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1.
Title: Population movement and HIV / AIDS: the case of Ruili, Yunnan, China.
Author: du Guerny J; Hsu LN; Hong C
Source: Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], South East Asia HIV and Development Programme, 2003 Aug. iv, 19 p.
Abstract: The following are some key considerations for this paper: i) Instead of focusing on analyzing the traditional "high risk groups" (drug users, youth, sex workers, etc.) this paper examines movements of people and their possible implications on HIV prevention policies and programmes; ii) Identifying mobility patterns does not imply blaming mobile people for the HIV epidemic. Because population movement patterns are mostly determined by difference in levels of economic development between sending and receiving areas; and iii) The goal of this evaluation is to identify policy and programme instruments which can reduce development induced vulnerabilities and increase resilience. It does not propose alternatives to traditional preventative activities for high-risk groups. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
CHINA | MYANMAR | EVALUATION REPORT | MIGRANT WORKERS | SEX WORKERS | STABLE POPULATION | TRAVELERS | HIV PREVENTION | AIDS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | TURNAROUND MIGRATION | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Asia, Southeastern | Evaluation | Labor Force | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Sex Behavior | Behavior | Population Size | Demographic Factors | Population | Travel and Tourism | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Internal Migration | Migration
Document Number: 186426

Title: Methods for estimating adult mortality.
Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division
Source: New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2002 Jul 1. x, 112 p. (ESA/P/WP.175)
Abstract: The level of mortality in a society is a fundamental indicator of health and development. The ageing of populations in both developed and developing countries, with the associated increasing share of mortality that occurs in adulthood, has accentuated the need to obtain better estimates of mortality at adult ages. In developed countries, adult mortality can be measured using data from civil registration systems and population estimates derived from censuses or population registers. In most developing countries, however, the estimation of adult mortality is seriously constrained by the absence of reliable, continuous, and complete data registration systems. This manual brings together existing methods for adult mortality estimation in situations where reliable and complete data registration systems are not available. The manual explains the concepts behind each method, details the steps required for application, and discusses issues of analysis and interpretation. The methods discussed in this volume are indirect methods, and they do not provide the same degree of accuracy as direct methods, which use complete registration statistics. However, each of the methods presented involves a standard series of calculations that will, in the best of circumstances, produce useful estimates of adult mortality. Unlike methods based on reliable civil registration data, however, the accuracy of the estimates produced by the methods discussed herein cannot be taken for granted, but must be established in each application. This validation requires knowledge and judgement that go well beyond the mechanical application of the equations that underpin each method and require a good understanding of the assumptions on which each method is based. A key strategy, in this regard, is to derive estimates from all data available for each particular case, to compare them, and to use the comparisons to make judgements on the accuracy of the different data sources and the validity of the assumptions underlying the various methods. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
JAPAN | ZIMBABWE | LIFE TABLE METHOD | CENSUS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN | STABLE POPULATION | SURVIVORSHIP | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Analysis | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Length of Life | Mortality
Document Number: 273415

3.
Title: Is there a stabilizing selection around average fertility in modern human populations?
Author: Mueller U
Source: Population and Development Review. 2001 Sep;27(3):469-498.
Abstract: For our two predictions to make sense requires a measure of reproductive fitness other than completed family size (F1), the simplest such measure. For measuring long-term fitness effects, we can use either a deterministic measure-number of grandchildren (F2) or great-grandchildren (F3) or a stochastic measure-long-term lineage survival probabilities, as projected from present reproductive patterns within a family (Tuljapurkar 1990 Yoshimura and Clarke 1991, 1993 Mueller 1991). There is no universally accepted definition of fitness (Stearns 1992: 31-33), and none is suggested here. For the purpose of this article, we adopt a pragmatic stance, namely that long-term reproductive fitness is a positive function of both a deterministic and a stochastic measure. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | LITERATURE REVIEW | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | STABLE POPULATION | FITNESS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Population Size | Health
Document Number: 181694

4.
Title: [From stabilizing the low fertility to a stable population]
Author: Liu J; Lin F
Source: Renkou Yanjiu / Population Research. 2000 Jul;24(4):35-40.
Abstract: This paper defines the low fertility as a fertility zone with the upper limit being the replacement level and the lower limit being the policy level. Necessity of stabilizing the low fertility is discussed based on the stable population theory. Within the low fertility range, a 100 year long population projection for China as a whole and China's population development strategies are explored using the projection results. (author's)
Language: Chinese
Keywords:
CHINA | LITERATURE REVIEW | FERTILITY DECLINE | STABLE POPULATION | POPULATION THEORY | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Demography | Social Sciences
Document Number: 152538

