1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Examining the geographical heterogeneity associated with risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy in Ghana. Author: Amoako Johnson F; Madise NJ Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2009 Mar;41(2):249-67. Abstract: After a decade of fertility decline, Ghana's fertility and the level of unmet need for contraception stalled in mid-transition in the late 1990s. Although the literature acknowledges this, the geographical patterns in unmet need have not been adequately documented. Spatial analysis of unmet need can reveal differences in usage and provision of contraceptive commodities, thereby pointing to geographical areas where contraceptive programmes should be strengthened. This study examines the geographical variation of the risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies between rural communities and also between urban communities of the three ecological zones of Ghana. The study also investigates if geographical differences in the risks of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies changed during the period when unmet need stalled at the national level. A multilevel regression model was applied to pooled data from the 1998 and 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the determinants of the risk of unintended pregnancies, while controlling for clustering of outcomes within communities. The results show that between the two surveys, there was no significant change in the levels of risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy. However, geographical heterogeneity in the risk of mistimed and unwanted pregnancy was observed, after controlling for relevant predictors. This showed concentration of mistimed pregnancies in some rural communities relative to others, and variation in the risk of unwanted pregnancies between urban communities. The results give a clear indication that bridging the inequality gap in contraceptive use requires programmes that are area-specific. Language: English Keywords: GHANA | RESEARCH REPORT | NEEDS | HETEROGENEITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | PREGNANCY, UNPLANNED | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | INEQUALITIES | NEEDS ASSESSMENT | Developing Countries | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Reproductive Behavior | Contraception | Family Planning | Socioeconomic Factors | Evaluation Document Number: 331181 |
| 2. Title: A response to critics of family planning programs. Author: Bongaarts J; Sinding SW Source: International Perspectives On Sexual and Reproductive Health. 2009 Mar;35(1):39-44. Abstract: This article presents critiques of family planning programs and then provides rebuttals. Critiques addressed are as follows: family planning programs have little or no effect on fertility; fertility declines are under way everywhere, so the population problem has largely been solved and family planning programs are no longer needed; the death toll of the AIDS epidemic makes family planning undesirable and unnecessary; family planning programs are not cost-effective; family planning programs at best have made women the instruments of population control policies and, at worst, have been coercive. Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | SUMMARY REPORT | POPULATION GROWTH | FAMILY PLANNING | POVERTY | FERTILITY DECLINE | AIDS | DEATH RATE | NEEDS | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Mortality Document Number: 341315 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: Causes of maternal mortality decline in Matlab, Bangladesh. Author: Chowdhury ME; Ahmed A; Kalim N; Koblinsky M Source: Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition. 2009 Apr;27(2):108-23. Abstract: Bangladesh is distinct among developing countries in achieving a low maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 322 per 100,000 livebirths despite the very low use of skilled care at delivery (13% nationally). This variation has also been observed in Matlab, a rural area in Bangladesh, where longitudinal data on maternal mortality are available since the mid-1970s. The current study investigated the possible causes of the maternal mortality decline in Matlab. The study analyzed 769 maternal deaths and 215,779 pregnancy records from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and other sources of safe motherhood data in the ICDDR,B and government service areas in Matlab during 1976-2005. The major interventions that took place in both the areas since the early 1980s were the family-planning programme plus safe menstrual regulation services and safe motherhood interventions (midwives for normal delivery in the ICDDR,B service area from the late 1980s and equal access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care [EmOC] in public facilities for women from both the areas). National programmes for social development and empowerment of women through education and microcredit programmes were implemented in both the areas. The quantitative findings were supplemented by a qualitative study by interviewing local community care providers for their change in practices for maternal healthcare over time. After the introduction of the safe motherhood programme, reduction in maternal mortality was higher in the ICDDR,B service area (68.6%) than in the government service area (50.4%) during 1986-1989 and 2001-2005. Reduction in the number of maternal deaths due to the fertility decline was higher in the government service area (30%) than in the ICDDR,B service area (23%) during 1979-2005. In each area, there has been substantial reduction in abortion-related mortality--86.7% and 78.3%--in the ICDDR,B and government service areas respectively. Education of women was a strong predictor of the maternal mortality decline in both the areas. Possible explanations for the maternal mortality decline in Matlab are: better access to comprehensive EmOC services, reduction in the total fertility rate, and improved education of women. To achieve the Millenium Development Goal 5 targets, policies that bring further improved comprehensive EmOC, strengthened family-planning services, and expanded education of females are essential. Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | RURAL AREAS | RESEARCH REPORT | MATERNAL MORTALITY | MORTALITY DECLINE | CAUSES OF DEATH | RISK FACTORS | SAFE MOTHERHOOD | OBSTETRICS | EMERGENCY SERVICES | PROGRAM ACCESSIBILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Health | Maternal Health | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 341939 |
