1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Author: Reniers G; Araya T; Davey G; Nagelkerke N; Berhane Y; Coutinho R; Sanders EJ Source: AIDS. 2009 Feb 20;23(4):511-8. Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. METHODS: To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20-64 years) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard, we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The positive predictive value and sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001-2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9 and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2 for men and 42.9% for women. Compared with the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated to be between 56.8 and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. CONCLUSION: Five years into the ART programme, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more sex balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists. Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | URBAN POPULATION | AIDS | DEATH RATE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | CAUSES OF DEATH | AUTOPSY | SEX FACTORS | MORTALITY DECLINE | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | HIV | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 341166 |
2.  Title: China's excess males, sex selective abortion, and one child policy: analysis of data from 2005 national intercensus survey. Author: Zhu WX; Lu L; Hesketh T Source: BMJ. 2009;338:b1211. Abstract: OBJECTIVES: To elucidate current trends and geographical patterns in the sex ratio at birth and in the population aged under 20 in China and to determine the roles played by sex selective abortion and the one child policy. DESIGN: Analysis of household based cross sectional population survey done in November 2005. SETTING: All of China's 2861 counties. Population 1% of the total population, selected to be broadly representative of the total. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Sex ratio defined as males per 100 females. RESULTS: 4 764 512 people under the age of 20 were included. Overall sex ratios were high across all age groups and residency types, but they were highest in the 1-4 years age group, peaking at 126 (95% confidence interval 125 to 126) in rural areas. Six provinces had sex ratios of over 130 in the 1-4 age group. The sex ratio at birth was close to normal for first order births but rose steeply for second order births, especially in rural areas, where it reached 146 (143 to 149). Nine provinces had ratios of over 160 for second order births. The highest sex ratios were seen in provinces that allow rural inhabitants a second child if the first is a girl. Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males. One particular variant of the one child policy, which allows a second child if the first is a girl, leads to the highest sex ratios. CONCLUSIONS: In 2005 males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred. China will see very high and steadily worsening sex ratios in the reproductive age group over the next two decades. Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalisation of the ratios. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | HOUSEHOLDS | ONE CHILD POLICY | ABORTION | SEX PREFERENCE | SEX RATIO | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | AGE FACTORS | POPULATION PROJECTION | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Antinatalist Policy | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Value Orientation | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 331270 Notification |
| 3. Title: World urbanization prospects: the 2007 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2008 Feb 26. [19] p. Abstract: Since 1988 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has been issuing every two years revised and updated estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations of all countries in the world and of their major urban agglomerations. This note presents the main findings of the 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects which are consistent with the size of the total population of each country as estimated or projected in the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects. The 2007 Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world for the period 1950-2050. The results are shown for development groups, six major areas (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania) and 21 regions. Data are further disaggregated for the 229 countries or areas of the world. The 2007 Revision also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2007 for the period 1950-2025. Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas and the population of cities are derived on the basis of national statistics. The most common source of data on the proportion urban and the population of cities and urban agglomerations is the population census. For some countries, the basic data are obtained from population registers or administrative statistics. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | SUMMARY REPORT | URBAN AREAS | RURAL AREAS | POPULATION PROJECTION | URBANIZATION | POPULATION GROWTH | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | URBAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | Geographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors Document Number: 324699 |
