1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Fragile, threatened, and still urgently needed: family planning programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Author: Jacobstein R; Bakamjian L; Pile JM; Wickstrom J Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2009 Jun;40(2):147-154. Abstract: Many family planning (FP) programs in sub-Saharan Africa are fragile; recent performance has fallen off and future performance is challenged. Yet robust and wellfunctioning FP programs are still urgently needed if countries are to meet their health, equity, poverty-alleviation, and economic development goals. In support of these observations, we present data on FP parameters in sub- Saharan Africa overall and in eight of its countries, including Nigeria, the most populous African country; Kenya, a long-time leader in FP in the region; and Uganda, with fertility among the highest in Africa and a population projected to more than triple in the next 40 years to become sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-most-populous country. We also draw upon findings of individual case studies of the contraceptive programs of Ghana (Solo et al. 2005c), Malawi (Solo et al. 2005a), Senegal (Wickstrom et al. 2006), Tanzania (Pile and Simbakalia 2006), and Zambia (Solo et al. 2005b), as well as a synthesis of some of these case studies (ACQUIRE Project 2005). All eight of these countries, which together comprise 40 percent of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, are facing the same difficult dynamics in terms of threat and need. Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | NEEDS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | DECENTRALIZATION | FUNDS | URBANIZATION | POVERTY | FOOD SECURITY | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Planning | Economic Factors | Contraception | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Financial Activities | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Socioeconomic Factors | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment Document Number: 341898 |
| 2. Peer Reviewed Title: Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Author: Myrskyla M; Kohler HP; Billari FC Source: Nature. 2009 Aug 6;460(7256):741-3. Abstract: During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Migration Document Number: 342781 |
| 3. Title: Incidence of induced abortions in Peru [letter] Author: Puccetti R Source: CMAJ. 2009 May 26;180(11):1133; author reply 1133-4. Abstract: Antonio Bernabé-Ortiz and colleagues misleadingly assert that, although access to induced abortion services is legally restricted in Peru, the incidence of induced abortion is "as high as, or higher than, the estimated incidence in many countries where induced abortion is legal and safe." The abortion rate (the number of abortions per 1000 women of reproductive age) is greatly influenced by a number of factors, namely contraceptive behaviour and fertility rates, and thus it is not a good measure to use to evaluate the impact of the legal status of abortion on the incidence of abortions in a particular jurisdiction. The estimated total fertility rate is 2.86 in Peru; in comparison, it is 2.04 in the United States and 1.66 in the United Kingdom. Therefore, it is not surprising that the abortion rate in Peru may be similar to the rates in the United States and United Kingdom. The legal status of abortion may strongly affect postconceptional attitudes concerning pregnancy termination; this effect is much better described by the abortion ratio (the number of abortions per 1000 live births). Of the approximately 8660 pregnancies reported by participants in the study by Bernabé-Ortiz and colleagues, 1127 ended in induced abortions and 996 in spontaneous abortions. This means that there were approximately 6538 live births and the abortion ratio was 172.3. The authors referred to a study with US data from 2001, in which there were 6.4 million pregnancies, 1.1 million spontaneous abortions and 1.3 million induced abortions. The corresponding abortion ratio was 325. More recent US data indicate that there were 1 206 200 abortions and 4 138 349 births in 2005. The corresponding abortion ratio was 291.5. In England and Wales, 193 737 induced abortions and 669 601 live births were registered in 2006, with a corresponding abortion ratio of 289.3. These data show that there is a lower incidence of abortion in Peru than in other countries where abortion is legal. (full-text) Language: English Keywords: PERU | CRITIQUE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | MEASUREMENT | ABORTION LAW | ABORTION RATE | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Developing Countries | South America, Western | South America | Latin America | Americas | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 341641 |
| 4. Peer Reviewed Title: How Increased Contraceptive Use has Reduced Maternal Mortality. Author: Stover J; Ross J Source: Maternal and Child Health Journal. 2009 Jul 31; Abstract: It is widely recognized that family planning contributes to reducing maternal mortality by reducing the number of births and, thus, the number of times a woman is exposed to the risk of mortality. Here we show evidence that it also lowers the risk per birth, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), by preventing high-risk, high-parity births. This study seeks to quantify these contributions to lower maternal mortality as the use of family planning rose over the period from 1990 to 2005. We use estimates from United Nations organizations of MMRs and the total fertility rate (TFR) to estimate the number of births averted-and, consequently, the number of maternal deaths directly averted-as the TFR in the developing world dropped. We use data from 146 Demographic and Health Surveys on contraceptive use and the distribution of births by risk factor, as well as special country data sets on the MMR by parity and age, to explore the impacts of contraceptive use on high-risk births and, thus, on the MMR. Over 1 million maternal deaths were averted between 1990 and 2005 because the fertility rate in developing countries declined. Furthermore, by reducing demographically high-risk births in particular, especially high-parity births, family planning reduced the MMR and thus averted additional maternal deaths indirectly. This indirect effect can reduce a county's MMR by an estimated 450 points during the transition from low to high levels of contraceptive use. Increases in the use of modern contraceptives have made and can continue to make an important contribution to reducing maternal mortality in the developing world. Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | MORTALITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL AGE | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | PREGNANCY, HIGH RISK | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Contraception | Family Planning | Mortality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Pregnancy | Reproduction Document Number: 342297 |
5.  Title: Changes in fertility rates among Muslims in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Author: Zuehlke E Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Apr. [1] p. Abstract: The number of Muslims worldwide is projected to grow over the next decade to reach one-quarter of the world's population, largely because of higher fertility among Muslim populations. Yet, it is simplistic to argue that there is a specifically Islamic pattern of fertility due solely to religious influence, says Mehtab Karim, a senior research adviser and senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and World Affairs. Karim visited PRB as part of its ongoing Policy Seminar series and presented findings based on the latest Demographic and Health Survey data from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. (Excerpt) Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | INDIA | PAKISTAN | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | RELIGION | ISLAM | FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CULTURE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION GROWTH | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | FAMILY PLANNING | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Economic Factors | Contraception | Socioeconomic Status Document Number: 331347 |
| 6. Title: Youth unemployment and underemployment in Africa brings uncertainty and opportunity. Author: Zuehlke E Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Feb. [2] p. Abstract: The World Bank's Youth and Unemployment in Africa: The Potential, The Problem, The Promise report, released in December 2008, investigates the nature of Africa's youth demographics and recommends policies to give its youth access to stable employment. It argues that creating viable jobs for young people is a recondition for Africa's poverty eradication, sustainable development, and peace; and in countries emerging from conflict, access to employment for youth is integral to peace-building processes. (Excerpt) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA | SUMMARY REPORT | YOUTH | UNEMPLOYMENT | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | MIGRATION | Developing Countries | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Population | Employment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics Document Number: 331481 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: Demography, culture, and policy: Understanding Japan's low fertility. Author: Boling P Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):307-326. Abstract: Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs. (author's) Language: English Keywords: JAPAN | FRANCE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FAMILY POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | LABOR FORCE | GENDER ISSUES | PRONATALIST POLICY | POLITICAL SYSTEMS | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | CHILD CARE | FEMALE ROLE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Child Rearing | Behavior | Social Behavior Document Number: 327375 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: [Fertility of indigenous women in Minas Gerais State, Brazil: an analysis using the 2000 census] Fecundidade das mulheres autodeclaradas indigenas residentes em Minas Gerais, Author: Dias Junior CS; Verona AP; Pena JL; Machado-Coelho GL Source: Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2008 Nov;24(11):2477-86. Abstract: Indigenous populations living in villages in Brazil have presented high total fertility rates (TFR) that have increased over time in some cases. Meanwhile, data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) or National Census Bureau show a decline in the TFR for the total self-declared indigenous population (combining urban, rural, and specific rural residence). The current study uses data from the 2000 Population Census to describe and compare the structure and level of period fertility for the cohort of self-declared indigenous women living in the State of Minas Gerais. We calculated age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), the period TFR for 2000, and the cohort TFR for women 50 years and older. According to the findings, self-declared indigenous women living in Minas Gerais experienced high fertility in the past, regardless of their place of residence. In conclusion, the 2000 Population Census is an important data source for studies on indigenous populations in Brazil, based on the high coverage and wealth of information. Language: Portuguese Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | CENSUS | INDIGENOUS POPULATION | WOMEN | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE CUMULATIVE FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USE-EFFECTIVENESS | EVALUATION | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Contraceptive Effectiveness | Contraception | Family Planning Document Number: 342262 |