| 4. Peer Reviewed Title: Toward replacement fertility in Egypt and Tunisia. Author: Eltigani EE Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2009 Sep;40(3):215-226. Abstract: Egypt and Tunisia began their fertility transition at almost identical fertility levels and at roughly the same time period, yet the difference in the pace of decline has been such that the total fertility rate (TFR) in Tunisia reached replacement level by the year 2001, whereas the TFR in Egypt remains above three live births per woman. This article draws on the secondary literature and on several nationally representative surveys from the two countries between 1978 and 2005 to provide empirical evidence of the difference in the pace of fertility decline and to analyze the determinants of the differential. Findings include (a) variation across the two countries in the consistency of fertility decline among the segments of the population leading the transition; (b) that the success of each country’s family planning program was influenced by the role of political leaders and the extent of the program’s integration with socioeconomic development objectives; (c) that the impact of contraception on TFR decline became an important factor in the mid-1980s; and (d) that the greatest determinant of the discrepancy in the pace of fertility decline is the disparity in age at marriage, which rose more significantly in Tunisia than in Egypt. The latter finding indicates that reaching replacement fertility in Egypt hinges primarily on further declines in marital fertility, resulting from reduction of wanted fertility and from an expansion of family planning program coverage and improved efficiency of service delivery and use. Language: English Keywords: EGYPT | TUNISIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LITERATURE REVIEW | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | MARITAL FERTILITY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | HEALTH SERVICES | DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE | Developing Countries | Africa, North | Africa | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Economic Factors | Family Planning | Health Document Number: 339703 |
| 5. Peer Reviewed Title: Does sex of children matter? Implications for fertility in Pakistan. Author: Muhammad A Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2009 Jan;41(1):39-50. Abstract: Preference for children of either sex is considered a constraint on fertility decline as it induces many couples to keep adding on surviving children in the hope of having a desired sex composition of children. However, preferences for children of a particular sex may differ in relation to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women, traditional values and cultural practices, such as propagating a family name, providing economic advantages, and obtaining a medium of social and economic security in times of illness, unemployment and old age. Utilizing the Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (2001-02), this paper aims at investigating the existence of sex preference and examines sex preference differentials by different attributes of women in Pakistan. The results reveal that there is a desire to have another child in the presence of all children of one sex, either sons or daughters. The desire to have a son with only or mostly daughters, however, is stronger than the desire to have a daughter with only or mostly sons. This behaviour will retard fertility decline unless there is a shift in the desire to have children of both sexes in Pakistan. Language: English Keywords: PAKISTAN | RESEARCH REPORT | SURVEYS | SONS | DAUGHTERS | SEX PREFERENCE | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | FERTILITY DECLINE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Value Orientation | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes Document Number: 330511 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Author: Myrskyla M; Kohler HP; Billari FC Source: Nature. 2009 Aug 6;460(7256):741-3. Abstract: During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Migration Document Number: 342781 |
7.  Title: Youth, women's rights, and political change in Iran. Author: Roudi F Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Jul. [1] p. Abstract: Recent political developments in Iran highlight the country's demographic and social shifts over the past 20 years. One in three Iranians is between the ages of 15 and 29. Furthermore, 60 percent of the Iranian population is under 30, born around the 1979 Islamic revolution or after. This youth bulge, along with changes in women's fertility and reproductive health, provide a backdrop for understanding Iran's current political instability. Language: English Keywords: IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | YOUTH | WOMEN | WOMEN'S RIGHTS | POLITICAL FACTORS | CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | Middle East | Developing Countries | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Rights | Sociocultural Factors | Social Change | Sex Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics Document Number: 342028 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: How Increased Contraceptive Use has Reduced Maternal Mortality. Author: Stover J; Ross J Source: Maternal and Child Health Journal. 2009 Jul 31; Abstract: It is widely recognized that family planning contributes to reducing maternal mortality by reducing the number of births and, thus, the number of times a woman is exposed to the risk of mortality. Here we show evidence that it also lowers the risk per birth, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), by preventing high-risk, high-parity births. This study seeks to quantify these contributions to lower maternal mortality as the use of family planning rose over the period from 1990 to 2005. We use estimates from United Nations organizations of MMRs and the total fertility rate (TFR) to estimate the number of births averted-and, consequently, the number of maternal deaths directly averted-as the TFR in the developing world dropped. We use data from 146 Demographic and Health Surveys on contraceptive use and the distribution of births by risk factor, as well as special country data sets on the MMR by parity and age, to explore the impacts of contraceptive use on high-risk births and, thus, on the MMR. Over 1 million maternal deaths were averted between 1990 and 2005 because the fertility rate in developing countries declined. Furthermore, by reducing demographically high-risk births in particular, especially high-parity births, family planning reduced the MMR and thus averted additional maternal deaths indirectly. This indirect effect can reduce a county's MMR by an estimated 450 points during the transition from low to high levels of contraceptive use. Increases in the use of modern contraceptives have made and can continue to make an important contribution to reducing maternal mortality in the developing world. Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | MORTALITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL AGE | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | PREGNANCY, HIGH RISK | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Contraception | Family Planning | Mortality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Pregnancy | Reproduction Document Number: 342297 |