| 4. Title: Is there dowry inflation in South Asia? Author: Arunachalam R; Logan T Source: Cambridge, Massachusetts, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008 Mar. [42] p. (NBER Working Paper No. 13905) Abstract: This paper is the first systematic attempt to measure the existence and degree of dowry inflation in South Asia. The popular press and scholarly literature have assumed dowry inflation in South Asia for some time, and there are now a number of theoretical papers that have attempted to explain the rise of dowries in South Asia. Despite these advances, there has been no systematic study of dowry inflation. Using large-sample retrospective survey data from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal, we assess the empirical evidence for dowry inflation. We find no evidence that real dowry amounts have systematically increased over time in South Asia. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ASIA, SOUTHERN | RESEARCH REPORT | RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | KAP SURVEYS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | EVER MARRIED | DOWRY | INFLATION | CASTE | Developing Countries | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Theoretical Models | Data Analysis | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Macroeconomic Factors | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 325672 |
| 5. Peer Reviewed Title: Lifetime abortion rate in Iran is estimated to be one per four women. Author: Ball H Source: International Family Planning Perspectives. 2008 Sep;34(3):147. Abstract: In Iran, where abortion is severely restricted by law, married women aged 15-49 have an estimated 73,000 abortions per year, according to a recent analysis of nationally representative data.1 This translates to 0.26 lifetime abortions per woman. However, the abortion rate varies widely among Iran's provinces, depending largely on regional levels of religiosity and modern contraceptive use. The data used to estimate abortion rates and levels come mainly from a subsample of 87,248 married women aged 15-49 who completed the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey. The women provided information on social and demographic characteristics (including fertility), as well as on factors affecting their reproductive health. Because abortions are difficult to obtain in Iran and are often performed illegally, accurate data on the procedure's incidence were unavailable; thus, the researchers used the so-called residual method to estimate the abortion rate. In this approach, the abortion rate is calculated from a formula that incorporates women's theoretical maximum fertility rate (15.3 children per woman), the total fertility rate for Iran (2.0 children per woman), contraceptive use, postpartum infecundability, and seasonal and absolute spousal separation (due primarily to work-related migration). This rate was then applied to 1996 census data to generate an estimate of the incidence of abortion. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | ABORTION RATE | ABORTION LAW | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | ISLAM | AGE FACTORS | RISK FACTORS | Middle East | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Data Analysis | Estimation Techniques | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Religion | Population Characteristics | Biology Document Number: 322605 Notification |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models. Author: Caswell H Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Mar;18(3):59-116. Abstract: Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models), feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g., dependency ratios), age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MASSACHUSETTS | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | ENVIRONMENT | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | AGE FACTORS | TIME FACTORS | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developed Countries | United States of America | North America | Americas | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Length of Life | Mortality Document Number: 325250 |
| 7. Title: Population, health, and environment issues in the Philippines. A profile of Calabarzon (Region 4-A). Author: De La Paz MC; Colson L Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], Population, Health, and Environment Program, 2008 Oct. 6 p. Abstract: Linking population, health, and environment (PHE) issues is becoming increasingly important for the Philippines, where natural resources and public health and well-being are often negatively affected by factors such as population pressures and poverty. Understanding these connections--including the economic and social context in which they occur--and addressing PHE issues in an integrated manner is critical for achieving sustainable development. This regional PHE profile highlights key population, health, and environment indicators and important development challenges for the Calabarzon Region (Region 4-A). The profile is designed to help educators, policymakers, and community leaders identify key threats to sustainable development and explore possible approaches to addressing them. This profile is part of a series covering select regions of the Philippines, and is intended as a companion publication to the Population Reference Bureau's 2006 data sheet, Making the Link in the Philippines: Population, Health, and the Environment. Language: English Keywords: PHILIPPINES | RESEARCH REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | EVALUATION INDEXES | POPULATION | ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION SIZE | URBANIZATION | FAMILY PLANNING | NATURAL RESOURCES | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Environment | Economic Factors | Demographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Estimation Techniques | Health Document Number: 323137 |
