1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Three fertility compromises and two transitions. Author: Caldwell JC Source: Population Research and Policy Review. 2008 Aug;27(4):427-446. Abstract: Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or "compromises" are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. Language: English Keywords: NEW ZEALAND | AUSTRALIA | UNITED KINGDOM | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION THEORY | Developed Countries | Oceania | Europe, Western | Europe | North America | Americas | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science Document Number: 327927 |
2.  Peer Reviewed Title: Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models. Author: Caswell H Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Mar;18(3):59-116. Abstract: Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models), feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g., dependency ratios), age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MASSACHUSETTS | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | ENVIRONMENT | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | AGE FACTORS | TIME FACTORS | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developed Countries | United States of America | North America | Americas | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Length of Life | Mortality Document Number: 325250 |
| 3. Title: Fertility and fertility control in pre-revolutionary China. Author: Wolf AP; Engelen T Source: Journal of Interdisciplinary History. 2008 Winter;38(3):345-375. Abstract: The argument of Malthus' First Essay on Population is largely developed on the basis of a comparison between three countries-Britain, the United States, and China. England is presented as an example of an "old state" in which population growth has been considerable in the past but is slow at present. The reason is that "a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventative check, and the actual distress of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check." This observation holds for all old states because they lack the resources necessary to support further growth. Malthus offers the United States as an example of a new state in a "healthy country . . . with plenty of food and room" and institutions that made good land affordable and agriculture a good investment. The result was that, as in new colonies generally, the population grew "with astonishing rapidity." Malthus underlines the point by asking why an equal number of people did not "produce an equal increase in the same time in Great Britain." His answer is, "The great and obvious cause . . . is the want of food and room, or in other words, misery." China was known to Malthus as "one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most industrious, and most populous countries in the world," but Smith characterized it as a country in which "the poverty of the lowest ranks of people . . . far surpasses that of the most beggarly nations in Europe." Quesnay summed up the prevailing view: "In spite of . . . the abundance that reigns, there are few countries that have so much poverty among the humbler classes. However great the empire may be, it is too crowded for the multitude that inhabit it." (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | UNITED KINGDOM | LITERATURE REVIEW | FERTILITY | POPULATION CONTROL | MALTHUSIANISM | POPULATION THEORY | POVERTY | FERTILITY RATE | MARITAL FERTILITY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | United Kingdom | Europe, Western | Europe | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 325519 |
| 4. Title: Population size, concentration, and civil war. A geographically disaggregated analysis. Author: Hegre H; Raleigh C Source: Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2007 Jun. 36 p. (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4243) Abstract: Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset - ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset) - which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, CENTRAL | SUMMARY REPORT | POPULATION THEORY | WAR | POPULATION SIZE | POPULATION GROWTH | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Political Factors | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 318653 |
| 5. Title: Malthus and three approaches to solving the population problem. Author: Rutherford D Source: Population-E. 2007;62(2):213-238. Abstract: The terms of Malthus' population principle are clear: there is an intrinsic divergence between population growth and the subsistence needed to sustain it. But difficulties arise when we look at the solutions proposed by Malthus in his writings, since certain essential concepts are used in complex ways. In this article, Donald Rutherford contributes to the debate by analysing the different concepts of human behaviour and of subsistence that appear throughout Malthus' works. He examines in turn the various solutions to the population problem envisaged by Malthus, and finds each one wanting, before concluding that Malthus appears to advocate a diversified and balanced economy. But Malthus is wary of overspecialization in industry and commerce, and argues for equilibrium between the different sectors and different economic activities, thereby rejecting the solution that was to prevail in the following centuries. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | LITERATURE REVIEW | MALTHUSIANISM | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION THEORY | FOOD SECURITY | AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT | BEHAVIOR | ECONOMIC FACTORS | REPRODUCTION | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment | Rural Development Document Number: 322309 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: The western fertility decline: Reflections from a chronological perspective. Author: Caldwell JC Source: Journal of Population Research. 2006 Nov;23(2):225-242. Abstract: The study of recent fertility trends in the West has been dominated by examinations of Europe. A better perspective on twentieth-century fertility movements can be gained by giving an equal emphasis to trends in the 'Offshoots' (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). This paper focuses on the periods of rapid fertility decline and to a greater extent on the intervening periods of nearequilibrium. It is suggested that the 'late twentieth century compromise' is more stable than is suggested by reports on its internal strains, and that only massive government intervention could raise fertility. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | LITERATURE REVIEW | BABY BOOM | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION THEORY | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Population Decrease | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 324029 |
| 7. Title: Looking into the Malthusian abyss [letter] Author: King M; Wang EY Source: Lancet. 2006 Mar 4;367(9512):730. Abstract: John Cleland and Steven Sinding are to be congratulated on becoming neo-Malthusian, but they don't go far enough. The conventional wisdom assumes that, as development takes place, birth rates will fall to match death rates, so that populations will eventually stabilise. Unfortunately, the conventional wisdom takes no account of time, and forgets that, while this is supposed to be happening, rapidly growing populations may be exceeding the carrying capacity of their ecosystems, they may have no new land to go to, and they may be failing to develop adequate economic links with the rest of the world. The end result of all this is the direst poverty, starvation, and violence. Malthus did not have a name for this predicament, but Liebenstein did: demographic entrapment. This has a definitive stage when starvation, violence, or both have actually broken out, and a warning stage when, because populations are increasing rapidly, these can be confidently predicted. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: RWANDA | ETHIOPIA | POPULATION THEORY | MALTHUSIANISM | POPULATION PRESSURE | Africa, Central | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Carrying Capacity | Natural Resources | Environment Document Number: 299361 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: Vulnerabilities and risks in population and environment studies. Author: Marandola E Jr; Hogan DJ Source: Population and Environment. 2006 Nov;28(2):83-112. Abstract: In the study of risks, different sciences use the same category in different ways, each related to its own ontological assumptions. But many of these fields communicate very little with one another. This article seeks to approximate two of these areas of study that have shown similar concerns and that can mutually strengthen one another, namely, geography and demography. Geography was one of the first disciplines to include risk in its environmental dimension and has had broad experience in simultaneously focusing on social and natural dynamics. Demography, on the other hand, faces greater difficulties because only recently has it incorporated the environmental dimension into its scientific scope. Both have brought the concept of vulnerability into their conceptual framework as complementary to that of risk. Geographers understand vulnerability as a more symbiotic form of the relationship between society and nature, whereas demographers give it a strong socioeconomic component. In this regard, theconceptual discussion on risks and vulnerabilities, in its attempt at approximating these two fields, is a way of conceptually advancing and strengthening the different approaches to empirical work, especially in population-environment studies which is the common ground for the dialogue between the two disciplines. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHERS | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | DEMOGRAPHY | ENVIRONMENT | NATURAL DISASTERS | RISK ASSESSMENT | STUDY DESIGN | POPULATION THEORY | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Geography | Evaluation | Research Methodology | Economic Factors Document Number: 315987 |
| 9. Peer Reviewed Title: An empirical test of a neo-malthusian theory of fertility change. Author: Neumayer E Source: Population and Environment. 2006 Mar;27(4):327-336. Abstract: Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country's carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION | FERTILITY | CHANGES | MALTHUSIANISM | POPULATION THEORY | MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT | FOOD SUPPLY | MIGRATION | ECONOMIC FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Marriage | Nuptiality | Natural Resources | Environment Document Number: 309618 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: Five period measures of longevity. Author: Bongaarts J Source: Demographic Research. 