| 9. Peer Reviewed Title: Sweeping changes in marriage, cohabitation and childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: new insights from the developmental idealism framework Transformations radicales du mariage, de la cohabitation et de la cohabitation et de la procreation en Europe Centrale et Orientale: de nouvelles perspectives a partir de la conception ideationnelle du developpement. Author: Thornton A; Philipov D Source: European Journal of Population. 2009 May;25(2):123-156. Abstract: In Central and Eastern Europe following the political transformations of the late 1980s and early 1990s, there were dramatic declines in marriage and childbearing, significant increases in nonmarital cohabitation and childbearing, and a movement from reliance on abortion to a reliance on contraception for fertility limitation. Although many explanations have been offered for these trends, we offer new explanations based on ideational influences and the intersection of these ideational influences with structural factors. We focus on the political, economic, social, and cultural histories of the region, with particular emphasis on how countries in the region have interacted with and been influenced by Western European and North American countries. Our explanations emphasize the role of developmental models in guiding change in the region, suggesting that developmental idealism influenced family and demographic changes following the political transformations. Developmental idealism provides beliefs that modern family systems help to produce modern political and economic accomplishments, and it helps establish the importance of freedom and equality as human rights in both the public and private spheres. The disintegration of the governments and the fall of the iron curtain in the late 1980s and early 1990s brought new understanding about social, economic, and family circumstances in the West, increasing consumption aspirations and expectations which clashed with both old economic realities and the dramatic declines in economic circumstances. In addition, the dissolution of the former governments removed or weakened systems supporting the bearing and rearing of children; and the legitimacy of the former governments and their programs was largely destroyed, thereby removing government support for old norms and patterns of behavior. In addition, the attacks of previous decades on the religious institutions in the region had in many places left these institutions weak. During this period, many openly reached out to embrace the values, living standards, and economic, political, and familial systems of the West. And, the thirst for freedom-and its considerable expansion-operated in personal and familial as well as political and economic realms. These dramatic changes combined together to produce the many changes occurring in family and demographic behavior. Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, CENTRAL | EUROPE, EASTERN | HISTORICAL REVIEW | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | CONSENSUAL UNION | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIAL CHANGE | POLITICAL FACTORS | ECONOMIC CONDITIONS | SOCIALISM | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | VALUE ORIENTATION | Developing Countries | Europe | Developed Countries | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Sociocultural Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Political Systems | Contraception | Family Planning | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 340171 |
| 10. Title: 2008 Africa population data sheet. Author: African Population and Health Research Center; Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008. 11 p. Abstract: Even as African women use family planning more and bear fewer children, the continent's youthful population will fuel the continent's growth for many decades to come. Africa's population of 967 million is projected to grow to 1.9 billion by 2050, according to the 2008 Africa Population Data Sheet, produced by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) and the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC). The report highlights the regional differences within Africa, especially between sub-Saharan and Northern Africa. Contraceptive use has increased fastest in Northern and Southern Africa, and as a result, the number of children the average woman in those regions has during her lifetime has dropped from nearly six children in the early 1980s to around three in 2005. This has slowed population growth in those regions. In most Eastern, Western, and Middle African countries, however, use of family planning remains low, and fertility rates have dropped little, with women averaging between five and six children. Educational attainment, considered an important element in reducing poverty, has increased in many countries, especially at the primary level. But fewer than 75 percent of primary school-age children were enrolled in primary school in Chad, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and several other countries. African countries have made less progress getting children to advance to secondary school. For all of sub-Saharan Africa, the average net enrollment for secondary school is 28 percent. The 2008 Africa Population Data Sheet also includes a series of indicators on population growth, urbanization, family planning use, teenage motherhood, HIV/AIDS, and gross national income per capita for African countries. Language: English Keywords: AFRICA | TABLES AND CHARTS | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | INFANT MORTALITY | HIV INFECTIONS | SCHOOL ENROLLMENT | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | CHILD HEALTH | MATERNAL HEALTH | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Mortality | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Health Document Number: 328222 |
