry into the labour force. This policy is the result of a battle, fuelled by pro-natalism, between the conservative supporters of family values and the promoters of state-supported individual equality. French family policy thus encompasses a wide range of measures based on varying ideological backgrounds, and it is difficult to classify in comparison to the more precisely focused family policies of other European welfare states. The active family policy seems to have created especially positive attitudes towards two- or three child families in France. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
FRANCE | RESEARCH REPORT | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | YOUTH | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | ABORTION | POPULATION FORECAST | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Contraception | Family Planning | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Fertility Control, Postconception | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology
Document Number: 327724 Notification

28.
Title: [Maternal mortality decrease at IMSS, 2000-2005. As a result of specific actions or by chance?] El descenso de la mortalidad materna en el IMSS, 2000-2005. inverted question
Author: Velasco-Murillo V; Navarrete-Hernandez E; de la Cruz-Mejia L
Source: Revista Medica Del Instituto Mexicano Del Seguro Social. 2008 Mar-Apr;46(2):211-8.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: to assessment the epidemiological characteristics and evolution of maternal hospital deaths at Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) on the years 2000-2005 and to analyze a possible relation with a specific program to reduce it, starting in 2001. METHODS: we collected and studied data about 253 and 144 hospital maternal deaths between 2000 and 2005, respectively. We compared rates, causes, type of obstetrical death, age, parity, history of prenatal care and preventability at admission in hospitals were the women died. Data about live births in were obtained from the official Information Medical System of IMSS. The analysis was made with descriptive statistical measures and values of chi(2). RESULTS: the maternal mortality rate fell by 30.8 %, as result of a decline from 39 per 100,000 live births in 2000, to 27 in 2005; the proportion of direct obstetric deaths showed a reduction from 77.1 to 66.7 %; all the specific-age mortality rates felt too, but with some variability. Preeclampsia-eclampsia, hemorrhages and abortion were responsible for more of 50 % of total deaths in both years compared. We did not observe significant changes in other variables. CONCLUSIONS: the reduction in general rate of hospital maternal mortality, in percentage of direct obstetric causes of death and specific-age rates were chronologically coincidental with the development of a program to increase opportunity and quality of obstetric care at the whole institution. The results let us think there is a possible cause-effect relation. It is imperative to conduct a more long-term observation to confirm this epidemiological phenomenon.
Language: Spanish
Keywords:
MEXICO | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGY | MATERNAL MORTALITY | DEATH RATE | CAUSES OF DEATH | AGE FACTORS | PARITY | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | PREECLAMPSIA | BLEEDING | ABORTION | North America | Americas | Developing Countries | Public Health | Health | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Pregnancy Complications | Diseases | Signs and Symptoms | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning
Document Number: 330331 Notification

29.

Peer Reviewed

Title: Interpregnancy weight gain and the male-to-female sex ratio of the second pregnancy: A population-based cohort study.
Author: Villamor E; Sparen P; Cnattingius S
Source: Fertility and Sterility. 2008 May;89(5):1240-1244.
Abstract: The objectives were to investigate whether interpregnancy maternal weight change (difference between body mass index [BMI] at the first antenatal visit of the second pregnancy and BMI at the first antenatal visit of the first pregnancy) or changes in smoking status between pregnancies is related to the sex ratio of the second pregnancy. The design was a population-based cohort study. The setting was a Swedish Birth Registry. The participant(s) were a total of 220,889 women who had their first two consecutive singleton births between 1992 and 2004. Both live births and stillbirths were included. The intervention(s) were the analyses of data collected prospectively in nationwide registries. The main outcome measure(s) were male-to-female sex ratio of the second pregnancy. The sex ratio of the second pregnancy increased linearly with the amount of maternal weight change from the first to the second pregnancies, from 1.024 in women who lost more than 1 unit BMI to 1.080 in women who gained 3 or more units. This association was independent of obstetric complications, length of the interpregnancy interval, and maternal sociodemographic characteristics at the second pregnancy. Change in maternal smoking status from the first to the second pregnancies was not significantly related to the sex ratio of the second pregnancy. There could be a causal relation between prepregnant maternal weight gain and the sex ratio of the offspring. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | SWEDEN | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | PREGNANT WOMEN | SEX RATIO | BODY WEIGHT | OBESITY | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | MATERNAL NUTRITION | PREGNANCY OUTCOMES | Europe, Northern | Europe | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Physiology | Biology | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Nutrition | Health | Pregnancy | Reproduction
Document Number: 327228

30.

Title: The future population of India. A long-range demographic view.
Author: Population Foundation of India; Population Reference Bureau [PRB]
Source: New Delhi, India, Population Foundation of India, 2007 Aug. 15 p.
Abstract: India's population passed the one billion mark in 2000 and, this year, celebrated its 60th year as an independent country. Its population is likely to pass China's as the world's largest within 20 years. All of this leads quite naturally to the question: how large might the population of the world's largest democracy become? This is the question that the Population Foundation of India and its partner, the Population Reference Bureau, have addressed to project India's population for the long term. In this publication, two scenarios of India's future population are offered. Both assume that fertility will decline continuously to the point where couples average two children each, the goal of India's National Population Policy 2000. The scenarios differ in one respect: one assumes that states with higher current fertility will decline to the "replacement level" of 2.1 children, a common assumption in projections. The second assumes that the decline will continue to 1.85 children, near the level observed in states such as Kerala. The first scenario results in an India of two billion population while the second falls short of that mark and results in eventual population decline. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
INDIA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | POPULATION GROWTH | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Length of Life
Document Number: 320374


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