| 1. Title: Analytical theory of biological populations. Author: Lotka AJ Source: New York, New York, Plenum Press, 1998. xxxi, 220 p. (Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis) Abstract: This is an English translation of the work that Lotka published in the two-part Theorie Analytique des Associations Biologiques in 1934 and 1939, and represents Lotka's contributions in the field of demographic analysis. Among the concepts discussed are renewable and stable population theory, observed and intrinsic rates, relations between various demographic measures, and specific problems associated with reproduction and death. (ANNOTATION) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | THEORETICAL STUDIES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | FERTILITY | MORTALITY | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Estimation Techniques | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 256542 |
| 2. Title: [Sibling size in a stable population] Author: Suzuki T Source: Jinko Mondai Kenkyu / Journal of Population Problems. 1997;53(4):67-74. Abstract: This document deals with two issues related to the expected value of the number of sisters with respect to the stable population of females. The first points out that the expected number of sisters is calculated using a special method. To devise a probability of the distribution of sisters that is based on the probability of the distribution of daughters, it is necessary to extract from the calculation the number of mothers in order to identify the number of sisters within the daughter population. This value is then compared to the value that results when the number of daughters is removed from the calculations. The second issue is to estimate the attainment value of the number of sisters with respect to young females whose number of sisters is yet to be determined. While the number of elder sisters is determined at birth, newborn infants do not have any younger sisters. The number of younger sisters may increase over time, but this increase stops once their mothers exceed reproductive age. The expected number of younger sisters with respect to the entire population is deduced by consolidating this process in a cross-sectoral manner. (excerpt) Language: Japanese Keywords: SIBLINGS | FAMILY SIZE | DAUGHTERS | STABLE POPULATION | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | DATA ANALYSIS | RELIABILITY | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Measurement Document Number: 138132 |
| 3. Title: The development and use of demographic models. Author: Coale A; Trussell J Source: POPULATION STUDIES. 1996 Nov;50(3):469-84. Abstract: "In this review, we first examine two classical demographic models--conventional life tables and stable populations--and a modern generalization of stable population theory; we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules of mortality, nuptiality, marital fertility, fertility, and migration that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations about the purposes and uses of demographic models." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | THEORETICAL MODELS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | LIFE TABLES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | AGE FACTORS | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION FORECAST | POSTPARTUM AMENORRHEA | INFERTILITY | Research Methodology | Life Table Method | Demographic Analysis | Estimation Techniques | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Puerperium | Reproduction Document Number: 252534 |
| 4. Title: [Financial transfers from individuals with high fertility to those with low fertility] Les cadeaux financiers des surfeconds aux sous-feconds. Author: Henripin J Source: POPULATION. 1995 Jul-Oct;50(4-5):1,053-77. Abstract: "Financial transfers between more fertile and less fertile members of a cohort are made indirectly through payment of taxes and the provision of certain services related to age, such as education, health, and pensions. Those whose fertility is low subsidize their more fertile contemporaries by contributing to the cost of education; the more fertile produce taxpayers who will, in their turn become contributors to health and pension funds. The age distribution of the population plays a crucial part in this process of redistribution, and the author assesses its impact by using stable population models. When a population is relatively old, net transfers between groups may be substantial, and benefit those in groups with low fertility, especially those who have substantially less than the average number of children." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) (EXCERPT) Language: French Keywords: GLOBAL | HIGH FERTILITY POPULATION | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | ECONOMIC FACTORS | RESOURCE ALLOCATION | FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES | AGE DISTRIBUTION | FAMILY SIZE | INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Microeconomic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 250669 |
| 5. Title: Populations with quadratic exponential growth. Author: Kim YJ; Schoen R Source: Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Population Center, 1995. 