| 9. Peer Reviewed Title: Global demographic convergence? A reconsideration of changing intercountry inequality in fertility. Author: Dorius SF Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Sep;34(3):519-537. Abstract: This research challenges the notion that the second half of the twentieth century was a period of global demographic convergence. To be sure, fertility rates fell substantially during the period, but with considerable un-evenness. The declines in total fertility across population-weighted countries were sufficiently disproportionate that intercountry fertility inequality, estimated using standard measures of inequality, did not begin to decline until at least 1995. Regression analysis also shows that only very recently did lagging countries begin to catch up with countries that began the transition to low fertility earlier. Contrary to findings on changing intercountry health inequality, sub-Saharan Africa has had a greater impact on changes in fertility inequality than China. The trend in fertility inequality, where convergence is a relatively new phenomenon, stands in contrast to trends in inequality in other domains, such as income, education, and health. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY CHANGES | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 328099 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society. Author: Fokkema T; de Valk H; de Beer J; van Duin C Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(21):743-794. Abstract: The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period total fertility rate in the Netherlands has stabilized since the late 1970s at around 1.6 children per woman, and it has even risen slightly since 1995. In addition, although the Netherlands has one of the oldest first-time mothers, completed fertility is still rather high compared to other European countries, suggesting a strong "catching up" of births by women in their thirties. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the main driving forces behind specific fertility trends in the Netherlands. Among other factors, it focuses on changing patterns of home leaving and union formation, declining partnership stability, and the growing acceptability and use of contraception. The chapter also looks at prolonged education, rising labor-force participation of women, economic uncertainties, the growing migrant population, and family policies. Data allowing, and to the extent possible, we examine the effects of these factors on decision-making about parenthood and the timing of childbearing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY DECLINE | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE AGE | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | ILLEGITIMACY | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MATERNAL AGE | FAMILY SIZE | DIVORCE | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Social Problems | Contraception | Family Planning | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Human Resources | Economic Factors Document Number: 327728 |
| 11. Peer Reviewed Title: Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe: Diverse, delayed and below replacement. Author: Frejka T; Sobotka T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(3):15-46. Abstract: Early in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europe's population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In Western and Northern Europe, fertility quantum was slightly below replacement. In Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, fertility quantum as measured by the period total fertility rate (TFR) and its tempo-adjusted version was markedly below replacement; in many countries it was around 1.5, and in some populations it was as low as 1.3 to 1.4 births per woman. Throughout Europe, a historic transformation of childbearing patterns characterised by a pronounced delay of entry into parenthood has been taking place. This secular trend towards later childbearing has greatly contributed to the decline and fluctuations in period fertility rates. Delayed births were being recuperated, especially among childless women, but the extent of recuperation differs by country andregion. All in all, despite a recent upward trend in the period TFR, European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest point since the Second World War. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY CHANGES | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 327713 |
| 12. Peer Reviewed Title: Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Author: Frejka T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(7):139-170. Abstract: Societal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the latter behaviour (job insecurity, unstable partnership relationships, expensive housing, and profound changes in norms, values and attitudes) were the following: increasing proportions of young people were acquiring advanced education, a majority of women were gainfully employed, yet women were performing most household maintenance and childrearing duties. Two theories prevailed to explain what caused changes in family formation and fertility trends. One argues that the economic and social crises were the principal causes. The other considered the diffusion of western norms, values and attitudes as the prime factors of change. Neither reveals the root cause: the replacement of state socialist regimes with economic and political institutions of contemporary capitalism. The extraordinarily low period TFRs around 2000 were the result of low fertility of older women born around 1960 overlapping with low fertility of young women born during the 1970s. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | FAMILY SIZE | FERTILITY DECLINE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | SOCIAL CHANGE | FEMALE ROLE | ECONOMIC FACTORS | POLITICAL FACTORS | SOCIAL POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | Developed Countries | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Reproductive Behavior | Social Behavior | Behavior | Policy Document Number: 327717 |