Title: Population policy of Rajasthan.
Author: India. Rajasthan. Department of Family Welfare
Source: [Jaipur], India, Rajasthan Department of Family Welfare, 1999. x, 44 p.
Abstract: The estimated population of Rajasthan in 1996 was about 5 crores, which would grow to 8 crores even if it were to achieve replacement level of fertility by 2016. With limited natural resources at its disposal, Rajasthan cannot afford the continuation of its rapid population growth, since it is not difficult to visualize the quantum jump in the demand for food grains, water and other basic infrastructure to just sustain this level of human population. Thus there is a growing consensus in the State that the declaration in the rate of growth of population and its qualitative improvement are among the key determinants for sustainable development of the State. To develop a meaningful approach to achieve these objectives, efforts have been made to develop a policy document, a state specific effective population program. Accordingly, the State Government has taken the initiative to formulate a Population Policy for the State, to set its own demographic goals and to specify the strategies and interventions proposed to attain policy goals and objectives. It has been realized that investments in the population stabilization program will have high rates of return not only in the economic sector, but in social and environmental sectors also. In this document of ``Population Policy for Rajasthan'', efforts have been made to evolve a practical as well as ethically sound and culturally appropriate holistic approach, with particular emphasis on ending gender discrimination and ensuring popular support to meet the objectives of the Population Policy. The policy document focuses on formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Reproductive & Child Health Programme. It reflects the commitment of the Government towards the overall welfare of the people of Rajasthan. (excerpt)
Language: English
Keywords:
CHILD | CHILD HEALTH | FAMILY PLANNING | IMPLEMENTATION | INDIA | MATERNAL HEALTH | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION POLICY | PROGRAMS | REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH | SEX RATIO | SOCIAL DISCRIMINATION | STABLE POPULATION | SUMMARY REPORT | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Health | Organization and Administration | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Population Dynamics | Social Policy | Policy | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Social Problems | Population Size
Document Number: 171613

7.
Title: Introduction to the mathematics of demography. 3rd.
Author: Brown RL
Source: Winsted, Connecticut, ACTEX Publications, 1997. xii, 287 p.
Abstract: This undergraduate textbook provides an introduction to demography from a mathematical perspective, and includes a survey of the foundational mathematics required in much demographic work. "Examples are drawn from North American applications and studies. Each chapter includes an array of problems to be solved, and the extensive bibliography presents the reader with an opportunity for further study." There are chapters on data sources and errors, measures of mortality and fertility, the life table, constructions of life tables from census data, stationary population theory, stable population theory, population projections, and uses of census data. (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
CANADA | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | TEACHING MATERIALS | DEMOGRAPHY | DATA SOURCES | ERROR SOURCES | LIFE TABLES | MORTALITY | FERTILITY | STABLE POPULATION | STATIONARY POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | CENSUS | North America, Northern | Americas | Developed Countries | North America | Social Sciences | Data Collection | Research Methodology | Measurement | Life Table Method | Demographic Analysis | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Estimation Techniques | Population Statistics
Document Number: 256660

8.
Title: Environmental sustainability: eat better and kill less.
Author: Goodland R
Source: In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. New Delhi, India, Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI], 1997. :315-48.
Abstract: "Most environmental sustainability will be achieved to the extent the world achieves the transition to renewable energy and a stable population. Much has been written on these two fundamental transitions; this paper outlines one other fundamental need instead: the topic of human diet. This paper is addressed to all those who are, therefore, concerned with accelerating the transition to sustainability; its purpose is to sharpen one segment of the sustainability debate." (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | STABLE POPULATION | FOOD SUPPLY | DIET | NUTRITION | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Natural Resources | Environment | Health
Document Number: 253313

9.
Title: Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition.
Author: Strulik H
Source: JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS. 1997;10(3):285-98.
Abstract: The long-term effects of two interdependent relations between economic growth and population growth are discussed. The empirical work of Boserup (1981) was utilized, which focused on rural, sparsely populated economies with low income per capita. According to the formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance with the theory of demographic transition, the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. The approach originating from Cigno (1984) modified the economic model, which allowed the establishment of two different stable equilibria. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of low-income and high-income equilibrium was shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state took place. The instability of the Malthusian steady-state is also possible when a country develops along a path of economic growth which is compatible with the demographic transition. In this context, learning means the application of new techniques of agrarian production. In developed economies with a stable population the learning-or-doing decision lead to accumulation of human capital and the invention of new technologies and goods. The interdependence of income-determined population growth and learning-by-doing may serve as an explanation for the weak and partly controversial empirical support for an overall correlation between income and population growth. The result yielded a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth.
Language: English
Keywords:
RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION GROWTH | LOW INCOME POPULATION | ECONOMIC MODEL | TECHNOLOGY | PRODUCTION | STABLE POPULATION | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Macroeconomic Factors | Population Size
Document Number: 130174