| 8. Title: Achieving Uttar Pradesh’s population policy goals through demand-based family planning programs: taking stock at the mid-point. Author: Feranil I; Borda M Source: Washington, D.C., Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, Futures Group International, 2008. :vii, 17 p.. (USAID Contract No. GPO-I-01-05-00040-00) Abstract: This report describes progress in achieving the goals of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) Population Policy adopted in 2000, the implications of alternative fertility and mortality trends during the next decade, and strategies and program initiatives recommended by national and state policymakers and other experts. To assess progress in implementing the UP Population Policy and to show how fertility trends would affect maternal and child health and socioeconomic development, the USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, analyzed data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) conducted in 2005-06. The project conducted the analysis using the FamPlan, DemProj, and RAPID models within Spectrum, a modeling system that uses computer software to generate projections and estimates showing the results of policy alternatives. Language: English Keywords: INDIA | PROGRESS REPORT | HEALTH SURVEYS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DATA ANALYSIS | USAID | GOALS | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM EVALUATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION | CONTRACEPTIVE AVAILABILITY | POSTPARTUM PROGRAMS | COMMUNICATION STRATEGY | DATA QUALITY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Health | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Government Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Planning | Organization and Administration | Social Policy | Policy | Family Planning Programs | Family Planning | Estimation Techniques | Contraception | Communication Document Number: 308942 |
| 9. Peer Reviewed Title: Risk factors for poor virological outcome at 12 months in a workplace-based antiretroviral therapy programme in South Africa: a cohort study. Author: Fielding KL; Charalambous S; Stenson AL; Pemba LF; Martin DJ; Wood R; Churchyard GJ; Grant AD Source: BMC Infectious Diseases. 2008;8:93. Abstract: BACKGROUND: Reasons for the variation in reported treatment outcomes from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in developing countries are not clearly defined. METHODS: Among ART-naive individuals in a workplace ART programme in South Africa we determined virological outcomes at 12 months, and risk factors for suboptimal virological outcome, defined as plasma HIV-1 viral load > or = 400 copies/ml. RESULTS: Among 1760 individuals starting ART before July 2004, 1172 were in follow-up at 12 months of whom 953 (81%) had a viral load measurement (median age 41 yrs, 96% male, median baseline CD4 count 156 x 10(6)/l). 71% (681/953) had viral load < 400 copies/ml at 12 months. In a multivariable analysis, independent predictors of suboptimal virological outcome at 12 months were <1 log decrease in viral load at six weeks (odds ratio [OR] 4.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.56-8.68), viral load at baseline (OR 3.63 [95% CI 1.88-7.00] and OR 3.54 [95% CI 1.79-7.00] for 10,001-100,000 and >100,000 compared to < or = 10,000 copies/ml, respectively), adherence at six weeks (OR 3.50 [95% CI 1.92-6.35]), WHO stage (OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.28-3.34] and OR 2.03 [95% CI 1.14-3.62] for stage 3 and 4 compared to stage 1-2, respectively) and site of ART delivery. Site of delivery remained an independent risk factor even after adjustment for individual level factors. At 6 weeks, of 719 patients with self-reported adherence and viral load, 72 (10%) reported 100% adherence but had <1 log decrease in viral load; conversely, 60 (8%) reported <100% adherence but had > or = 1 log decrease in viral load. CONCLUSION: Virological response at six weeks after ART start was the strongest predictor of suboptimal virological outcome at 12 months, and may identify individuals who need interventions such as additional adherence support. Self reported adherence was less strongly associated but identified different patients compared with viral load at 6 weeks. Site of delivery had an important influence on virological outcomes; factors atthe health system level which influence outcome need further investigation to guide development of effective ART programmes. Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | CLINICAL RESEARCH | COHORT ANALYSIS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | EMPLOYMENT-BASED SERVICES | HIV INFECTIONS | USER COMPLIANCE | RISK FACTORS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Data Analysis | Viral Diseases | Diseases | HIV | Programs | Organization and Administration | Behavior | Biology Document Number: 328296 |
| 10. Title: Age differences at sexual debut and subsequent reproductive health: Is there a link? Author: Gomez AM; Speizer IS; Reynolds H; Murray N; Beauvais H Source: Reproductive Health. 2008;5:8. Abstract: ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Experiences at sexual debut may be linked to reproductive health later in life. Additionally, young women with older sexual partners may be at greater risk for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. This study examines sexual debut with an older partner and subsequent reproductive health outcomes among 599 sexually experienced women aged 15-24 who utilized voluntary counseling and testing or reproductive health services in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. METHODS: Logistic regression models, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors, examined whether age differences at first sex were significantly associated with STI diagnosis in the previous 12 months and family planning method use at last intercourse. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of women reported sexual initiation with a partner younger or less than 5 years older, 28% with a partner 5 to 10 years older, and 7% with a partner 10 or more years older. There was a trend towards decreased likelihood of recent use of family planning methods in women who had first sexual intercourse with a partner 5 to 9 years older compared to women with partners who were younger or less than 5 years older. Age differences were not linked to recent STI diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Programs focusing on delaying sexual debut should consider age and gender-based power differentials between younger women and older men. Future research should examine whether wide age differences at sexual debut are predictive of continued involvement in cross-generational relationships and risky sexual behaviors and explore the mechanisms by which cross-generational first sex and subsequent reproductive health may be connected. Language: English Keywords: HAITI | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | RESEARCH REPORT | KAP SURVEYS | BASELINE SURVEYS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | ADOLESCENTS, FEMALE | BLACKS | CONDOM USE | VALIDITY | TIME FACTORS | RELIABILITY | Caribbean | Americas | Developing Countries | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Adolescents | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Ethnic Groups | Cultural Background | Risk Reduction Behavior | Behavior | Measurement | Population Dynamics Document Number: 328027 |