| 11. Title: Fertility behavior in Armenia and Moldova: the decline during the post-Soviet transition and current preferences. Author: Billingsley S Source: Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, MEASURE DHS, 2008 Jul. 45 p. (USAID Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00DHS Working Papers No. 45) Abstract: In the context of a fertility decline across the countries of the former Eastern bloc, this paper analyzes the fertility decline in Armenia and Moldova using 2005 Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) data. Easterlin's (1976) hypothesis about the negative impact on fertility of reducing living standards is contrasted with Becker's (1981) theory of opportunity costs. If Easterlin's hypothesis is true, we would expect to see women with lower resources suppress fertility because of the hardships brought on by the economic transition, especially for those with fewer marketable skills. Conversely, if Becker's theory is correct, opportunity costs would lead women with the highest earning potential to suppress their fertility. Specifically, the extent of parity declines is analyzed during the transition from Communism, with special attention given to identifying women for whom parity declines are greater. The conditions under which women currently want children are also analyzed to determine if a relationship exists between economic conditions and the desire for another child or the desired timing of childbirth. Since 1986, parity progression ratios have declined more for women with vocational education than for women with higher education or secondary education only. Logistic analyses of current fertility preferences suggest that women who are employed are more likely to want a second birth in both countries, whereas the wealthiest women in Armenia have higher odds of wanting a third birth. Armenian women have higher odds of wanting to postpone the next birth if their partners are unemployed, whereas Moldovan women who are employed prefer to postpone their next childbirth. Language: English Keywords: ARMENIA | MOLDOVA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | SEXUAL PARTNERS | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | STANDARD OF LIVING | MICROECONOMIC FACTORS | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FAMILY SIZE, DESIRED | UNEMPLOYMENT | Asia, Southwestern | Asia | Developing Countries | Europe, Eastern | Europe | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Sex Behavior | Behavior | Fertility | Fertility Changes | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Employment | Macroeconomic Factors Document Number: 329537 |
| 12. Peer Reviewed Title: Demography, culture, and policy: Understanding Japan's low fertility. Author: Boling P Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):307-326. Abstract: Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs. (author's) Language: English Keywords: JAPAN | FRANCE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FAMILY POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | LABOR FORCE | GENDER ISSUES | PRONATALIST POLICY | POLITICAL SYSTEMS | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | CHILD CARE | FEMALE ROLE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Child Rearing | Behavior | Social Behavior Document Number: 327375 |
| 13. Title: Fertility transition: forecast for demography. Author: Caputo M; Nicotra M; Gloria-Bottini E Source: Human Biology. 2008 Aug;80(4):359-76. Abstract: By the end of the 20th century most industrialized nations had undergone the so-called fertility transition, characterized by a reduction in fertility to below replacement level and a delay in age at initiation of child-bearing. An emerging concern is the severe economic and social consequences of this demographic decline. We present an overview of fertility changes in Italy in the second half of the 20th century and a mathematical model that may provide projections for the future of the demographic situation. Starting in 1950 the increment of the number of children born in Italy is initially positive; however, beginning in 1965 the trend suddenly becomes negative, and this negative trend further increased in 1975. A slight improvement is observed in 1980, followed by a stable situation beginning in 1987. Relevant socioeconomic and cultural events in Italy coincide with these variations in the fertility trend. Malnutrition, which had been endemic for centuries in some areas of central and southern Italy, disappeared rather abruptly in early 1960. The improvement in the economic situation was also associated with a decrease in illiteracy and with many sociocultural changes, with the emergence of new demands that decreased propensity for childbearing. The additional deceleration observed in 1975 corresponds to the diffusion of contraceptive procedures. The progression of sociocultural changes has led to a progressive liberation of women from the biological burden of childbearing. Two phenomena seem relevant in this context: women's emerging interest in entering the workforce and the possibility to disconnect sex from childbearing. The social function of feminism has overwhelmed the primary function of survival and diffusion of the species, giving rise to relevant and worrying demographic effects. However, the modern woman has an unconscious memory of her primary biological role, depending on both her genetic structure and cultural heritage, that should bring about a change in the present strong tendency to demographic decline. The basic notion of memory functions is widely recognized in sciences, for example, in the evolutionary theory of Darwin. Here, we introduce into the equations governing population growth a memory mechanism and a perturbation, and we estimate the reactions of the system to perturbations caused by environmental changes and subsequent delayed effects, such as those that appear in the birth rate beginning in 1965 and 1975. The mathematical modeling of the effects of perturbations of the fertility rate in the Italian population, with the introduction of a mathematical memory formalism, suggests that the effect is strongly reduced, with a relaxation time of about 10 years when the fertility rate approaches a stable value. Language: English Keywords: ITALY | HISTORICAL REVIEW | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Southern | Europe | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Economic Factors | Reproductive Behavior Document Number: 342321 |