10.
Title: [Sibling size in a stable population]
Author: Suzuki T
Source: Jinko Mondai Kenkyu / Journal of Population Problems. 1997;53(4):67-74.
Abstract: This document deals with two issues related to the expected value of the number of sisters with respect to the stable population of females. The first points out that the expected number of sisters is calculated using a special method. To devise a probability of the distribution of sisters that is based on the probability of the distribution of daughters, it is necessary to extract from the calculation the number of mothers in order to identify the number of sisters within the daughter population. This value is then compared to the value that results when the number of daughters is removed from the calculations. The second issue is to estimate the attainment value of the number of sisters with respect to young females whose number of sisters is yet to be determined. While the number of elder sisters is determined at birth, newborn infants do not have any younger sisters. The number of younger sisters may increase over time, but this increase stops once their mothers exceed reproductive age. The expected number of younger sisters with respect to the entire population is deduced by consolidating this process in a cross-sectoral manner. (excerpt)
Language: Japanese
Keywords:
SIBLINGS | FAMILY SIZE | DAUGHTERS | STABLE POPULATION | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | DATA ANALYSIS | RELIABILITY | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Measurement
Document Number: 138132

11.
Title: Experts on population issues show research for new millennium.
Author: Varma A
Source: [Unpublished] 1997 Sep 24 4 p.
Abstract: A media briefing organized by the Rockefeller Foundation in London highlighted the priorities for population stabilization, the impact of population growth on the planet and the resource-poor countries, and possible solutions in stabilizing population growth. Attended by 24 journalists from Japan, Europe and the US, and experts in the field of population, social development and economic growth, updates on population research conducted in the last 3 years were presented. Statistics presented by the Population Council showed that about 800 million adolescents would reach childbearing age by the year 2000, indicating a momentous increase in the population growth rate. The adverse effects of high population growth were noted to be the following: degradation of natural resources; low wages, poverty and low growth in the economy; lagging investment in human capital and infrastructure; low and unequal investment in children; compromised reproductive health and higher child mortality and morbidity. However, research has shown that providing higher education as well as better social and economic opportunities for women, addressing concerns of community, and promoting contraceptive usage can help stabilize population growth. Case presentations from the countries of Bangladesh and Ghana provide evidence of the effectiveness of the programs.
Language: English
Keywords:
UNITED KINGDOM | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | CONFERENCES AND CONGRESSES | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION CONTROL | STABLE POPULATION | POPULATION PRESSURE | United Kingdom | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Population Size | Carrying Capacity | Natural Resources | Environment
Document Number: 147416

12.
Title: Beyond simple exponential models of population growth.
Author: Schoen R; Kim YJ
Source: Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins Population Center, 1996. 15, [5] p. (Papers on Population WP 96-03)
Abstract: The constant exponential growth of the classical stable population describes just one of an infinite number of possible birth trajectories. Here the authors examine birth functions of the form exp [ht < gamma], which produce models with sub-, super-, and inverse exponential growth. Those "gamma-stable" populations display changing vital rates and a growth parameter (h) whose properties are quite unlike stable growth rate r. The results expand the tools available to demographers, and provide new ways to model populations experiencing positive environmental feedback, density inhibited growth, and the transition to stationarity. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
THEORETICAL MODELS | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION THEORY | DEMOGRAPHY | STABLE POPULATION | BIRTH RATE | REPRODUCTION | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Sciences | Population Size | Fertility Measurements | Fertility
Document Number: 113874

13.
Title: Stabilization, birth waves, and the surge in the elderly.
Author: Schoen R; Kim YJ
Source: MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES. 1996;6(1):35-53, 67.
Abstract: This study examines the transition of a population to stability following a shift to a new fixed set of vital rates. Specifically, the authors develop a simple discrete population model and use it to derive an explicit solution for the birth trajectory. "The new vital rates interact with the population's initial age composition and generate birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the ratio of ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable net maternity. A greater change in growth and a later stable net maternity pattern produce larger fluctuations in the number of births. Stabilization begins at the youngest ages and proceeds upward. Sixty years after the shift, the birth waves have largely disappeared and the proportion under age 15 approximates the stable level implied by the new rates. Those patterns are manifest in the stabilization of both observed and Coale-Demeny model stable populations." (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | STABLE POPULATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION | FERTILITY | POPULATION GROWTH | THEORETICAL MODELS | BIRTH RATE | AGE FACTORS | CHANGES | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Research Methodology | Fertility Measurements | Social Change
Document Number: 252196