19, [5] p. (Papers on Population WP 95-3) Abstract: Stable population models are static, while dynamic models with changing vital rates are needed to capture the behavior of actual populations. Hyperstable population models were developed for dynamic modeling that specify a trajectory of births over time and consistent trajectory of age schedules of vital rates. Hyperstable populations whose birth trajectories are described by an exponential quadratic are discussed drawing on Coale's 1972 work. It is shown that when the birth function is an exponentiated quadratic, the hyperstable net maternity function can change in a simple and demographically meaningful way that produces dynamic equilibrium. If age-specific net maternity changes exponentially over both age and time, the corresponding birth trajectory is a quadratic exponential. Three models are introduced: 1) the general continuous time model (a fixed proportional distribution of births, a constant age pattern of net maternity, and net maternity with a constant mean value), 2) the exponential quadratic model (the birth and net maternity functions, net reproduction rate, age distribution, age-dependent growth, crude rate of natural increase, growth rate of the associated stable population, age-time-specific momentum, and the Kullback distance), and the specification of discrete model with convergence to hyperstability. The process of convergence to hyperstability is the same as the process of convergence to classical stability. Assuming a fixed proportional distribution of births by age of mother, the pattern of change in the net maternity function and the net reproduction rate are examined. If mortality remains constant over time, the exponentiated quadratic population and its associated stable population are in dynamic equilibrium over time as measured by the Kullback distance, which measures the degree the 2 age distributions differ. The result is a model with monotonically changing fertility that maintains a dynamic equilibrium, a flexible and relatively simple analytical tool. Language: English Keywords: METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | THEORETICAL MODELS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | POPULATION GROWTH | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 104818 |
| 6. Title: Generalized Lotka distribution incorporating migration. Author: Lalu NM; Krishnan P Source: JANASAMKHYA. 1994;12(1-2):99-106. Abstract: "This paper proposes to introduce the migration component into the stable population model and examine the stability of the age distribution. The analysis [is restricted] to one sex as [has been] done by others." The model is applied to Canadian data. (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: CANADA | MIGRATION | THEORETICAL MODELS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | AGE DISTRIBUTION | North America, Northern | Americas | Developed Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Age Factors | Population Characteristics Document Number: 255468 |
| 7. Title: Estimation of adult mortality from information on the distribution of deaths by age. Author: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: In: Readings in population research methodology. Volume 2. Mortality research, edited by Donald J. Bogue, Eduardo E. Arriaga, Douglas L. Anderton, George W. Rumsey. Chicago, Illinois, Social Development Center, 1993. :8-61 - 8-78. Published for the United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Abstract: The straightforward way of calculating mortality rates is by using the information on deaths by age produced by a vital registration system. However, the death rate implied by the reported deaths is usually underestimated and some method of adjustment is required to better estimate true mortality conditions. Two methods were presented, the Preston and Coale method and the method proposed by Brass. They both assume that the population is static and that the completeness of death registration is the same at all ages after childhood (over age 5 or 10). These methods are used only to estimate adult mortality. The basic data required may be obtained from a vital registration system (deaths by age) and a census (age distribution of the population) or from retrospective or prospective surveys. In the Preston and Coale method an equation is derived from stable-population theory that relates the population of a certain age to the deaths over a certain age range expanded by a series of factors incorporating the stable growth rate. This method is more resistant to departures from stability than the Brass method, but it is more sensitive to certain types of age misreporting. Under the Brass growth balance method in a stable population, the rate of entry into the population of a certain age and over by reaching a certain age is equal to the rate of departure from the same population segment through death plus the stable population growth rate. This method uses this relation to estimate the stable growth rate and the relative completeness of death registration. It is somewhat less vulnerable to age exaggeration than the Preston and Coale method, but it is more sensitive to the effects of destabilization resulting from a raid mortality decline. Language: English Keywords: MORTALITY | MORTALITY DETERMINANTS | ADULTS | VITAL STATISTICS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | DEMOGRAPHY | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Population Statistics | Death Rate | Social Sciences Document Number: 093580 |
| 8. Title: Stable population theory. Author: Coale AJ Source: In: Readings in population research methodology. Volume 5. Population models, projections and estimates, edited by Donald J. Bogue, Eduardo E. Arriaga, Douglas L. Anderton, George W. Rumsey. Chicago, Illinois, Social Development Center, 1993. :19-3 - 19-6. Published for United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Abstract: A.J. Lotka in 1911 proved in his stable population theory that a population not gaining or losing by migration and subject to an unchanging age-schedule of death rates and rates of childbearing, has an age distribution, birth rate, death rate, and rate of increase that do not change. This property of converging to a fixed form was labelled strong ergodicity by John Hajnal (1958), meaning that long prevailing unchanging age structure of the stable population is independent of its form at a much earlier time. In 1957, Coale made the conjecture that all human populations forget their past, since the age distribution of France is no longer much affected by the excess mortality and reduced numbers of births existing during the Napoleonic wars. The independence of a changing age distribution from past influences is called weak ergodicity, whose mathematical proof for human population was provided by Alvaro Lopez (1961). A proof of weak ergodicity when population density is treated as a continuous function of age and time (Lopez, 1967) provides a background for the