| 13. Peer Reviewed Title: Sex ratio at birth and racial differences: why do black women give birth to more females than non-black women? Author: Kaba AJ Source: African Journal of Reproductive Health. 2008 Dec;12(3):139-50. Abstract: The two important questions that this paper will attempt to answer are: (1) why is it that regardless of race/ethnicity or geographic location, the sex ratio data at birth show more males than females?; and (2) Why is it that regardless of geographic location compared to other racial/ethnic groups, Black women or Women of sub-Saharan Black African descent tend to give birth to more females? Or to put this question the other way around, compared to Black women, why do non-Black women give birth to more males? Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | BLACKS | ETHNIC GROUPS | SEX RATIO | SEX FACTORS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics Document Number: 341422 |
| 14. Title: Factors responsible for the rapid decline of fertility in Nepal -- an interpretation. Further analysis of the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. Author: Karki YB; Krishna R Source: Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, MEASURE DHS, 2008 May. [30] p. (Nepal Further Analysis No. 52USAID Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00) Abstract: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Nepal in mid-1976 was estimated at 6.3 births per woman, contraceptive use among currently married women was low (3 percent) and the proportion married was high. Given these demographic parameters, no immediate change in the fertility rate in Nepal seemed plausible. In recent years however, several researchers have noted that a fertility transition has been underway in Nepal. Many factors-socioeconomic and biological-may have contributed to this precipitous decline in fertility. However, actual levels and rates of change in fertility are less certain because they also depend on the quality of data and the accuracy of measurements used. Ideally, it would have been better to re-examine the levels and trends of fertility from the survey data with earlier surveys. Instead, the focus of this paper is on examining the possible factors underlying the recent unprecedented declines in fertility. The principal measure of fertility in this part of the analysis is the total fertility rate (TFR). The paper is organized into three main parts. The first part deals with fertility levels, trends and differentials. The second part discusses the role of intermediate or proximate factors and the final part deals with the contextual or antecedent factors affecting these intermediate factors. Survey data are used to analyze the proximate determinants of fertility decline. The results of the analysis provide quantitative estimates of the contribution of changes in contraceptive use, marriage, breastfeeding and postpartum insusceptibility to the observed decline. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: NEPAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Contraception | Family Planning Document Number: 327804 |
| 15. Title: HIV and fertility decline in North-Central Namibia 1980 -- 2004. Author: Shemeikka R; Notkola V; Kuhanen J; Siiskonen H Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:7-32. Abstract: The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility and the impact of HIV on this development in North-Central Namibia from 1980 to 2004. The main sources of data consisted of parish registers for eight Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys and the 1991 and 2001 population censuses. Developments infertility were studied using the total fertility rate (TFR), age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), and standardized fertility distributions. The results show that fertility declined from 5.0 in 1980-89 to 4.1 in 1990-99 and to 3.5 in 2000-04. Among women in the 25-29 age group and older, fertility declined, while fertility among adolescents increased. Both age at first marriage and premarital fertility increased during the study period. During the 1990s, HIV infection explained 25-29% of the decline in total fertility. If mortality continues to increase as a result of the HIV epidemic while fertility continues to decline, both because of HIV infection and for other societal reasons, the implications for future population growth rates and the country's demographic structure are pronounced. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NAMIBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | HIV INFECTIONS | PARISH REGISTERS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MARRIAGE AGE | PREMARITAL PREGNANCY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Studies | Research Methodology | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Statistics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Reproductive Behavior Document Number: 326067 |
| 16. Peer Reviewed Title: France: High and stable fertility. Author: Toulemon L; Pailhe A; Rossier C Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(16):503-556. Abstract: The current total fertility rate in France is around 1.9 children per woman. This is a relatively high level by current European standards and makes France an outlier, despite the fact that its other demographic trends, especially conjugal behaviour, and social and economic trends are not very different from other Western European countries. France can serve as a counterfactual test case for some of the hypotheses advanced to explain the current low level of fertility in most European countries (delay in fertility, decline in marriage, increased birth control, greater economic uncertainty). France's fertility level can be partly explained by its active family policy introduced after the Second World War, and adapted in the 