| 11. Title: Global aging and the demographic divide. Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Apr. [7] p. Abstract: In the latter half of the last century, the world's developed nations completed a long process of demographic transition. The field of demography describes this demographic transition as a shift from a period of high mortality, short lives, and large families to one with a longer life expectancy and far fewer children. This transformation took many centuries in Europe and North America as people moved from farms to cities; basic public health measures steadily reduced the risk of contagious disease; and modern medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths. In developing countries, this demographic transition is certainly underway, though these countries vary widely at their places along the spectrum. Very low birth rates and the resultant population decrease have received considerable media attention, particularly in Europe and parts of eastern Asia. In the past, when demographers projected national and global populations, the projections commonly assumed that birth rates would decline worldwide but only to the "two-child" family, i.e., two children per woman or per couple on average. An assumption that fertility would fall below this rate would have some unpleasant consequences: a decrease in population size and a population top-heavy with retired seniors who would depend upon the social taxes paid by a dwindling number of younger workers. While it may not have been desirable to project such a gloomy scenario in the past, this is exactly what has transpired in many countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors Document Number: 326012 |
| 12. Title: Tracking trends in low fertility countries: An uptick in Europe? Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Sep. [3] p. Abstract: PRB has made a major update to its table of total fertility rates (TFRs) in countries with low or very low fertility rates. The newest tabulations suggest that fertility may be rising in some countries. But does this signal a more general trend? Carl Haub, PRB's senior demographer, analyzed the data. Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | GLOBAL | SUMMARY REPORT | FERTILITY RATE | BIRTH RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | POPULATION PROJECTION | CHANGES | Developed Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 331484 |
| 13. Peer Reviewed Title: Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Author: Jia Y; Sun J; Fan L; Song D; Tian S; Yang Y; Jia M; Lu L; Sun X; Zhang S; Kulczycki A; Vermund SH Source: International Journal of Epidemiology. 2008 Dec;37(6):1287-1296. Abstract: Background: Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China, borders Myanmar. Its proximity to the 'Golden Triangle', one of the world's largest illicit drug production and distribution centre, contributes to drug trafficking and ready availability of heroin. Dehong's 1.1 million people confront a serious HIV problem fuelled by injection drug use. The aim of this study is to improve the 2005 estimates of the true status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Prefecture. Methods: We estimated the HIV prevalence by synthesizing the results from several data sources (HIV/AIDS case reports, surveys, surveillance activities and epidemiological studies). We applied three different statistical procedures for estimations: (i) The Workbook method, adapted to meet the estimation needs in Dehong Prefecture; (ii) An estimate based on antenatal clinical data; and (iii) a dynamic model based on the local epidemic pattern. Results: We estimated that the population prevalence for HIV infections in Dehong Prefecture is 1.3% (likely range from low/high of three estimates: 0.9-1.7%) such that 13 500 people were living with HIV/ AIDS in Dehong Prefecture (likely range: 8200-18 300) in 2005. Infections remain concentrated among injection drug users, female sex workers and their clients with an uneven geographical distribution of estimated cases. Conclusion: More reliable estimates of HIV prevalence can be made by synthesizing multiple data sources using several procedures. Current HIV prevention, care and treatment challenges are judged substantial in Dehong Prefecture, regardless of what modelling strategy is used. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | IV DRUG USERS | SEX WORKERS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | ANTENATAL CARE | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Geographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Drug Use and Abuse | Behavior | Sex Behavior | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Measurement | Maternal Health Services | Maternal-Child Health Services | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 328758 |