| 14. Title: Pensions with heterogenous individuals and endogenous fertility. Author: Cremer H; Gahvari F; Pestieau P Source: Journal of Population Economics. 2008 Oct;21(4):961-981. Abstract: We study the design of pension schemes when fertility is endogenous and parents differ in ability to raise children. Pay-as-you-go schemes require, under perfect information, a marginal subsidy on fertility to correct for the externality they create, equal pensions, and contributions that increase or decrease with the number of children. Under asymmetric information, incentive-related distortions supplement the Pigouvian subsidy. These require an additional subsidy or an offsetting tax depending on whether the redistribution is towards people with more or with less children. In the former case, pensions are decreasing in the number of children; otherwise, they are increasing. Language: English Keywords: FRANCE | RESEARCH REPORT | SOCIAL SECURITY | OLD AGE SECURITY | MICROECONOMIC FACTORS | FERTILITY DECLINE | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Government Financing | Financial Activities | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 308035 |
| 15. Peer Reviewed Title: Italy: Delayed adaptation of social institutions to changes in family behaviour. Author: De Rose A; Racioppi F; Zanatta AL Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(19):665-704. Abstract: Considering its very low fertility and high age at childbearing, Italy stands alone in the European context and can hardly be compared with other countries, even those in the Southern region. The fertility decline occurred without any radical change in family formation. Individuals still choose (religious) marriage for leaving their parental home and rates of marital dissolution and subsequent step-family formation are low. Marriage is being postponed and fewer people marry. The behaviours of young people are particularly alarming. There is a delay in all life cycle stages: end of education, entry into the labour market, exit from the parental family, entry into union, and managing an independent household. Changes in family formation and childbearing are constrained and slowed down by a substantial delay (or even failure) with which the institutional and cultural framework has adapted to changes in economic and social conditions, in particular to the growth of the service sector, the increase in female employment and the female level of education. In a Catholic country that has been led for almost half a century by a political party with a Catholic ideology, the paucity of attention to childhood and youth seems incomprehensible. Social policies focus on marriage-based families already formed and on the phases of life related to pregnancy, delivery, and the first months of a newborn's life, while forming a family and childbearing choices are considered private affairs and neglected. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ITALY | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | FERTILITY DECLINE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | YOUTH | FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS | EMPLOYMENT | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | WOMEN | RELIGIOUS ASPECTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Southern | Europe | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Marriage | Nuptiality | Economic Factors | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Religion Document Number: 327727 |
| 16. Peer Reviewed Title: 'Too many girls, too much dowry': son preference and daughter aversion in rural Tamil Nadu, India. Author: Diamond-Smith N; Luke N; McGarvey S Source: Culture, Health and Sexuality. 2008 Oct;10(7):697-708. Abstract: The southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility, accompanied by a trend of increased son preference. This paper reports on findings from qualitative interviews with women in rural villages about their fertility decision-making. Specifically addressed are the reasons behind increasing son preference and the consequences of this change. Findings suggest that daughter aversion, fuelled primarily by the perceived economic burden of daughters due to the proliferation of dowry, is playing a larger role in fertility decision-making than son preference. The desire for a son is often trumped by the worry over having many daughters. Women use various means of controlling the sex of their children, which in this study appear to be primarily female infanticide. It is important to distinguish between son preference and daughter aversion and to examine repercussions of low fertility within this setting. Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | KAP SURVEYS | RURAL POPULATION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | DOWRY | SEX PREFERENCE | FERTILITY DECLINE | HOME ECONOMICS | PERCEPTION | INFANTICIDE | ATTITUDES | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Nuptiality | Value Orientation | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Microeconomic Factors | Crime | Social Problems | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 329318 |
| 17. Peer Reviewed Title: Rapid fertility decline in Iran: Analysis of intermediate variables. Author: Erfani A; McQuillan K Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 May;40(3):459-478. Abstract: The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2-0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | THEORETICAL MODELS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BIRTH SPACING | Developing Countries | Middle East | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Fertility Changes | Contraception | Family Planning | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 325414 |
| 18. Peer Reviewed Title: The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society. Author: Fokkema T; de Valk H; de Beer J; van Duin C Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(21):743-794. Abstract: The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period total fertility rate in the Netherlands has stabilized since the late 1970s at around 1.6 children per woman, and it has even risen slightly since 1995. In addition, although the Netherlands has one of the oldest first-time mothers, completed fertility is still rather high compared to other European countries, suggesting a strong "catching up" of births by women in their thirties. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the main driving forces behind specific fertility trends in the Netherlands. Among other factors, it focuses on changing patterns of home leaving and union formation, declining partnership stability, and the growing acceptability and use of contraception. The chapter also looks at prolonged education, rising labor-force participation of women, economic uncertainties, the growing migrant population, and family policies. Data allowing, and to the extent possible, we examine the effects of these factors on decision-making about parenthood and the timing of childbearing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY DECLINE | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE AGE | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | ILLEGITIMACY | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MATERNAL AGE | FAMILY SIZE | DIVORCE | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Social Problems | Contraception | Family Planning | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Human Resources | Economic Factors Document Number: 327728 |