1980s to accommodate women's entry into the labour force. This policy is the result of a battle, fuelled by pro-natalism, between the conservative supporters of family values and the promoters of state-supported individual equality. French family policy thus encompasses a wide range of measures based on varying ideological backgrounds, and it is difficult to classify in comparison to the more precisely focused family policies of other European welfare states. The active family policy seems to have created especially positive attitudes towards two- or three child families in France. (author's) Language: English Keywords: FRANCE | RESEARCH REPORT | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | LABOR FORCE | WOMEN | YOUTH | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | ABORTION | POPULATION FORECAST | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Contraception | Family Planning | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Fertility Control, Postconception | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 327724 Notification |
| 17. Title: The future population of India. A long-range demographic view. Author: Population Foundation of India; Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: New Delhi, India, Population Foundation of India, 2007 Aug. 15 p. Abstract: India's population passed the one billion mark in 2000 and, this year, celebrated its 60th year as an independent country. Its population is likely to pass China's as the world's largest within 20 years. All of this leads quite naturally to the question: how large might the population of the world's largest democracy become? This is the question that the Population Foundation of India and its partner, the Population Reference Bureau, have addressed to project India's population for the long term. In this publication, two scenarios of India's future population are offered. Both assume that fertility will decline continuously to the point where couples average two children each, the goal of India's National Population Policy 2000. The scenarios differ in one respect: one assumes that states with higher current fertility will decline to the "replacement level" of 2.1 children, a common assumption in projections. The second assumes that the decline will continue to 1.85 children, near the level observed in states such as Kerala. The first scenario results in an India of two billion population while the second falls short of that mark and results in eventual population decline. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | POPULATION GROWTH | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Length of Life Document Number: 320374 |
| 18. Title: World abortion policies 2007. [Wallchart]. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2007 Apr. [2] p. Abstract: The overwhelming majority of countries, 97 per cent, permit abortion to save the woman's life. In five countries, abortion is not permitted. Abortion laws and policies are significantly more restrictive in the developing world. In developed countries, abortion is permitted for economic or social reasons in 78 per cent of countries and on request in 67 per cent of countries. In contrast, 19 per cent of developing countries permit abortion for economic or social reasons, while in 15 per cent of developing countries abortion is available on request. Many countries have additional procedural requirements that must be met before an abortion may be legally performed. Additional requirements may relate to the gestational limits within which abortion may be performed, mandatory waiting period, parental or spousal consent, third-party authorization, the categories of health providers permitted to perform abortions, the types of medical facilities where abortions may be performed and mandatory counseling. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | TABLES AND CHARTS | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | PREGNANT WOMEN | POLICYMAKERS | ABORTION LAW | SOCIAL POLICY | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | ABORTION RATE | ABORTION | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Mortality Document Number: 326757 Notification |
| 19. Title: Demography of the tribal groups of Rajasthan: 2. Levels, differentials and trends in fertility. Author: Bhasin MK; Nag S Source: Anthropologist. 2007 Jan;9(1):39-46. Abstract: In the present paper, descriptions of "current" and cumulative fertility among the six major Scheduled Tribes have been discussed. Differences in levels of fertility across Scheduled Tribes seemed to be due to the influence of independent determinants as well as different levels of development, viz., Minas have again shown lesser fertility level as compared to other tribes under study. The relationship between fertility and such independent determinants as, economic and socio-cultural characteristics, physical environment has also been explored, which revealed possible influence. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | TRIBES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY | BIRTH RATE | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CHILD-WOMAN RATIO | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Rate Document Number: 320531 |