| 14. Title: The impact of future demographic trends in Europe, 2005 -- 2050. Author: Kupiszewski M; Bijak J; Nowok B Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:147-183. Abstract: The objective of the paper is to examine the future of populations within the Council of Europe member states, identify the main trends and discuss their policy implications. The analysis focuses on the impact that future demographic trends will have on the following social domains: education, the labour market, health care and care of the elderly and social protection. The study aims to be policy-oriented and to provide an overview of future demographic trends for 2005-2050 in the Council of Europe member states, as well as presenting an analysis related to selected policies and an interpretation of these trends. The analysis of population dynamics in the coming 45 years is based on the United Nations population projection of 2005. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | OLDER ADULTS | LABOR FORCE | POPULATION FORECAST | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | SOCIAL POLICY | EDUCATION | EMPLOYMENT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHY | QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE | SOCIAL PROTECTION | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Social Sciences | Science | Health Services Evaluation | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326071 |
| 15. Title: An aging world - demographics and challenges [editorial] Author: Lunenfeld B Source: Gynecological Endocrinology. 2008 Jan;24(1):1-3. Abstract: The world has seen enormous changes over the past century, including historically unprecedented declines in mortality rates and increases in population, followed by equally unprecedented declines in fertility rates. This century will see a new set of demographic challenges, including a mix of falling fertility rates alongside persisting worldwide population growth, and the subsequent aging of populations in both developing and developed countries. The 20th century was the century of population growth; the 21st century will go into the history books as the century of aging. A holistic approach to this new challenge of the 21st century will necessitate a quantum leap in multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated research efforts, supported by a new partnership between industry and governments, philanthropic and international organizations. This collaboration we hope will enrich us with a better understanding of healthy aging, permit us to help to improve quality of life, prevent the preventable, and postpone and decrease the pain and suffering of the inevitable. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES | OLDER ADULTS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | QUALITY OF LIFE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | LIFE STYLE | RISK REDUCTION BEHAVIOR | PREVENTIVE MEDICINE | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Welfare | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Length of Life | Mortality | Natural Resources | Environment | Behavior | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 324751 |
| 16. Title: The coming acceleration of global population ageing [letter] Author: Lutz W; Sanderson W; Scherbov S Source: Nature. 2008 Feb 7;451:716-719. Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by midcentury. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION PROJECTION | MEASUREMENT | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 326160 |
| 17. Peer Reviewed Title: Residential area as proxy for socio-economic status, paediatric mortality and birth weight in Lusaka, Zambia. Author: Mweemba AJ; Webb E Source: Journal of Tropical Pediatrics. 2008 Dec;54(6):406-9. Abstract: Systems of socio-economic classification comparable to the Registrar General's Social Classification or post codes are not readily available in many developing countries. Thus health data from developing countries are usually presented without a refined geographical focus. The hierarchical urban residential classification system in Zambia was used as a socio-economic proxy to explore the relationship with mass measures of paediatric health in Lusaka, Zambia. This study shows that the Zambian urban residential classification system appears to be a valid proxy of socio-economic status, revealing residential gradients with respect to birth weight and paediatric mortality rates in Lusaka. Language: English Keywords: ZAMBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | CLASSIFICATION | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | URBAN POPULATION | LOCALE | SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS | BIRTH WEIGHT | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | CHILD MORTALITY | AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Body Weight | Physiology | Biology | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Death Rate Document Number: 330410 |
| 18. Title: U.S. population projections: 2005-2050. Author: Passel JS; Cohn D Source: Washington, D.C., Pew Research Center, 2008 Feb 11. [55] p. (Report) Abstract: If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center. Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren. Among the other key population projections: Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago. The major role of immigration in national growth builds on the pattern of recent decades, during which immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren accounted for most population increase. Immigration's importance increased as the average number of births to U.S.-born women dropped sharply before leveling off. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | TECHNICAL REPORT | POPULATION PROJECTION | IMMIGRANTS | MIGRATION | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Migrants | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 324199 |
| 19. Title: Population growth and natural-resources pressures in the Mekong River Basin. Author: Pech S; Sunada K Source: AMBIO. 2008 May 1;37(3):219-224. Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to stimulate policy debate over the current national focus on food self-sufficiency and a broader national and regional development agenda in the Mekong River Basin. We provide the context, empirical evidence, and an analysis of the demand (real or perceived) associated with population growth. We also present a comparison of demand forecasts with the sustainable potential of the natural-resources base of the Mekong River Basin in order to contribute to a better understanding of this immense and complex Mekong River Basin environment. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | MYANMAR | LAOS | THAILAND | CAMBODIA | VIETNAM | RESEARCH REPORT | ENVIRONMENT | NATURAL RESOURCES | FOOD SUPPLY | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | LAND AND RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT | LAND SUPPLY | AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT | WATER SUPPLY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Rural Development | Economic Factors Document Number: 327067 |