| 19. Peer Reviewed Title: Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Author: Frejka T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(7):139-170. Abstract: Societal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the latter behaviour (job insecurity, unstable partnership relationships, expensive housing, and profound changes in norms, values and attitudes) were the following: increasing proportions of young people were acquiring advanced education, a majority of women were gainfully employed, yet women were performing most household maintenance and childrearing duties. Two theories prevailed to explain what caused changes in family formation and fertility trends. One argues that the economic and social crises were the principal causes. The other considered the diffusion of western norms, values and attitudes as the prime factors of change. Neither reveals the root cause: the replacement of state socialist regimes with economic and political institutions of contemporary capitalism. The extraordinarily low period TFRs around 2000 were the result of low fertility of older women born around 1960 overlapping with low fertility of young women born during the 1970s. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | FAMILY SIZE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | SOCIAL CHANGE | FEMALE ROLE | ECONOMIC FACTORS | POLITICAL FACTORS | SOCIAL POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | Developed Countries | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Reproductive Behavior | Social Behavior | Behavior | Policy Document Number: 327717 |
| 20. Peer Reviewed Title: Dramatic fertility transition in Mongolia and its determinants: the demise of the pronatalist state. Author: Gereltuya A Source: Asia Pacific Population Journal. Aug;23(2):81-99. Abstract: The move from a centrally controlled economy to a market-driven economy has had strong political implications for family planning and fertility in Mongolia. Under socialist rule, Mongolia had a strong pronatalist population policy under which those families having children were provided with generous benefits. The changes made to these policies have had a considerable impact on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. In the mid-1970s, the country started to experience a dramatic decrease in the level of fertility, which intensified when the country moved towards a market economy. The country experienced a drop in its total fertility rate (TFR) from 7.2 children per woman (of reproductive age) in 1975 to about 3 children in 1995, and it has remained constant at about 2.3 children since that time. Relatively few studies have been carried out on fertility changes in Mongolia with explanations about their causes, primarily owing to a lack of data sources. The aim of this paper is to examine fertility changes in Mongolia with respect to the changes in population policies and changes in the proximate determinants of fertility that have occurred since the mid-1970s. Language: English Keywords: MONGOLIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION POLICY | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | ABORTION LAW | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Marriage | Nuptiality | Contraception | Family Planning | Fertility Control, Postconception | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Fertility Changes Document Number: 331309 Notification |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility transition and population ageing in the Asian and Pacific region. Author: Gubhaju B Source: Asia Pacific Population Journal. 2008 Aug;23(2):55-80. Abstract: This paper provides a general overview of population ageing in the context of fertility transition in Asia and the Pacific. Focusing on low-fertility countries, it highlights the implications of low fertility for the ageing process. Indicators of population ageing, such as changes in age structure, potential support ratio and the feminization of the elderly population, are presented to provide a better understanding of the overall situation. As the region is home to over 60 per cent of the global population and has been experiencing a rapid decline in fertility, the absolute size of the older population is a cause for major concern. While the overall population growth rate has been declining over time, the number of older persons is increasing at a faster rate. In addition to the increase in the number of older persons, gender disparity in improvements in life expectancy at birth is likely to result in a much higher percent age of females in the older age groups, particularly in the age group 80 years and older. It is therefore important for countries in the region to recognize the significance of ageing problems and to start formulating policies for the elderly given that it takes several decades for Government old-age pension schemes to mature and to operate at full scale. Language: English Keywords: ASIA | OCEANIA | RESEARCH REPORT | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Age Distribution | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality Document Number: 331308 |
| 22. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility decline driven by poverty: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Author: Gurmu E; Mace R Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 Jan;:[20] p. Abstract: Demographic transition theory states that fertility declines in response to development, thus wealth and fertility are negatively correlated. Evolutionary theory, however, suggests a positive relationship between wealth and fertility. Fertility transition as a result of industrialization and economic development started in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in Western Europe; and it extended to some of the Asian and Latin American countries later on. However, economic crises since the 1980s have been co-incident with fertility decline in sub-Sahara Africa and other developing countries like Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh in the last decade of the 20th century. A very low level of fertility is observed in Addis Ababa (TFR=1.9) where contraceptive prevalence