equations that characterize a stable population. A population distributed in discrete age intervals is characterized by a transition matrix, the Leslie Matrix (1945). The terms weak and strong ergodicity were first applied to finite Markov chains (Hajnal, 1958); weak ergodicity as a property of populations was first proved by Lopez in 1961. Earlier, Leonard Euler (1760) had postulated a population subject to the hypothesis of mortality (a fixed life table) and the hypothesis of multiplication. Joshua Milne (1815) cited Euler and developed a full set of equations for a constantly growing population with a fixed life table. Malthus published an essay entitled Population in 1824 in which he (with Milne's help) constructed a stable population from a life table borrowed with Sweden and Finland. The stable population theory is useful in making good estimates from faulty data. Language: English Keywords: HISTORICAL REVIEW | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | BIRTH RATE | DEATH RATE | MARKOV CHAIN | LIFE TABLES | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION THEORY | DEMOGRAPHY | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | CHANGES | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Mortality | Probability | Statistical Studies | Studies | Life Table Method | Demographic Analysis | Social Sciences | Social Change Document Number: 093892 |
| 9. Title: Mathematics and population research. Author: Krishnan P Source: In: Methodology for population studies and development, edited by Kuttan Mahadevan, Parameswara Krishnan. New Delhi, India, Sage, 1993. :218-40. Abstract: The use of mathematical tools in the study of population process is surveyed. Models can be dynamic or static: discrete or continuous; deterministic or stochastic; process or non process models. A new category of models, catastrophe models, were popularized by Renee Thom. However, there are very few applications of catastrophe models in population research. Among deterministic models of population growth can be listed: the simplistic Malthusian law, logistic, law, Lotka's stable population model, population projections, and the quasi-stable population model. Lotka showed that if the age specific fertility and mortality rates remain unchanged for a long period of time, the age distribution of the population will attain a steady state. Logistic based forecasts for the population of the US for 1940 did not come close to the actual census count. In order to make the population projections realistic, various assumptions are made about the paths of mortality and fertility. For countries that require migration to be considered, some estimates of migration are made and added to the projection results using assumptions about the vital rates. Models for studying mortality include life tables, Gompertz curve, Makeham curve, Weibull curve, generalized Gompertz curves, type I Pearson curve, pure death process, and mortality transition as a log-normal process. Models of human fertility comprise pure birth and birth and birth and death processes, branching process, fertility transition as a log-normal process, Pearson type I curve, Gompertz curve, and stochastic model of fertility. Additionally, models for marriage and marriage breakdown and migration are detailed. Language: English Keywords: MATHEMATICAL MODEL | POPULATION PROJECTION | THEORETICAL MODELS | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | MALTHUSIANISM | LOGISTIC MODEL | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | LIFE TABLE METHOD | MORTALITY | FERTILITY | MARRIAGE AGE | MIGRATION | POPULATION THEORY | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Demography | Social Sciences | Demographic Analysis | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 090246 |
| 10. Title: A three-dimensional framework of theory construction in demography. Author: Liao TF Source: In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 3, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. :389-404. Abstract: A 3-dimensional framework of demographic theory construction is discussed. A theory can be evaluated in the 3 dimensions of confirmation and falsification capacity, the extent of scope conditions, and of its potential for inducing new theoretical paradigms. Examples of stable population theory, relative deprivation theory in migration, and the development of fertility theories (Malthusian, demographic transition, economics approach) are demonstrated in the framework. Stable population theory is studied as an example of pure demographic theory. Relative deprivation theory in migration studies is used to illustrate the adoption and adaptation of theories from other social science disciplines. The theoretical development in fertility studies is examined. Liao develops a 3=dimensional framework of theory construction that integrates the 3 research traditions in the philosophy of science and social science. In the 1st dimension scientists attempt to confirm or falsify theories empirically. Falsification has a strong following in the social sciences including statistics, which is heavily used in demography. In the 2nd dimension, theories are examined by either setting or adjusting their scope conditions, having been tested for reasons of falsification or justification. This dimension is especially meaningful for disciplines such as social demography, in which universal patterns are more difficult to find than in population genetics. Finally, a theory may be able to induce paradigm shift. Stable population theory is extremely resistant to falsification, with relatively general applicability, and challenges any serious competing theories. Relative deprivation theory in migration is relatively resistant to falsification, has rather general applicability, but does not evaluate well in the dimension of potential for making paradigm shift. The 3 dimensions will contribute a great deal to theory construction and testing, if the minimum standards are satisfied. Language: English Keywords: DEMOGRAPHY | SOCIAL SCIENCES | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | FERTILITY | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | AGE DISTRIBUTION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Economic Factors Document Number: 090070 |