14.
Title: Population growth under changed fertility schedule in stability conditions.
Author: Yadava KN; Yadava SN; Sarin D
Source: MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES. 1996;6(1):55-65, 67.
Abstract: "This paper aims to investigate some models for population projection under a gradual change in fertility schedule, and to evaluate integrals therein for their actual values....Some formulae for population projection have been derived under stability conditions. The proposed formulae are also illustrated with some numerical values of the parameters involved therein. The merits and shortcomings are also discussed." (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION GROWTH | FERTILITY | STABLE POPULATION | THEORETICAL MODELS | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size
Document Number: 252197

15.
Title: [The basics of mathematical demography] Elements de demographie mathematique.
Author: Pressat R
Source: Paris, France, Association Internationale des Demographes de Langue Francaise [AIDELF], 1995. xi, 279 p.
Abstract: This is a textbook intended to introduce French-speaking students to the concepts of mathematical demography. Topics covered include life tables, nuptiality tables, fertility tables, interference between phenomena, population models, stable populations, population replacement, longitudinal analysis, and birth intervals. (ANNOTATION)
Language: French
Keywords:
GLOBAL | TEACHING MATERIALS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHY | LIFE TABLES | NUPTIALITY | FERTILITY | STABLE POPULATION | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | BIRTH INTERVALS | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Social Sciences | Life Table Method | Demographic Analysis | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Fertility Measurements
Document Number: 251028

16.
Title: Financing the future: meeting the demand for family planning. 1994 report on progress towards world population stabilization.
Author: Population Action International
Source: Washington, D.C., Population Action International, 1994. [2] p.
Abstract: It is extremely important that financial resources be mobilized to meet the growing demand for family planning in developing countries, for action taken now by the world community to expand reproductive choices for men and women will determine the eventual size of world population at stabilization and the quality of life for future generations. The number of people who desire to use contraception will almost double over the next 20 years. At the same time, the quality and range of existing services in many countries sorely need to be improved. However, despite the need for increased spending, many developing countries spend rather little on family planning, while developed countries overall spend less than 1.5% of development aid upon population assistance. The total fertility rate as well as current annual per capita family planning expenditures disaggregated into consumer, donor, World Bank, and government sources are listed for countries in East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, North Africa and West Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Also for those countries and in chart format, data are presented on the percentage of couples using contraception, total annual expenditures, and the number of contraceptive users now and projected for 2000 and 2015. Projected data are also given for 2000 and 2015 on the number of users and total expenditures in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. A table also lists the current and recommended levels of donor contributions for population assistance.
Language: English
Keywords:
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | FUNDS | EXPENDITURES | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | FOREIGN AID | NEEDS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | STABLE POPULATION | Financial Activities | Economic Factors | Family Planning | Programs | Organization and Administration | Contraception | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size
Document Number: 131584

17.
Title: [Population dynamics. Stable, semi-stable, and quasi-stable populations] La dynamique des populations. Populations stables, semi-stables et quasi-stables.
Author: Bourgeois-Pichat J
Source: Paris, France, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED], 1994. x, 296 p. (INED Travaux et Documents Cahier No. 133)
Abstract: This book is the product of 11 years of courses taught by the late Jean Bourgeois-Pichat at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris from 1976 to 1987. It includes chapters on statistical and mathematical techniques, life tables, stable populations, semi-stable populations, and quasi-stable populations. Some practical applications of the semi-stable population concept to data for Mexico and France are included. (ANNOTATION)
Language: French
Keywords:
GLOBAL | FRANCE | MEXICO | TEACHING MATERIALS | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | STABLE POPULATION | LIFE TABLES | SOUTH AMERICA, CENTRAL | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | North America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Life Table Method | Demographic Analysis | Research Methodology | South America
Document Number: 240164