rate is modest and recurrent famine as well as drought have been major causes of economic crisis in the country for more than three consecutive decades, which is surprising given the high rural fertility. Detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 2976 women of reproductive age (i.e. 15-49 years) residing in Addis Ababa were collected during the first quarter of 2003 using an event history calendar and individual women questionnaire. Controlling for the confounding effects of maternal birth cohort, education, marital status and accessible income level, the poor (those who have access to less than a dollar per day or 250 birr a month) were observed to elongate the timing of having first and second births, while relatively better-off women were found to have shorter birth intervals. Results were also the same among the ever-married women only model. More than 50% of women currently in their 20s are also predicted to fail to reproduce as most of the unmarried men and women are 'retreating from marriage' due to economic stress. Qualitative information collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews also supports the statistical findings that poverty is at the root of this collapse in fertility. Whilst across countries wealth and fertility have been negatively correlated, this study shows that within one uniform population the relationship is clearly positive. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | FOCUS GROUPS | URBAN POPULATION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | EVER MARRIED | POVERTY | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FAMINE | DROUGHT | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Research Methodology | Data Collection | Population Characteristics | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment | Water Supply Document Number: 308629 |
| 23. Title: Global aging and the demographic divide. Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Apr. [7] p. Abstract: In the latter half of the last century, the world's developed nations completed a long process of demographic transition. The field of demography describes this demographic transition as a shift from a period of high mortality, short lives, and large families to one with a longer life expectancy and far fewer children. This transformation took many centuries in Europe and North America as people moved from farms to cities; basic public health measures steadily reduced the risk of contagious disease; and modern medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths. In developing countries, this demographic transition is certainly underway, though these countries vary widely at their places along the spectrum. Very low birth rates and the resultant population decrease have received considerable media attention, particularly in Europe and parts of eastern Asia. In the past, when demographers projected national and global populations, the projections commonly assumed that birth rates would decline worldwide but only to the "two-child" family, i.e., two children per woman or per couple on average. An assumption that fertility would fall below this rate would have some unpleasant consequences: a decrease in population size and a population top-heavy with retired seniors who would depend upon the social taxes paid by a dwindling number of younger workers. While it may not have been desirable to project such a gloomy scenario in the past, this is exactly what has transpired in many countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors Document Number: 326012 |
| 24. Title: Unintended pregnancies remain high in Jordan. Author: Jurdi R Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Sep. 5 p. (MENA Working Paper Series) Abstract: Every pregnancy should be intended and wanted, according to the Jordanian government's policies and international agreements related to family planning and reproductive health. However, one in three pregnancies in Jordan is unintended--either mistimed or unwanted. Policies and programs that reduce unintended pregnancies are justified on health and human rights grounds, and they can help Jordan achieve its population and development goals. This research paper intends to help policymakers and program managers in Jordan understand the extent and nature of unintended pregnancies and their implications for women and their families. A better understanding of unintended pregnancies and their causes will enable decisionmakers to remove obstacles that prevent families from having their desired number of children. Language: English Keywords: JORDAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | RECOMMENDATIONS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREGNANCY, UNPLANNED | PREGNANCY, UNWANTED | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | FERTILITY DECLINE | BIRTH SPACING | PREGNANCY RATE | Developing Countries | Middle East | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Planning | Fertility Changes | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 323151 |
| 25. Title: Factors responsible for the rapid decline of fertility in Nepal -- an interpretation. Further analysis of the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. Author: Karki YB; Krishna R Source: Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, MEASURE DHS, 2008 May. [30] p. (Nepal Further Analysis No. 52USAID Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00) Abstract: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Nepal in mid-1976 was estimated at 6.3 births per woman, contraceptive use among currently married women was low (3 percent) and the proportion married was high. Given these demographic parameters, no immediate change in the fertility rate in Nepal seemed plausible. In recent years however, several researchers have noted that a fertility transition has been underway in Nepal. Many factors-socioeconomic and biological-may have contributed to this precipitous decline in fertility. However, actual levels and rates of change in fertility are less certain because they also depend on the quality of data and the accuracy of measurements used. Ideally, it would have been better to re-examine the levels and trends of fertility from the survey data with earlier surveys. Instead, the focus of this paper is on examining the possible factors underlying the recent unprecedented declines in fertility. The principal measure of fertility in this part of the analysis is the total fertility rate (TFR). The paper is organized into three main parts. The first part deals with fertility levels, trends and differentials. The second part discusses the role of intermediate or proximate factors and the final part deals with the contextual or antecedent factors affecting these intermediate factors. Survey data are used to analyze the proximate determinants of fertility decline. The results of the analysis provide quantitative estimates of the contribution of changes in contraceptive use, marriage, breastfeeding and postpartum insusceptibility to the observed decline. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: NEPAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Contraception | Family Planning Document Number: 327804 |