| 20. Title: A simple analysis of recent trends in total fertility rates in Bangladesh: What can the family-planning programme do to reinitiate fertility decline? Author: Bhuiya A; Rahman MS Source: Dhaka, Bangladesh, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B], 2007 Mar. 16 p. (Scientific Report No. 98) Abstract: The total fertility rate has been stagnant in Bangladesh during the last 10 years. This study mainly examined the proportion of unwanted births and use of family-planning methods among couples with less than four and four or more living children in rural and urban Bangladesh using data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys and Matlab Demographic Surveillance System of ICDDR,B. Results of the study showed that 90% of 2,750 couples with more than three living children did not want an additional child. The contraceptive-use rate among them was only around 50%. Thus, by catering to the needs of this motivated group of high-parity couples who contribute to 30% of total births in the country, the total fertility rate can be reduced to around 2.5. The possible strategies for targeting high-parity couples through the existing service-delivery system are also discussed in the paper. (author's) Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | COUPLES | RURAL AREAS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FAMILY SIZE, DESIRED | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FERTILITY DECLINE | HEALTH SERVICES | DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Geographic Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Family Size | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Fertility Changes | Health Document Number: 322386 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: High fertility Gambians in low fertility Spain: The dynamics of child accumulation across transnational space. Author: Bledsoe C; Houle R; Sow P Source: Demographic Research. 2007 May 3;16(12):375-412. Abstract: Based on an analysis of the Spanish census and the January 1, 2005 municipal register and on exploratory fieldwork in Catalonia, this paper combines ethnography and demography, in conjunction with current Spanish reunification law, to examine the dynamics of what appears to be high fertility among Gambian immigrants living in Spain. We suggest that this high fertility rate reflects several things. One is the high costs of living in Spain for an unskilled, often-undocumented, but also relatively longstanding Sub-Saharan group from a homeland with high rates of fertility: a homeland with which close ties remain vital for migrants in highly marginal conditions. Another is the replacement, in some cases, of older wives by younger ones from Africa, resulting in high rates of reproduction for short slices of time by a circulating pool of young women. We focus, however, on the role of Spanish and European policies themselves in shaping these numbers, particularly those policies that place restrictions onthe free movement of people. We conclude that the most interesting demographic facet of this population may not be high fertility but rather the paradoxical dynamics of child accumulation in particular geographic regions as an artifact of Spanish law itself. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GAMBIA | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | WOMEN | FERTILITY RATE | FAMILY SIZE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE FACTORS | POLICY | MIGRATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Population Characteristics | Political Factors Document Number: 313481 |
| 22. Title: Family planning in Ghana. Author: Caldwell JC; Sai FT Source: In: The global family planning revolution: three decades of population policies and programs, edited by Warren C. Robinson and John A. Ross. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2007. :379-391. Abstract: Among all the regions of the developing world, fertility decline and family planning programs came last to Sub-Saharan Africa. Good reasons account for this. Indeed, foundations and governments, and accordingly technical aid programs, doubted the value of introducing population programs to the region in the 1960s, as the countries were poor, attitudes were mostly pro-natalist, and independence was recent. The early Population Council program in Ghana happened largely by accident, but Ghana turned out to be a fortunate setting. It was the earliest European colony in Sub-Saharan Africa to win its independence, doing so as early as 1957. It was also relatively rich, exporting large amounts of cocoa, gold, bauxite, industrial diamonds, and mahogany. In the early 1960s, its spending on education as a proportion of national income was the highest in the world. It was not riven by serious ethnic conflicts or demands to divide the country into separate nations. Above all, modernizing attitudes were widespread, both under President Kwame Nkrumah and under later regimes. Admittedly, Nkrumah's socialist beliefs led him to oppose family planning programs, but not the demographic research that implied the need for such programs. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GHANA | HISTORICAL REVIEW | TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE | CENSUS | FAMILY PLANNING | POPULATION GROWTH | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | GOALS | INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION | ABORTION LAW | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FERTILITY RATE | POLITICAL FACTORS | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | Developing Countries | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Programs | Organization and Administration | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Planning | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 321997 Notification |
| 23. Title: Lowest-low fertility. Signs of a recovery in Italy? Author: Caltabiano M; Castiglioni M; Rosina A Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. [22] p. Abstract: In the first part of our paper we present and discuss current developments with regard to fertility in Italy, both at the national and regional levels, using data recently published by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. We apply a cohort approach, showing changes both in CTFR and in the timing of births for the 1950-1980 cohorts. In the second part of our paper, we focus on "late first-birth fertility" (entry into motherhood after the age of 35), using individual level data from the 2003 Istat multipurpose survey on the family "Famiglia e soggetti sociali". We investigate both the determinants of postponement (or the propensity to reach age 35 without having had a child) as well as the determinants of recovery (or the propensity to subsequently have a child for those women who reach age 35 with parity zero). (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: ITALY | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | COHORT ANALYSIS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | FERTILITY CHANGES | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL AGE | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | AGE CUMULATIVE FERTILITY RATE | VOLUNTARY CHILDLESSNESS | MATERNAL AGE, 35 AND OVER | Europe, Southern | Europe | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Reproductive Behavior Document Number: 317359 |