18.
Title: Beyond stable theory: intercohort changes in USSR, U.S.A., and Europe.
Author: Keyfitz N
Source: In: Demographic trends and patterns in the Soviet Union before 1991, edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, and Andrei Volkov. New York, New York/London, England, Routledge, 1994. :461-75.
Abstract: Explication and application of the theory of intercohort changes was made for the USSR, the US, Europe, developing countries, middle developing countries, and the world. The absolute number of persons in successive cohorts was not relevant. Importance was attached to the changes in the size of the cohort every 5 years between 1925 and 2000. A comparison of these estimates within a cohort verified the consistency of censuses and mortality changes. Errors of over 5% were considered indicative of unusual fluctuations in death rates or errors in the data. Stable population theory was limited in capturing the changing populations of modern times. After World War II, mortality declined sharply. For example, in 1950 in the USSR there were an estimated 18,823,000 children aged 0-4 years; by 1955 this cohort would have numbered 18,552,000; and by 1960, 18,511,000. The differences over time reflected mortality influences and some migration influences and were irregular. Cohort data were arranged in table form. When cohorts aged 0-4 years in 1950 were subtracted from cohorts aged 0-4 years in 1955, the intercohort differences were obtained. A table of the differences would show relative constancy in columns of specific years but variation between columns, which reflected differences over time. In the column for 1940, the values were negative, indicating lower fertility and greater infant mortality in all cohorts of 1940-45 compared to cohorts of 1935-40. After a table was constructed which showed the mean 5-year cohort increases, an age time table was reconstructed and compared to the original table. The comparison of intercohort increases showed rising cohort sizes in the USSR and Europe and declines in the US during the 1930s. The cohort in 1940-45 for the USSR and Europe was small, but higher in the US. All 3 countries had a baby boom after the war. The population change was readily apparent. Such comparisons recognized large cohort sizes and the potential for economic and political dislocations.
Language: English
Keywords:
USSR | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | EUROPE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | MULTIREGIONAL ANALYSIS | COHORT ANALYSIS | STABLE POPULATION | Developing Countries | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Research Methodology | Studies | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population
Document Number: 102947

19.
Title: Demographic regularities and irregularities: the population age structure.
Author: Pirozhkov S; Safarova G
Source: In: Demographic trends and patterns in the Soviet Union before 1991, edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, and Andrei Volkov. New York, New York/London, England, Routledge, 1994. :441-60.
Abstract: The stable population method is used to estimate population losses during World War II in the former Soviet Union. An analysis of shifts in age and sex distributions from 1896 to 1989 is presented. The authors conclude that "an important characteristic of change in the USSR population age distribution consisted in significant deformations of separate age cohorts due to crisis phenomena. The approximate estimates of population losses during the 1930s and 1940s described in this chapter...include indirect losses expressed in decreases in the number of births of subsequent generations." (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
USSR | POPULATION DYNAMICS | STABLE POPULATION | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | WAR | POLITICAL FACTORS | AGE DISTRIBUTION | SEX DISTRIBUTION | HISTORICAL REVIEW | COHORT ANALYSIS | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | EXCESS MORTALITY | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | FERTILITY DECLINE | GENERATIONS | BIRTH RATE | CHANGES | Developing Countries | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Size | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors | Research Methodology | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Fertility Measurements | Social Change
Document Number: 240787

20.
Title: Vietnam's family planning programme. Population stabilization by the year 2045?
Source: FEEDBACK. 1993 Jul-Dec;19(3):1-2.
Abstract: Four documents written in 1993 have been instrumental in shaping and implementing national population policy in Vietnam. Professor Mai Ky, a Minister in the Vietnamese government and the Chairman of the National Committee for Population and Family Planning, explains some new features of the population and family planning program in the country. He describes a multi-tiered system of policies, strategies, programs, and projects. Population policies endorse the establishment of a small-family norm and replacement fertility by the year 2015. Strategies to accomplish policy goals have been developed up to the year 2000, but not yet for 2001-2015. At the program level, activities are in place nationwide to strengthen the management capability of the family planning program, improve the quality of service delivery, diversify the selection of available contraceptive methods, and target information, education, and communication to populations in need. Individual projects are being implemented by governmental and nongovernmental organizations in the field of family planning. Population and family planning are therefore of top national priority in both rhetoric and practice. Ky closes by stressing the need to manage limited program resources and describes the four stages of organizational structure since 1963.
Language: English
Keywords:
VIETNAM | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | POPULATION POLICY | STABLE POPULATION | ORGANIZATIONS | POPULATION CONTROL | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Family Planning | Programs | Organization and Administration | Social Policy | Policy | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population
Document Number: 093623