| 11. Title: The role of marital fertility in Irish population history, 1750-1840. Author: Schellekens J Source: ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW. 1993 May;46(2):369-78. Abstract: This note concerns efforts to identify causes of the rapid population growth that occurred in Ireland during the second half of the eighteenth century and the early nineteenth century. It "aims to show that the employment of a logical framework imposed by demographic constraints may limit the number of possible solutions to questions about the causes of Irish population growth and relatively high marital fertility. For instance, using stable population theory and a fertility model, it can be shown that a rise in marital fertility is unlikely to explain the whole increase in the growth rate in Ireland....I shall suggest that the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible period, which is strongly influenced by breastfeeding patterns, was the more likely cause of a rise in marital fertility. I shall also speculate on the cause of change in breastfeeding patterns in Ireland during the eighteenth century." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: IRELAND | NORTHERN IRELAND | HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | MARITAL FERTILITY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION GROWTH | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | POSTPARTUM AMENORRHEA | BREASTFEEDING | CHANGES | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | United Kingdom | Demography | Social Sciences | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Puerperium | Reproduction | Infant Nutrition | Nutrition | Health | Social Change Document Number: 238184 |
| 12. Title: Hyperstability. Author: Schoen R; Kim YJ Source: Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins Population Center, 1993 Oct. 23, [5] p. (Papers on Population WP 93-10) Abstract: This paper describes a closed form demographic model with changing vital rates. The hyperstable model replaces the strict stable population assumption of constant rates of fertility and mortality with the weaker assumption of an unchanging proportional distribution of births by age of mother. Given a functional form for the birth trajectory, the hyperstable relationship shown in equation (7) specifies the pattern of net maternity over age and time. The authors examine 8 different functional forms for births that span a broad range of demographic experience. Cubic exponential and sinusoidal birth and fertility functions are illustrated using hypothetical data. With data for the US from 1920 through 1973, the birth sequence is shown to approximate a cubic hyperstable population and, for the post-1960 period, the Net Reproduction Rate of the hyperstable population is close to the actual Net Reproduction Rate. The flexible and dynamic nature of hyperstable populations suggests a great potential for use in demographic modeling and estimation. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | THEORETICAL MODELS | FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHY | CHANGES | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Sciences | Social Change Document Number: 090778 |
| 13. Title: [A study of the characteristics of a population, with reference to a stable model with constant nuptiality] Studio delle caratteristiche di una popolazione, con riferimento ad un modello stabile in regime di nuzialita costante. Author: Sonnino E Source: In: Per una storia della popolazione italiana: problemi de metodo, by D. Argelli et al. Bologna, Italy, Universita degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Paolo Fortunati, 1993. :97-116. Abstract: A new approach to the theory of stable populations is presented that depends on marriage data. The approach is illustrated using statistics for Breschi in Tuscany, Italy, for the period 1820-1899. The author illustrates how this approach can be used to improve estimates of population trends when data on births and deaths are incomplete. (ANNOTATION) Language: Italian Keywords: ITALY | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | STABLE POPULATION | MARRIAGE | NUPTIALITY | Europe, Southern | Europe | Developed Countries | Demography | Social Sciences | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 240952 |
| 14. Title: [Stable multiregional population as a tool for economic analysis. An application to Italy, 1977-1986] La population multiregionale stable comme instrument d'analyse conjoncturelle. Une application a l'Italie, 1977-1986. Author: Termote M; Bonaguidi A Source: CAHIERS QUEBECOIS DE DEMOGRAPHIE. 1993 Fall;22(2):313-38. Abstract: "The intensity of short-term fluctuations in a population's demographic behaviour is often overshadowed by a force of inertia resulting from the structures inherited from past behaviour. Stable population theory produces an effective way to eliminate this 'weight of the past'. This article presents the results of an application of this approach in analyzing changes in the fertility, migration and mortality regime of the Italian population during the 1977-1986 period." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) (EXCERPT) Language: French Keywords: ITALY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | FERTILITY | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | Europe, Southern | Europe | Developed Countries | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology Document Number: 242740 |
| 15. Title: The impact of fertility change on population distribution. Author: Willekens F Source: NIDI/CBGS PUBLICATION. 1993;(27):161-93. Abstract: "This chapter presents a method for assessing the impact of various patterns of change in regional fertility and migration on the population size and its spatial distribution. The method is based on stable population theory, in particular the theory of the reproductive value....[The author] applies the theory to assess, analytically and numerically, the consequences of different patterns of regional fertility change on the distribution of the population, given the prevailing regimes of mortality and migration. [He then] presents and discusses an application to the Netherlands." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | MIGRATION | POPULATION SIZE | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | MORTALITY | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Geographic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 241056 |