| 20. Title: Demographic change in the Arab countries: prospects for the future. Summary of social policies. No. 1. Author: Shakour B Source: Beirut, Lebanon, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia [ESCWA], 2008 Dec 16. 11 p. (E/ESCWA/SDD/2008/Technical Paper.4) Workshop on Reinforcing National Capacities in Responding to the World Programme of Action on Youth: National reports and systematic documentation of accomplishments, Beirut, 17 December 2008. Abstract: Demographic analysis indicates that in the near future the Arab countries will fall into two groups. The first group will consist of those countries enjoying a demographic return from the increased supply of jobs, the fall in the dependency ratio and the resultant increase in savings: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, the Syrian Arab Republic and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. The second group will comprise those countries enjoying a demographic return but one whose onset was too late to fall within the time frame set by the programme of work of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and the United Nations? Millennium Declaration of 2000. Both groups will face major challenges and both need to formulate appropriate policies. The first group could face multiple challenges, so it must not miss this opportunity and must make an effort to seize it, especially as it will help these countries carry out their commitments to eradicate poverty and improve the quality of human life. The countries in the second group need to work to accelerate the onset of the demographic dividend by developing population policies that will accelerate fertility reduction and develop human capital. These countries may not manage to halve the material poverty rate by 2015, but they may be able to reduce human poverty. They could do this by directing their policies towards human welfare, especially in the countries that suffer from human poverty in addition to the poverty of income. (Excerpt) Language: English Keywords: MIDDLE EAST | CONFERENCES AND CONGRESSES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | YOUTH | POLICYMAKERS | WORKSHOPS | CAPACITY BUILDING | SOCIAL POLICY | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEVELOPMENT POLICY | POLICY DEVELOPMENT | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | POLITICAL FACTORS | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Education | Program Sustainability | Programs | Policy | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Estimation Techniques | Planning | Age Distribution Document Number: 331362 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969 - 1989? Author: Spoorenberg T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Apr 18;18(10):285-310. Abstract: The closure of Mongolia to the international community during the 20th century resulted in a dearth of available data and analytic demographic studies. In the absence of mortality analysis during the socialist period, this paper proposes the use of indirect census-based techniques to estimate mortality levels and trends of the last two socialist decades (1969-1989). Due to census data quality and choice of model life table, results are not homogeneous. The respective effects of these two components are discussed in order to understand the results. However, despite these shortcomings, it is shown that during the last socialist decades in Mongolia, the health conditions of the population deteriorated. The Mongolian pattern is relatively similar to the situation documented for the ex-socialist republics. Causes of this similarity are discussed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MONGOLIA | RESEARCH REPORT | MORTALITY CHANGES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | CENSUS | RELIABILITY | HEALTH SERVICES | HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Mortality | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Measurement | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Management | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326095 |
| 22. Peer Reviewed Title: Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades. Author: Streatfield PK; Karar ZA Source: Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition. 2008 Sep;26(3):261-72. Abstract: Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | CONTRACEPTION | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | CLIMATE | AGRICULTURE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Family Planning | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Environment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 328892 |