21.
Title: On the intrinsic force of convergence to stability.
Author: Kim YJ; Schoen R
Source: MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES. 1993;4(2):89-102, 149.
Abstract: "Observed populations differ greatly in the speed with which they approach the stable form, but what determines rates of convergence is not fully understood....Here we examine the trajectory to stability, derive a mathematical expression for the force of convergence, and provide an approximate relationship in terms of the mean and variance of the stable net maternity function." Trajectories for Japan, Togo, and the United States are used as illustrations. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)
Language: English
Keywords:
GLOBAL | JAPAN | TOGO | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | STABLE POPULATION | FERTILITY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Developing Countries | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | North America | Americas | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Population Size | Demographic Factors | Population
Document Number: 239202

22.
Title: Demographic conditions responsible for population aging as reflected in five aging measures.
Author: Liao TF
Source: [Unpublished] 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, Ohio, April 1-3, 1993. [2], 18, [4] p.
Abstract: The rate of change in aging measures is studied: the proportion aged under 15, proportion aged 65 and over, the aged/child ratio, the median age, and the mean age of a population as a function of the major demographic processes of fertility, mortality, and migration. An expression is developed for the rate of change in the proportion-based measures of aging as a function of fertility, mortality, and migration, and then the rate of change in these measures and in the mean age is applied to various stable populations, to stable populations disequilibrated by migration, and to the population of Japan, 1988-1989. The results demonstrate that the aging measures of the proportion aged under 15, the proportion aged 65 and over, the aged-child ratio, the median age, and the mean age of a population may not give consistent rate of change estimates and have differential sensitivity. The magnitude and the pattern of inconsistency depend on the levels of fertility and mortality of the population, thereby, on its age profile and on the pattern of age-specific migration. Using this method and that for studying mean age as a function of the demographic processes proposed by Preston (1989), comparative results were obtained from analyzing how births and deaths contribute to maintaining the equilibrium of various stable populations, from studying the rate of change in the 5 aging measures when the age stability is disequilibrated by net migration of 1 or 2 age groups, and from examining the rate of change in the measures for the population of Japan between 1988 and 1989. This analytic method may be applied to studying the rate of change in other demographic rates and proportions as a function of demographic processes such as fertility, mortality, and migration, since most of the measures reflect the age structure of a population, and the rate of change in these measures tells how fast (or slowly) a certain age stratum in the population gains (or loses) members relative to another age stratum (or to the overall population).
Language: English
Keywords:
JAPAN | CONFERENCES AND CONGRESSES | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY | MORTALITY | MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | STABLE POPULATION | RELIABILITY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Population Dynamics | Population | Population Size | Measurement | Research Methodology
Document Number: 082906

23.
Title: 100 million refugees. The world stabilizes through population stability.
Author: Sakaiya T
Source: INTEGRATION. 1993 Sep;(37):2-9.
Abstract: Global change has come about due to shifts in the business cycle, a new undeveloped paradigm to replace the Cold War, and a stabilization of expansion and development of modern industrial society. Japan has been transfixed with its own internal domestic affairs, but will feel the consequences of the Industrial Age nearing its end. Industrialization had relied on unlimited resources from the natural environment and the belief that a free-market economy would automatically lead to orderliness and a state of economic equilibrium. Population control has been an issue that has slid over the years as a priority status. In 1800, the population in developed countries was 4 times the population in developing countries; the reverse is becoming true. Mass migration was an unusual phenomena and not the problem it is today. There is a gap between population and productive capacity. Developed countries believed in humanitarian aid for refugees and impoverished peoples, but the numbers were unanticipated. There is no shame for war or civil unrest to drive boat people and hugh numbers to another country. The notion of nation state has changed. The boat people from Cuba were a beginning example of how governments were unconcerned about the loss of population. Afghanistan in 1979 was another example of refugees fleeing civil war. Iraq bombed the Kurds until there was no choice but to leave. Turkey was required to use troops to drive the Kurds back into Iraq. To increase aid indefinitely, or to send out more refugees than it takes in, or to use military forces to kill the invading refugees are not acceptable. An international framework with consensus from developed and developing countries is needed for dealing with mass migrations. Conventions adopted would have to be recognized as in each countries self-interest; disregard of the regulations would have to reflect significant disadvantages to a nation. Several issues are discussed as key in such a global framework: assuring productivity for all by absorbing some refugees, and developing new training programs for the private sector at home, and assuring development aid (technology, capital, markets). A self perpetuating cycle of growth and expansion must be set in motion. Infrastructure development must be replaced with stable employment in the home country.
Language: English
Keywords:
JAPAN | GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | CRITIQUE | REFUGEES | EMPLOYMENT | POPULATION GROWTH | PRODUCTIVITY | STABLE POPULATION | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Migrants | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Economic Development | Population Size
Document Number: 090187