2005 Nov 22;13(21):547-558. Abstract: This study provides a summary of recently proposed alternatives period measures of "longevity" and assesses whether empirical differences between these measures are consistent with predictions from analytic studies. Particular attention is given to the tempo effect. Three of the five period measures are virtually equal to one another in a simulated population in which mortality follows a Gompertz model with a constant rate of improvement. Similar results are observed among females in Denmark, England and Wales and Sweden in the last quarter century. However, these three measures differ substantially from the conventional period life expectancy when mortality changes over time. These findings are consistent with theoretical analysis by Bongaarts and Feeney (2002, 2003, 2005) which demonstrated that this deviation is caused by a tempo effect whose size varies with the rate of change in mortality. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DENMARK | UNITED KINGDOM | WALES | SWEDEN | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | LIFE EXPECTANCY | MORTALITY | MEASUREMENT | POPULATION THEORY | Developed Countries | Europe, Northern | Europe | United Kingdom | Europe, Western | Studies | Research Methodology | Length of Life | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Demography | Social Sciences Document Number: 292621 |
| 11. Title: The probability of maternal orphanhood under a generalized AIDS epidemic. Draft. Author: Jones JH Source: [Unpublished] 2005. Presented at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, March 31 - April 2, 2005. 35 p. Abstract: The generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic is devastating African families. Understanding how epidemiological patterns are translated into aggregate demographic outcomes is an important task for addressing this crisis of care. Using methods from stable population theory and AIDS-decremented model life tables for Africa, I analyze the effect of different mortality and fertility schedules on the probability of a child losing her mother. In high mortality environments, the probability that a girl will die before reaching some age a is non-negligible. I develop a method to estimate the probability of orphanhood conditional on surviving to a based on the analysis of first passage times of a Markov chain. Mortality decrements in the characteristic AIDS shape have a large impact on the probability of maternal orphanhood. Fertility (both overall level and parity-specific subfertility), in contrast, has a small effect on orphanhood probability. Despite the severe limitations of a one-sex model using stable population identities, this analysis provides important qualitative insights into the demographic processes that link HIV disease and aggregate demographic outcomes. I suggest possibilities for future work in which the assumptions of the present analysis are relaxed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | LIFE TABLE METHOD | ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | MOTHERS | AIDS | EPIDEMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | POPULATION THEORY | MORTALITY | FERTILITY | PROBABILITY | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Analysis | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Parents | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Statistical Studies | Studies Document Number: 319790 |
| 12. Title: The development of a migratory disposition: explaining a new emigration. [Desarrollo de una nueva disposición migratoria: explicación de un nuevo tipo de emigración] Author: Kalir B Source: International Migration. 2005;43(4):167-196. Abstract: Since the late 1990s, migration from Ecuador has diversified with migrants now targeting a range of new destinations. By highlighting the recent immigration of non-Jewish undocumented migrants from Ecuador to Israel, this article looks to discern not only a new trajectory but primarily a new type of migrant. Empirical findings point in the direction of an increased number of migrants who operate their migration largely from outside the realm of transnational networks. These migrants have no established connection in their destination and they thus also base their decision to migrate there upon very little information, which is usually obtained from an acquaintance who had been there. It appears that these migrants make their decision to migrate in an individual and hasty manner. Often they do not deliberate their migration plans with their close family and household. Nonetheless, once they have successfully operated their migration independently, they then regularly serve as pioneers who encourage and facilitate the migration of their relatives and friends. In an attempt to provide a sociological explanation to the motivational structure and the more individualist migration pattern of this new type of migrant, this article proposes the conceptualization of the migratory option as a disposition, inculcated mainly in large segments of the Ecuadorian low-middle class. A migratory disposition is being formulated as people try to make sense of migration-related transformations in both the physical and the social context in which they are embedded. These transformations impinge on people's economic and social perceptions of migration, encouraging them to credibly view the possibility to operate migration in an independent fashion. Concurrently, potential migrants increasingly consider transnational networks as structures characterized by high levels of connectivity and receptivity toward compatriots in migration destination. Potential migrants thus become audacious in their willingness to migrate alone and connect to the network once in destination. Ethnographic data demonstrate that in most cases this strategy of