| 23. Title: HIV testing during pregnancy: use of secondary data to estimate 2006 test coverage and prevalence in Brazil. Author: Szwarcwald CL; Barbosa Junior A; Souza-Junior PR; Lemos KR; Frias PG; Luhm KR; Holcman MM; Esteves MA Source: Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2008 Jun;12(3):167-72. Abstract: This paper describes a methodological proposal based on secondary data and the main results of the HIV-Sentinel Study among childbearing women, carried out in Brazil during 2006. A probabilistic sample of childbearing women was selected in two stages. In the first stage, 150 health establishments were selected, stratified by municipality size (<50,000; 50,000-399,999; 400,000+). In the second stage, 100-120 women were selected systematically. Data collection was based on HIV-test results registered in pre-natal cards and in hospital records. The analysis focused on coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy and HIV prevalence rate. Logistic regression models were used to test inequalities in HIV-testing coverage during pregnancy by macro-region of residence, municipality size, race, educational level and age group. The study included 16,158 women. Results were consistent with previous studies based on primary data collection. Among the women receiving pre-natal care with HIV-test results registered in their pre-natal cards, HIV prevalence was 0.41%. Coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy was 62.3% in the country as a whole, but ranged from 40.6% in the Northeast to 85.8% in the South. Significant differences according to race, educational level and municipality size were also found. The proposed methodology is low-cost, easy to apply, and permits identification of problems in routine service provision, in addition to monitoring compliance with Ministry of Health recommendations for pre-natal care. Language: English Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | SAMPLING STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | CLINICAL RESEARCH | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | PROBABILITY | HIV TESTING | COST EFFECTIVENESS | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | Developing Countries | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Studies | Research Methodology | Data Analysis | Estimation Techniques | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | Statistical Studies | Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Evaluation Indexes | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 330446 |
| 24. Title: HIV testing during pregnancy: use of secondary data to estimate 2006 test coverage and prevalence in Brazil. Author: Szwarcwald CL; Junior AB; de Souza-Junior PR; de Lemos KR; de Frias G Source: Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2008 June;12(3):167-172. Abstract: This paper describes a methodological proposal based on secondary data and the main results of the HIV-Sentinel Study among childbearing women, carried out in Brazil during 2006. A probabilistic sample of childbearing women was selected in two stages. In the first stage, 150 health establishments were selected, stratified by municipality size (<50,000; 50,000-399,999; 400,000+). In the second stage, 100-120 women were selected systematically. Data collection was based on HIV-test results registered in pre-natal cards and in hospital records. The analysis focused on coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy and HIV prevalence rate. Logistic regression models were used to test inequalities in HIV-testing coverage during pregnancy by macro-region of residence, municipality size, race, educational level and age group. The study included 16,158 women. Results were consistent with previous studies based on primary data collection. Among the women receiving pre-natal care with HIV-test results registered in their pre-natal cards, HIV prevalence was 0.41%. Coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy was 62.3% in the country as a whole, but ranged from 40.6% in the Northeast to 85.8% in the South. Significant differences according to race, educational level and municipality size were also found. The proposed methodology is low-cost, easy to apply, and permits identification of problems in routine service provision, in addition to monitoring compliance with Ministry of Health recommendations for pre-natal care. Language: English Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CLINICAL RESEARCH | ETHNIC GROUPS | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | HIV TESTING | HIV INFECTIONS | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | AGE FACTORS | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Data Analysis | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Measurement | Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 329382 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: France: High and stable fertility. Author: Toulemon L; Pailhe A; Rossier C Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(16):503-556. Abstract: The current total fertility rate in France is around 1.9 children per woman. This is a relatively high level by current European standards and makes France an outlier, despite the fact that its other demographic trends, especially conjugal behaviour, and social and economic trends are not very different from other Western European countries. France can serve as a counterfactual test case for some of the hypotheses advanced to explain the current low level of fertility in most European countries (delay in fertility, decline in marriage, increased birth control, greater economic uncertainty). France's fertility level can be partly explained by its active family policy introduced after the Second World War, and adapted in the 1980s to accommodate women's entry into the labour force. This policy is the result of a battle, fuelled by pro-natalism, between the conservative supporters of family values and the promoters of state-supported individual equality. French family policy thus encompasses a wide range of measures based on varying ideological backgrounds, and it is difficult to classify in comparison to the more precisely focused family policies of other European welfare states. The active family policy seems to have created especially positive attitudes towards two- or three child families in France. (author's) Language: English Keywords: FRANCE | RESEARCH REPORT | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | YOUTH | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | ABORTION | POPULATION FORECAST | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Contraception | Family Planning | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Fertility Control, Postconception | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 327724 Notification |