24.
Title: Cyclically stable populations.
Author: Schoen R; Kim YJ
Source: [Unpublished] 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, Ohio, April 1-3, 1993. 23, [3] p.
Abstract: The cyclically stable population relaxes the stable population assumption of fixed vital rates and replaces it with the assumption of a recurring sequence of schedules of vital rates. From any point (or stage) in one cycle of the sequence to the same stage in the next cycle, the cyclically stable population grows at a constant rate (lambda). While the age composition of the cyclically stable population is different at different stages of the same cycle, it always has the same age composition at the same stage of every cycle. The essential dynamics of the cyclically stable model are captured by its birth projection matrix (BPM). The dominant eigenvalue of the BPM is growth rate lambda, and the right eigenvector associated with lambda gives the within-cycle birth sequence. An important special case occurs when lambda = 1, and a cyclically stationary population arises. Such populations challenge simplistic ideas about "Zero Population Growth". A population projection based on the sets of rates observed in the US, 1970-90, shows a cyclically stationary population arising in less than 100 years. While it experiences no longterm growth, that cyclically stationary population exhibits fluctuations in total size and considerable variability in age structure. (author's)
Language: English
Keywords:
THEORETICAL STUDIES | STABLE POPULATION | THEORETICAL MODELS | AGE DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION SIZE | STATIONARY POPULATION | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics
Document Number: 083388

25.
Title: [A study of the characteristics of a population, with reference to a stable model with constant nuptiality] Studio delle caratteristiche di una popolazione, con riferimento ad un modello stabile in regime di nuzialita costante.
Author: Sonnino E
Source: In: Per una storia della popolazione italiana: problemi de metodo, by D. Argelli et al. Bologna, Italy, Universita degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Paolo Fortunati, 1993. :97-116.
Abstract: A new approach to the theory of stable populations is presented that depends on marriage data. The approach is illustrated using statistics for Breschi in Tuscany, Italy, for the period 1820-1899. The author illustrates how this approach can be used to improve estimates of population trends when data on births and deaths are incomplete. (ANNOTATION)
Language: Italian
Keywords:
ITALY | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY | STABLE POPULATION METHOD | STABLE POPULATION | MARRIAGE | NUPTIALITY | Europe, Southern | Europe | Developed Countries | Demography | Social Sciences | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population
Document Number: 240952

26.
Title: From demographic models to public policy.
Author: Bouvier LF
Source: In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992;:247-56.
Abstract: The author argues that demographic models, especially the stable model, are relevant to the real world and that demographic information gathered from these models is necessary in making social policy. Allowing for immigration, the open stable model is particularly useful for more developed countries; this model suggests the need for below-replacement fertility to sustain a stable population in the face of immigration. While an ongoing relationship exists between research and policy, demographers should, nonetheless, help policymakers develop policy. Dramatic shifts in demographic behavior also point to the growing need for sociologists to be involved in the process.
Language: English
Keywords:
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | THEORETICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | STABLE POPULATION | POLICYMAKERS | SOCIAL POLICY | DEMOGRAPHERS | POLITICAL FACTORS | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHY | North America | Americas | Research Methodology | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Policy | Social Sciences
Document Number: 077688

27.
Title: [A dynamic model for populations reproduced by first marriage].
Author: Inaba H
Source: JINKO MONDAI KENKYU/JOURNAL OF POPULATION PROBLEMS. 1992 Jan;47(4):15-34.
Abstract: Using data for Japan, the author analyzes "the effect of nuptiality and of marital fertility [on population trends and constructs] a population model in which childbearing occurs only within first marriage....First, we can prove that...we can construct a stable population theory based on nuptiality and marital fertility....Next..., we investigate the effect of [the age shift in first marriage patterns on total fertility rates], since delay of marriage has been thought to be one of [the] major causes for long-term fertility decline in Japan. We conclude that although [the age shift in first marriage patterns] could decrease Japanese fertility, its effect seems to be insufficient to induce such rapid fertility decline as is observed recently in Japan." (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
Language: Japanese
Keywords:
JAPAN | POPULATION THEORY | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | STABLE POPULATION | NUPTIALITY | MARITAL STATUS | MARITAL FERTILITY | AGE FACTORS | MARRIAGE AGE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Demography | Social Sciences | Research Methodology | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Characteristics | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Changes
Document Number: 236037