| 24. Title: Continuing fertility decline in South Korea. Author: Choe MK; Kim SK Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. [2] p. Abstract: The total fertility rate in South Korea reached the replacement level in 1983 and continued to decline to lowest low level in 2001 (TFR=1.30). The latest estimate of the total fertility for 2004 is 1.08. Studies on fertility behavior up to year 2000 indicate that the major factor associated with declining total fertility rate is the trend toward later marriage and less marriage. Singulate mean age at marriage among men increased from 27.3 in 1980 to 32.0 in 2005, and among women, it increased from 24.1 in 1980 to 28.8 in 2005. While age at first marriage is increasing the proportion of children being born to never married women remained at below 2% level. This trend, with very small proportion of women having more than two children have resulted in continuing decline of total fertility rate in the past 20 years. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: REPUBLIC OF KOREA | RESEARCH REPORT | FERTILITY SURVEYS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | FERTILITY DECLINE | FIRST BIRTH INTERVALS | FAMILY SIZE, DESIRED | HOME ECONOMICS | EMPLOYMENT STATUS | ATTITUDES | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Changes | Birth Intervals | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 317361 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: An explanatory model for projecting regional fertility differences in the Netherlands. Author: de Beer J; Deerenberg I Source: Population Research and Policy Review. 2007 Dec;26(5-6):511-528. Abstract: Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish quickly. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN | URBAN POPULATION | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | CULTURAL BACKGROUND | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Data Analysis | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Population | Population Characteristics | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 313963 |
| 26. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility preferences, contraceptive behaviors and unmet needs: A gap between urban and suburban parts of a city. Author: Dinc G; Eser E; Cihan UA; Ay S; Pala T Source: European Journal of Contraception and Reproductive Health Care. 2007 Mar;12(1):86-94. Abstract: Objectives: To explore the differences in unwanted fertility in different parts of a city. Methods: Data were obtained from the 1999 Manisa Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) in Turkey. We collected information from a representative sample of 1728 ever married women aged 15-49 years on fertility, fertility preferences, unmet need for family planning, contraceptive discontinuation, and abortion. Data were analyzed using SPSS 10.0 for Windows. Results: Of the persons studied, 1238 (71.6%) were living in urban settlements and 490 (28.4%) in suburban (gecekondu) settlements. The total fertility rate is higher among gecekondu women (2.42) than among urban women (2.14) although gecekondu women have a lower wanted fertility rate (1.54) than urban women (1.77). Married women in the urban area were currently using a contraceptive method more frequently (75.6%) than those living in the gecekondu area (61.7%) (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.9-3.2; p<0.001). The unmet need percentage in gecekondu women (17.7%) is higher than in urban women (8.3%; p<0.001). The induced abortion rate is higher in urban women (14.8 per 1000 pregnancies) than in gecekondu women (7.1 per 1000 pregnancies; OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.4-3.1; p<0.001). Conclusions: There are inequalities in the achievement of fertility preferences and in accessibility to family planning services between urban and suburban parts of the city. (author's) Language: English Keywords: TURKEY | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | KAP SURVEYS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | URBAN POPULATION | EVER MARRIED | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | SUBURBANIZATION | CONTRACEPTION TERMINATION | ABORTION RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Developing Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility | Contraception | Family Planning | Urbanization | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 313278 Notification |