| 26. Title: The future population of India. A long-range demographic view. Author: Population Foundation of India; Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: New Delhi, India, Population Foundation of India, 2007 Aug. 15 p. Abstract: India's population passed the one billion mark in 2000 and, this year, celebrated its 60th year as an independent country. Its population is likely to pass China's as the world's largest within 20 years. All of this leads quite naturally to the question: how large might the population of the world's largest democracy become? This is the question that the Population Foundation of India and its partner, the Population Reference Bureau, have addressed to project India's population for the long term. In this publication, two scenarios of India's future population are offered. Both assume that fertility will decline continuously to the point where couples average two children each, the goal of India's National Population Policy 2000. The scenarios differ in one respect: one assumes that states with higher current fertility will decline to the "replacement level" of 2.1 children, a common assumption in projections. The second assumes that the decline will continue to 1.85 children, near the level observed in states such as Kerala. The first scenario results in an India of two billion population while the second falls short of that mark and results in eventual population decline. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | POPULATION GROWTH | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Length of Life Document Number: 320374 |
| 27. Title: World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2007. [118] p. (ESA/P/WP.202) Abstract: The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | UN | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | MORTALITY DECLINE | HIV INFECTIONS | PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY | Research Methodology | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Demographic Factors | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement Document Number: 316765 |
| 28. Title: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Author: Alkema L; Raftery AE; Clark SJ Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 18 p. Abstract: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends in antenatal clinics. Understanding uncertainty in its projections and related quantities is important for more informed policy decision making. We propose using Bayesian melding to assess the uncertainty around the EPP predictions. Prevalence data as well as information on the input parameters of the EPP model are used to derive probabilistic HIV prevalence projections - a probability distribution on a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 1% to 7%. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UGANDA | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CASE STUDIES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | UNAIDS | PROBABILITY | ANTENATAL CARE | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Estimation Techniques | Studies | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Statistical Studies | Maternal Health Services | Maternal-Child Health Services | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 318537 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Adherence to antiretroviral therapy in patients receiving free treatment from a government hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. Author: Bell DJ; Kapitao Y; Sikwese R; van Oosterhout JJ; Lalloo DG Source: JAIDS. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2007 Aug 15;45(5):560-563. Abstract: The objectives were to compare 3 measures of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-positive adults receiving free treatment from a public hospital in Malawi. Adherence was measured over 1 month by pill count (PC), self-report, and a medication event monitoring system (MEMS). Data from 80 patients were available for analysis. The mean patient age was 38.6 years, and 57.5% were female. The mean adherence using the MEMS cap (MC) was 88.1%. Forty-six (57.5%) patients had MC adherence $95%, and 13 (16.2%) had ,80% adherence. There was no association between MC adherence and time on ART. Mean PC adherence was 98.6%, significantly higher than MC adherence (P , 0.001). There was no clear relation between PC and MC adherence: 4 patients had MC adherence ,20% but PC adherence of 100%. Self-reports of missing a tablet did not correlate with poor MC adherence. The study shows the complexities of measuring adherence and probable overestimation of adherence by PC and self-report. Because these are the main methods used in developing countries, this raises concerns about the development of drug resistance. Improved methods are needed to detect nonadherence in developing countries, and validation of MC data with drug levels and virologic outcome in this setting is important. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MALAWI | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | KAP SURVEYS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | USER COMPLIANCE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | HOSPITALS | NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICES | TIME FACTORS | VALIDITY | RELIABILITY | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Behavior | HIV | Health Facilities | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Health Services | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement Document Number: 320646 |
| 30. Peer Reviewed Title: Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Impact of international migration on population ageing. Author: Bijak J; Kupiszewska D; Kupiszewski M; Saczuk K; Kicinger A Source: European Journal of Population. 2007 Mar;23(1):1-31. Abstract: Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002--2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION PROJECTION | LABOR FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | AGE FACTORS | Developed Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics Document Number: 313325 |
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