28.
Title: Liaoning: population success story.
Author: Jing W; Ma X
Source: CHINA POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Feb;9(1):16-7.
Abstract: The 1990 national census revealed that the population growth of Liaoning Province in China had been under control since the 1970s with a birth rate of 16.30/1000, a mortality rate of 6.59/1000, and a low rate of natural increase: 9.71/1000 in 1990. The total fertility rate (TFR) of women in 1989 was 1.50, much lower than the national average of 2.25. TFR has remained under the replacement level of 2.1 since 1980, greatly reducing the effect of the birth peaks in the 1950s and 1960s. Liaoning Province is situated in northeast China with a population of 39 million, 3.5% of the national total. Population density is 270 persons/sq km, which is 2.3 times the national average of 118 persons/sq km. The urban population comprises 51% of the total. A health survey conducted a Shenhe District of Shenyang City, the capital of the province, on children born between 1980 and 1989 showed that among 42,598 babies born in the 1st 5 years the disabled or those with birth defects made up 5.47/1000, however, among 36,993 babies born in the next 5 years these disorders accounted for only 1.70/1000. A course in population science has been offered in more than 80% of middle schools in Liaoning with the hope of influencing the reproductive behavior of the next generation. The Family Planning Association of Liaoning Province was established in 1983. More than 1600 branch family planning associations have been organized in the province with a membership of over 2 million. In core households in villages women in reproductive age are organized for self-education and self-management for a better implementation of family planning.
Language: English
Keywords:
CHINA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | STABLE POPULATION | CHILD HEALTH SERVICES | FAMILY PLANNING EDUCATION | SECONDARY SCHOOLS | FAMILY PLANNING INFORMATION CENTERS | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Size | Maternal-Child Health Services | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Education | Schools | Information Centers | Communication
Document Number: 075820

29.
Title: [Application of a stable population model] Aplikace modelu stabilni populace.
Author: Kolorosova J
Source: DEMOGRAFIE. 1992;34(2):106-17.
Abstract: The author uses fertility and mortality data for Czechoslovakia to assess the usefulness of a stable population model. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) (ANNOTATION)
Language: Czech
Keywords:
CZECHOSLOVAKIA | STABLE POPULATION | THEORETICAL MODELS | Developing Countries | Europe, Central | Europe | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology
Document Number: 236670

30.
Title: Life and death: U.S. population policy.
Author: Mathews J
Source: WASHINGTON POST. 1992 Feb 16;:C7.
Abstract: Before George Bush became Ronald Reagan's vice president, he was a strong public advocate for international family planning. Today his hypocritical and cowardly intransigence on world population growth is keeping the US from offering the resources that could determine the life and death of millions of women and children. It is clear from the available research that children born less than 2 years after their older siblings are almost twice as likely to die. Contraceptives, provided through family planning services, could help couples space their births in order to avoid this problem. As much as 1/5 of the deaths could be avoided if spacing was properly used. The unmet demand for family planning world wide is conservatively estimated at 120 million women or couples. It is estimated that this number could range as high as 300 million. The official population projections are calculated based on the assumption that fertility will eventually reach the replacement level of 2.1 and then remain constant. The sooner replacement level is reached, the sooner population stabilization will occur and the lower that number will be. Current UN projections estimate a stabilized population of 11.5 billion by 2150. However if the fertility level is assumed to be just 5% higher the stabilized population for the same year will be 20.8 billion. If it is 5% lower it would be 5.6 billion. Since 1984 the US has withheld funds from the principle international family planning services, the UN Population Fund and other private agencies. The reason for the former being that no US money should go to China's forced programs, and the latter because no money should go to support abortion services or referrals. It is over looked that the lack of contraceptives will lead to more unwanted pregnancies which will lead t more abortions and more infant/maternal mortality. It is estimated that by 2000 a comprehensive international family planning program would cost US$8 billion (in 1990 dollars), US$3.5 billion of which would be international assistance from the developed nations. This sum is less than 5% of all international development assistance from developed nations, a mere pittance.
Language: English
Keywords:
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS | FAMILY PLANNING | NEEDS | STABLE POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | OPPOSITION TO FAMILY PLANNING | FUNDS | UNFPA | PREGNANCY, UNWANTED | MATERNAL MORTALITY | INFANT MORTALITY | CRITIQUE | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Economic Factors | Population Size | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Attitudes | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Financial Activities | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Mortality
Document Number: 071181


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