| 26. Peer Reviewed Title: Stages of the demographic transition from a child's perspective: Family size, cohort size, and children's resources. Author: Lam D; Marteleto L Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):225-252. Abstract: The demographic transition has played itself out with great regularity in developing countries over the last 50 years. Looking at a broad set of countries, a stylized version of the demographic transition is consistent with the empirical experience of most of the developing world. The transition begins with large and sustained declines in death rates, especially infant and child mortality. The immediate effect of this mortality decline is an increase in the number of surviving children at the family level and an increase in the total number of children at the population level. Mortality decline is eventually followed by the second key element of the transition, a decline in fertility, which in turn has effects on both family size and cohort size. These changes in family size and cohort size over the course of the demographic transition are the focus of this article. We develop a new characterization of stages of the transition, viewing the demographic changes from a child's perspective. As we show, dramatic changes in the numbers of siblings and the size of cohorts can occur during the demographic transition, changes with important implications for children's resources at the family level and the population level. These changes do not always move in the same direction, however, owing to the complex interaction of population momentum with falling fertility and mortality. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | MORTALITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FAMILY SIZE | CHILD MORTALITY | INFANT MORTALITY | INFANT MORTALITY CHANGES | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 327507 |
| 27. Title: An aging world - demographics and challenges [editorial] Author: Lunenfeld B Source: Gynecological Endocrinology. 2008 Jan;24(1):1-3. Abstract: The world has seen enormous changes over the past century, including historically unprecedented declines in mortality rates and increases in population, followed by equally unprecedented declines in fertility rates. This century will see a new set of demographic challenges, including a mix of falling fertility rates alongside persisting worldwide population growth, and the subsequent aging of populations in both developing and developed countries. The 20th century was the century of population growth; the 21st century will go into the history books as the century of aging. A holistic approach to this new challenge of the 21st century will necessitate a quantum leap in multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated research efforts, supported by a new partnership between industry and governments, philanthropic and international organizations. This collaboration we hope will enrich us with a better understanding of healthy aging, permit us to help to improve quality of life, prevent the preventable, and postpone and decrease the pain and suffering of the inevitable. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES | OLDER ADULTS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | QUALITY OF LIFE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | LIFE STYLE | RISK REDUCTION BEHAVIOR | PREVENTIVE MEDICINE | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Welfare | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Length of Life | Mortality | Natural Resources | Environment | Behavior | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 324751 |
| 28. Title: The coming acceleration of global population ageing [letter] Author: Lutz W; Sanderson W; Scherbov S Source: Nature. 2008 Feb 7;451:716-719. Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by midcentury. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION PROJECTION | MEASUREMENT | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 326160 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Reproducing in cities. Author: Mace R Source: Science. 2008 Feb 8;319(5864):764-766. Abstract: Reproducing in cities has always been costly, leading to lower fertility (that is, lower birth rates) in urban than in rural areas. Historically, although cities provided job opportunities, initially residents incurred the penalty of higher infant mortality, but as mortality rates fell at the end of the 19th century, European birth rates began to plummet. Fertility decline in Africa only started recently and has been dramatic in some cities. Here it is argued that both historical and evolutionary demographers are interpreting fertility declines across the globe in terms of the relative costs of child rearing, which increase to allow children to outcompete their peers. Now largely free from the fear of early death, postindustrial societies may create an environment that generates runaway parental investment, which will continue to drive fertility ever lower. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | AFRICA | SUMMARY REPORT | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | URBAN AREAS | INFANT MORTALITY | DEATH RATE | CHILD REARING | MICROECONOMIC FACTORS | Developed Countries | Developing Countries | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Geographic Factors | Mortality | Behavior | Economic Factors Document Number: 325528 |
| 30. Peer Reviewed Title: Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: An application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990 -- 2005. Author: Moultrie TA; Hosegood V; McGrath N; Hill C; Herbst K Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2008 Mar;39(1):39-48. Abstract: Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertilitylevels in sub-Saharan Africa. (author's) Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | LINEAR REGRESSION | RURAL POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Statistical Regression | Data Analysis | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Contraception | Family Planning Document Number: 324216 |
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