| 16. Title: The relative-stable population perspective and a population dynamics model. Author: Chen J Source: Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1992. [17], 216 p. (Order No. 9331604) Doctoral dissertation, Mississippi State University, 1992. Abstract: The focus was to reexamine age specific mortality and fertility rates for single years of age in order to gain a theoretical perspective which will explain population processes better. The population dynamics model with the assumption of stability was used to approximate population in the future. The population dynamic model was applied in 1970 to the population of Japan, Sweden, the Netherlands, and China (1982) and compared to census enumerations and other population projections. Background information was provided on the various theoretical perspectives: ancient and medieval ideas, Malthus, classical and socialist and Marxist perspectives, Social Darwinism and the biological perspective, stable population theory, and demographic transition theory. Mathematical and statistical demography was discussed for mathematical models, the cohort component method, the economic model, and the matrix model. A full description of the relative stable population perspective and the population dynamic model were given. Stable population theory was differentiated from the relative stable population perspective in three ways. The perspective pertains to a limited time, while the theory refers to an indefinite time span. The perspective uses single years of age rather than 5 years cohorts. Theory assumes that the age structure is regular and close to migration, while the perspective recognizes both irregular and regular age structures. The perspective treats fertility and mortality rates as constant only when these rates are stable. When a stimulus is strong enough, there are changes in age specific fertility and mortality rates. Sources of stimulus are usually war, famine, disease, new economic conditions, new conditions of health care and hygiene, changes in traditional values or culture, introduction of new technology, and new policy and legislation. Data was obtained directly from statistical bureaus in the respective countries. Differences in enumerated versus approximated populations are due to errors in enumeration, the process of curve fitting, small changes in vital statistics, and unpredictable migration, which for the study population was zero. The findings showed that the perspective applied, and only strong stimuli will affect mortality and fertility. When the stimulus is weakened, there is a stabilization of rates for single years, but at a different level. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | NETHERLANDS | JAPAN | SWEDEN | THEORETICAL STUDIES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION PROJECTION | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | AGE FACTORS | THEORETICAL MODELS | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Europe, Northern | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics Document Number: 093488 |
| 17. Title: Immigration into a population with fertility below replacement level--the case of Germany. Author: Feichtinger G; Steinmann G Source: POPULATION STUDIES. 1992 Jul;46(2):275-84. Abstract: "In this paper stable population theory is used to study the demographic effects of a steady stream of immigrants into a population with fertility below replacement level. It is assumed that the fertility of foreigners (persons born outside of this country) is higher than that of the native-born. We present a discrete-time Leslie-type model and analyse its asymptotic stationary behaviour. We prove that the asymptotic ratio between foreign-born and native-born does not depend on the size of the immigration flow, but solely on the relative fertility of the two groups, the sex ratio, and age distribution of the immigrants." Data for East and West Germany for 1988 are used to illustrate the model. The effects of continuous immigration on population size in united Germany under various demographic hypotheses are examined. (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY | GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC | GERMANY | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | MIGRANTS | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | THEORETICAL MODELS | SEX RATIO | AGE DISTRIBUTION | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | FOREIGNERS | NATIVE-BORN | POPULATION SIZE | POPULATION PROJECTION | Europe, Central | Europe | Developed Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Decrease | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Age Factors | Nationality Document Number: 236388 |
| 18. Title: Optimal estimate of population age structure with varying vital rates. Author: Hsieh Y Source: MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES. 1992;3(4):289-99. Abstract: The author presents a method for estimating the age distribution of a population under varying vital statistics. "Some mathematical aspects of the method, as well as its applicability, will be discussed and numerical simulation will be run to illustrate the results and to compare the method with the traditional estimate of stable population theory...." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | AGE DISTRIBUTION | VITAL STATISTICS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Statistics Document Number: 236275 |