| 27. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility regulation and reproductive health in the Millennium Development Goals: the search for a perfect indicator. Author: Dixon-Mueller R; Germain A Source: American Journal of Public Health. 2007 Jan 1;97(1):45-51. Abstract: Although several key elements of sexual and reproductive health are included in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, a measure of women's capacity to regulate their fertility safely and effectively is missing. We considered the usefulness of 3 pairs of indicators in monitoring this component of reproductive health: contraceptive prevalence and total fertility; unmet need for contraception and unplanned births; and unsafe abortion and abortion mortality. A single measure of contraceptive use is insufficient. The risks women face from unplanned births and unsafe abortion should also be incorporated into the monitoring process, either directly within the Millennium Development Goals framework or as a parallel effort by reporting governments and other agencies. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EVALUATION RESEARCH | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | GOALS | UN | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | MONITORING | CONTRACEPTIVE SAFETY | CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CONTRACEPTIVE AVAILABILITY | PREGNANCY, UNPLANNED | ABORTION | Evaluation Methodology | Evaluation | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Planning | Organization and Administration | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Family Planning | Safety | Public Health | Health | Contraception | Contraceptive Usage | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Control, Postconception Document Number: 310706 Notification |
| 28. Title: Understanding fertility decline in Egypt. Author: El-Zanaty F Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 18 p. Abstract: The Egyptian government policy objective, for long, have been to slow the growth rate of population. In 1975, the National Population Policy was articulated, focusing on four dimensions of Egypt's population problem: rapid growth, spatial mal-distribution, low-level characteristics, and uneven structure. During earlier phases of Egypt's Population Program, significant achievements were accomplished showing the great success of the program especially in the area of family planning. These achievements continued and were reflected and measured by different indicators. For example, the total fertility rate dropped from 5.3 at the time of the 1980 EFS to 3.5 births per woman at the time of the 2000 EDHS and then decreased at a slower pace to 3.1 at the time of the EDHS 2005. In addition, the contraceptive prevalence increased remarkably from 24 percent in 1980 to 56 in 2000 then increased to 59 percent in 2005. Despite of the success of the Family Planning Component of the National Population Program yet the Family Planning Program still faces challenges to meet it's primarily goal of achieving a full demographic transition to two children per family by year 2017. This paper aims at studying and providing an insight understanding of the nature and pace of change in fertility in Egypt; both total fertility rate and martial fertility rate over the period between 1988 and 2005. In addition, the paper also investigates factors that influence fertility change in the country using Bongaarts Proximate Determinants Framework. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EGYPT | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | ETHNIC GROUPS | WOMEN | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | CHANGES | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | MARITAL FERTILITY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developing Countries | Africa, North | Africa | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 317730 |
| 29. Title: Towards below replacement fertility in Southern Africa. Author: Garenne ML; Tollman SM; Kahn K Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 19 p. Abstract: The aims were to analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and of increasing HIV/AIDS. A health and demographic surveillance system is in place since 1992 in Agincourt, on a population of approximately 70 000 persons, with annual census and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented with a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. The fertility transition has almost ended over a period of 25 years in Agincourt. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979, and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in a proportionate fashion in all age groups, including adolescents in the recent period. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At the current rates of changes in fertility and mortality, the NRR could be expected to reach 0.63 by year 2010. The situation of a below replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications in the future. The population might even decline for the country as a whole, and is already stagnating in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess of natural increase. (author's) Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | RURAL AREAS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY RATE | CHANGES | NET REPRODUCTION RATE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY DECLINE | CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS | HIV INFECTIONS | IMPACT | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Population Decrease | Fertility Changes | Contraception | Family Planning | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Communication Document Number: 317729 |
| 30. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility, age structure and demographic transition in the former Soviet Republics: The Central Asian Republics in focus. Author: Gentile M Source: Population, Space and Place. 2007 Nov-Dec;13(6):433-454. Abstract: Synthesising data from Soviet and post-Soviet statistical sources, this paper provides a general overview of some of the major population trends of the Former Soviet Union with a special focus on the Central Asian Republics. The paper investigates the characteristics of the countries' vital statistics, paths of demographic transition and age structure as they have developed during the past 50-60 years. Particular emphasis is placed upon data and methodological problems encountered when doing population research on the region. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ASIA, CENTRAL | RESEARCH REPORT | CENSUS | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY CHANGES | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | Developing Countries | Asia | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 321497 |
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