| 19. Title: Duration-dependent multistate population dynamics. Author: Inaba H Source: Tokyo, 100-45, Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1992 Jan. 20 p. (Working Paper Series No. 9) Abstract: This paper attempts to construct a stable growth theory for duration-dependent multi-state populations. This will make it possible to combine the birth process with the interstate duration-dependent transition process. 2 theoretical models are provided which deterministically describe the dynamics of duration-dependent multi-state populations. Respectively, the models are formulated by a system of 1st order partial differential equations with integral boundary conditions. The 1st model uses an age-specific birth rate function to give the birth law. This implies that childbirth is independent of the transition between states. Thus, the 1st model is an expansion of the classical multi-regional stable population model. The 2nd model is used if childbirth causes transition between states, in this case a parity structured population must be formulated. Both cases allow the proof of strong ergodic theorems. A brief mention of the relationship between the deterministic approach and the semi-Markov model is made in conclusion. Language: English Keywords: MATHEMATICAL MODEL | THEORETICAL MODELS | TIME FACTORS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 073153 |
| 20. Title: Effects of mortality, fertility, and international migration on age structure: an application of the open stable population concept. Author: Lachapelle R Source: In: Changing population age structures: demographic and economic consequences and implications, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe [and] United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations, 1992. :272-80. Abstract: This UN monograph article relies on the open stable population model (OSPM) to examine the effect of fertility, mortality, and international migration on the age structure of the Canadian population and the continuing aging of its population. Two mortality functions are used: mortality in the beginning of the 1980s, and very low mortality estimates generated by the UN. The OSPM is based on a constant overall annual growth rate, a constant age structure, and a constant proportion of immigrant population at each age over time, and on a new immigration indicator that accounts for emigration and immigration and below replacement fertility. Findings indicate that for an equal increase in the growth rate, increased fertility improves the age structure more than immigration. Immigration must be massive in order to compensate for under replacement level fertility. The declines in mortality before the 1970s, had the effect of slowing down population aging that was due to fertility decline. Since the 1970s, the gains in life expectancy were, and continue to be, associated with increased population aging. Both fertility and mortality declines, at present, contribute to population aging. Increased fertility increases the percentage of youth and decreases the percentage of elderly. Increased immigration increases the number of young adults, reduces the increase in the percentage of youth, and reduces the decrease in the percentage of elderly. The immigrant percentage of population would have to be about 21% in order to prevent a population with a total fertility rate of 1.74 from declining. A large increase in immigration would have an impact on the ethnic and linguistic structure of national populations. Language: English Keywords: CANADA | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | MORTALITY | FERTILITY | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | North America, Northern | Americas | Developed Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Migration | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 130807 |
| 21. Title: National population forecasting: state-of-the-art and research needs. Author: Willekens FJ Source: In: National population forecasting in industrialized countries. A survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, the Bureau of the Census (United States Department of Commerce), and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, edited by Nico Keilman and Harri Cruijsen. Amsterdam, Netherlands, Swets and Zeitlinger, 1992. :283-322. (NIDI CBGS Publications 24) Abstract: The literature of demographic forecasting, the practices of national forecasting agencies, and the state of the art are reviewed. The conceptual framework encompasses the dynamics of demographic phenomena and their interdependence with the changing social, economic, and cultural contexts. In the selection of the projection model, the cohort-component model (Leslie model) is generally used. Two other formulations of the projection model are: the time-continuous model (Lotka model) and the generalized stable population model (McKendrick model). In the forecasting of the components of population change (fertility, mortality and international or external migration) the models used are diverse (autoregressive moving average model or AR-MA, age-period-cohort or APC model, the cohort ARIMA(CARIMA) model). The causes of uncertainty are also reviewed, and measures to quantify uncertainty (chaos mathematics or non-linear deterministic systems) and strategies to deal with uncertainty are presented. Monitoring, scenario analysis, and a proper presentation of the forecast are discussed in detail. Monitoring is the periodic updating of forecasts to account for unforeseen changes in demographic behavior of the population and in the context in which demographic behavior takes place. The scenario approach is a method for dealing with uncertainty to provide the user with alternative, internally consistent futures against which decisions can be tested and actions planned. Both scenarios and forecasts may include judgmental factors. Expert opinions and the individual's expectations may be considered in the exploration or prediction of the future. To substantially improve the demographic forecasting performance, research is needed in 5 domains both within national agencies and academic circles: cohort-component model (population projection model); methods for the analysis of demographic time series; use of information on attitudes, expectations and intentions; predictability of demographic processes; and forecasting with limited data. Language: English Keywords: METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | LITERATURE REVIEW | POPULATION FORECAST | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | COHORT ANALYSIS | RELIABILITY | MONITORING | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | NEEDS | Estimation Techniques | Measurement | Evaluation | Economic Factors Document Number: 100451 |
| 22. Title: Derivations of complex roots of a stable model for a special distribution of net maternity rates: an alternative method. Author: Mitra S Source: JANASAMKHYA. 1991 Jun;9(1-2):1-14. Abstract: "Several mathematical models representing the age distribution of net maternity rate p(x) have...tried in the past [to] generate estimates of the parameters of a stable population model....In an earlier paper, Mitra and Levin (1990) experimented with a generalized model....Among other things, that model generated a pair of nonlinear equations from which the intrinsic roots, real as well as complex, had to be solved. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative method of solving the same pair of equations which reveals another set of interesting features characteristic of this different approach." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | FERTILITY | NET REPRODUCTION RATE | AGE FACTORS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Measurements | Population Characteristics Document Number: 109553 |
| 23. Title: The measurement and definition of age at marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa. Author: Rwabushaija M Source: Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1991. x, 190 p. (Order No. 9125747) Publication order number DA9125747 Doctoral dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 1991. Abstract: This study concerns the measurement and definition of marriage in sub-Saharan Africa. 1 of its aims is to measure trends in the male and female ages at 1st marriage in recent decades using population census and sample survey data. Given the poor quality of African data, 6 age-at-marriage computational techniques are utilized in order to identify which ones would yield robust estimates that are free of biases due to age misreporting. The study also examines the World Fertility Survey marriage definitions for selected African countries and discusses how the definition of marriage affects the measurement and interpretation of statistics of some nuptiality and fertility characteristics between different cultural groups and also over time if the definitions have been changing. The results of these investigation show that although there are differences in estimates between the methods, they all show age at 1st marriage, especially for females, to be increasing in all countries included in the study. This finding is supported by levels and trends in other nuptiality variables that are known to affect marriage timing. A comparison between the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Survey proportions never married also shows the female age at marriage to have risen. Marriage was loosely defined in the World Fertility Surveys, as in the Demographic and Health Surveys, to include both formal and informal unions. As a result, a comparison between the World Fertility Survey and census data shows more ever married and fewer never married women in the former than the latter. Despite the loose definition, however, some countries definitions were more inclusive of all sexual unions than were others. Consequently,substantial differences are observed between the countries in the level of premarital fertility. However, there is reason to believe that premarital childbearing is increasing in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa because of increased female education, a prolonged adolescence, and the weakening of parental and kinship control systems, all of which are conducive to the formation of informal relationships. The study concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions for further research. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MARRIAGE AGE | MEASUREMENT | GHANA | COTE D'IVOIRE | DATA COLLECTION | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | AGE DISTRIBUTION | NEVER MARRIED | POLYGYNY | RURAL POPULATION | URBAN POPULATION | BIRTH RATE | MARITAL STATUS | INCIDENCE | PREMARITAL PREGNANCY | BIRTH INTERVALS | ABORTION | MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT | WORLD FERTILITY SURVEYS | WOMEN | MEN | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Research Methodology | Developing Countries | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Estimation Techniques | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Fertility Surveys Document Number: 073098 Notification |
| 24. Title: Estimation of birth rate and related measures in Sub-Saharan Africa. Author: Venkatacharya K; Teklu T Source: Legon, Ghana, University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies [RIPS], 1991 Feb. iii, 198 p. (RIPS Monograph Series No. 4) Abstract: Three methods for the indirect estimation of fertility in developing countries are assessed. The methods considered are Coale's model stable population method, reverse survival of the population under age 15, and the generalized stable population equation developed by Preston and Coale. The primary focus is on the estimation of birth rates in Africa, but consideration is also given in one chapter to estimating death rates. (ANNOTATION) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | FERTILITY | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | BIRTH RATE | THEORETICAL MODELS | Africa | Developing Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 234813 |
| 25. Title: [The concept of open stable population: an application to the study of changes in population structure] Le concept de population stable ouverte: application a l'etude des variations de la structure demographique. Author: Lachapelle R Source: CAHIERS QUEBECOIS DE DEMOGRAPHIE. 1990 Autumn;19(2):197-214. Abstract: "The open stable population model is an extension of the stable population model. It is based upon a new immigration index. The model is used to study the impact of demographic phenomena on the population's structure by age and place of birth. For a given increase in the rate of growth, a fertility increase has more impact on the rejuvenation of the age structure than an immigration increase. With an average of 1.75 children per woman, the minimum immigration level required to avoid a decrease in population would result in a percentage of foreign-born similar to the maximum observed in any developed country...." The geographical focus is on developed countries, particularly Canada. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) (EXCERPT) Language: French Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | CANADA | THEORETICAL MODELS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MIGRATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION | FERTILITY | POPULATION GROWTH | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | PLACE OF BIRTH | North America, Northern | Americas | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Age Factors | Population Characteristics Document Number: 233839 |
| 26. Title: Complex roots of Lotka's integral equation for a special model of net maternity rates. Author: Mitra S; Levin ML Source: JANASAMKHYA. 1990 Dec;8(2):115-32. Abstract: "An attempt to obtain the solutions of Lotka's integral equation has been made in this paper by assuming a Pearsonian Type III function for the age distribution of the net maternity rates. The shifting of the origin of the function from the traditional value of age zero to the most meaningful lower boundary of the reproductive interval gave rise to an analytical expression of the equation with interesting properties most of which have not yet been encountered in similar endeavors." (EXCERPT) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | PREGNANCY RATE | STATISTICAL STUDIES | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | MATERNAL AGE | REPRODUCTIVE AGE | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Studies | Estimation Techniques | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Reproduction Document Number: 239151 |
| 27. Title: [What do age-specific growth rates reveal?] Za kakvo "razkazvat" povazrastovite koefitsienti na prirast. Author: Botev N Source: NASELENIE. 1989;7(1):69-85. Abstract: "This paper summarizes a generalization of the stable population theory pioneered by S. H. Preston and A. J. Coale, and elaborates on a particular case of this generalization suggested by Horiuchi and Preston. Based on the properties of age-specific growth rates to reflect in an indirect manner past population dynamics, an attempt is made to shed light on some aspects of the population history of Bulgaria, which until now have been 'hidden' due to the lack, or the unreliability of the statistical data." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) (EXCERPT) Language: Bulgarian Keywords: BULGARIA | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | HISTORICAL REVIEW | POPULATION GROWTH | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Developing Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Europe | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 233176 |
| 28. Title: [Demography. Volume 1. Population dynamics] Demographie. Band 1. Bevolkerungsdynamik. Author: Dinkel RH Source: Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of, Franz Vahlen, 1989. x, 455 p. (Vahlens Handbucher der Wirtschaftswissenschaften) Abstract: This textbook on demography includes chapters on the following topics: population models without age structure, the stable population model, approaches to dynamic analysis, the effects of long-term variations in demographic parameters on population structure and dynamics, some extensions of the stable model, and the use of population models in situations where demographic data are lacking or incomplete. (ANNOTATION) Language: German Keywords: GLOBAL | DEMOGRAPHY | THEORETICAL MODELS | POPULATION THEORY | AGE DISTRIBUTION | STABLE POPULATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | TEACHING MATERIALS | THEORETICAL STUDIES | Social Sciences | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 230879 |
| 29. Title: The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy. Author: Lin F Source: CHINA POPULATION NEWSLETTER. 1989 Apr;6(2):11-2. Abstract: A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION DENSITY | POPULATION SIZE | BABY BOOM | PHILOSOPHICAL OVERVIEW | POPULATION PROJECTION | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Social Policy | Policy | Family Planning | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility | Economic Factors Document Number: 271827 |
| 30. Title: A two-sex quasi-stable population in the presence of immigration. Author: Nath DC; Kalita P Source: In: Population transition in India, vol. 1, edited by S.N. Singh, M.K. Premi, P.S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. Delhi, India, B.R. Publishing, 1989. :463-81. Abstract: This paper develops a 2-sex quasi-stable population model with the effect of migration under the conditions of changing fertility and mortality over time. The paper shows that the results are the same as those obtained by Biswas and Ebraheem for the 1-sex model. Later, it derives the computational techniques of the intrinsic growth rates and birth rates of males and females separately and show that a combination (weighted average) of the male and female rates gives rise to the common intrinsic growth rate and birth rate. (ANNOTATION) Language: English Keywords: STABLE POPULATION METHOD | POPULATION GROWTH | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | SEX FACTORS | BIRTH RATE | MIGRATION | FERTILITY | MORTALITY | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Theoretical Models | Population Characteristics | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 065439 |
 |
||
 |
Information & Knowledge for Optimal Health (INFO) Project 111 Market Place Suite 310, Baltimore, MD 21202 Phone: 410-659-6300 Fax: 410-659-6266 Security & Privacy Policy |  |