migrants has been proven effective. Focusing on this new type of migration can help explain the changing role of transnational networks in the decision-making process of potential migrants. It might also clarify the limited effect that restrictive migration policies, directed to curb the extension of established transnational networks, have had on the continuation of migration. (author's) Spanish Abstract: Desde fines de la década del 90, la migración desde Ecuador se ha diversificado, dado que la población migrante se dirige actualmente a una serie de nuevos destinos. Al destacar la reciente migración de grupos indocumentados de origen no judío de Ecuador a Israel, este artículo pretende distinguir no sólo una nueva trayectoria sino, fundamentalmente, un nuevo tipo de migrantes. Los resultados empíricos obtenidos sugieren que, en gran medida, un mayor número de migrantes tramita su migración por fuera de las redes transnacionales. Estos migrantes carecen de una conexión establecida en su destino y, por consiguiente, basan su decisión de migrar en escasísima información, habitualmente proporcionada por conocidos que han estado en el lugar. Aparentemente estos inmigrantes toman la decisión de migrar de modo individual y apresurado. A menudo, no analizan sus planes migratorios con su parientes cercanos ni con su familia conviviente. No obstante, una vez que han tramitado satisfactoriamente su migración en forma independiente, suelen operar como pioneros que alientan y facilitan la migración de sus familiares y amigos. En un intento de ofrecer una explicación sociológica de la estructura motivacional y del patrón de migración más individualista de ete nuevo tipo de migrantes, este artículo propone la conceptualización de la opción migratoria como una disposición, inculcada sobre todo en amplios segmentos de la clase media-baja ecuatoriana. Se va formulando una disposición migratoria mientras las personas intentan dar un sentido a las transformaciones derivadas de la migración en los contextos físico y social en que están inmersas. Dichas transformaciones inciden en las percepciones económicas y sociales de la gente respecto de la migración, alentándola a considerar seriamente la posibilidad de tramitarla en forma independiente. Simultáneamente, los posibles migrantes toman cada vez más en cuenta a las redes transnacionales como estructuras caracterizadas por elevados niveles de conexión y receptividad hacia los compatriotas radicados en el destino de migración. En los posibles migrantes crece la audaz voluntad de migrar por su cuenta y conectarse con las redes al llegar a destino. Datos etnográficos demuestran que en la mayoría de los casos esta estrategia de los migrantes ha resultado eficaz. Centrarse en este nuevo tipo de migración puede contribuir a explicar el cambiante papel de las redes transnacionales en el proceso de decisión de los posibles migrantes. Puede, asimismo, esclarecer el efecto limitado que las políticas migratorias restrictivas dirigidas a frenar el crecimiento de las redes transnacionales establecidas, ha ejercido en la continuidad de la migración. (del autor) Language: English Keywords: ECUADOR | ISRAEL | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL STUDIES | POPULATION THEORY | MIGRANTS | LABOR FORCE | IMMIGRANTS | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | DECISION MAKING | SOCIOLOGY | MIGRATION POLICY | South America, Western | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Middle East | Developed Countries | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Behavior | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors Document Number: 285059 |
| 13. Title: On human capital formation with exit options. Author: Katz E; Rapoport H Source: Journal of Population Economics. 2005;18:267-274. Abstract: We explore the relationship between economic volatility and human capital formation within a context of migration. We show that increased variability may raise the average educational level of the population even after netting out expected migration. In particular, we demonstrate that this is the case when individuals' abilities and the economy-wide shock are uniformly distributed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | MIGRANTS | HUMAN CAPITAL | LABOR MIGRATION | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | INCOME | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | DECISION MAKING | POPULATION THEORY | Research Methodology | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Socioeconomic Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Behavior | Demography | Social Sciences Document Number: 295365 |
| 14. Title: Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: a synthesis. Author: Kelley AC; Schmidt RM Source: Journal of Population Economics. 2005;18:275-300. Abstract: This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ''productivity'' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ''translation'' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ''enriched'' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | THEORETICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | WORKERS | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC MODEL | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION GROWTH | PRODUCTIVITY | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | Research Methodology | Data Analysis | Labor Force | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 295366 |
| 15. Title: DemProj. Version 4. A computer program for making population projections. Author: Stover J; Kirmeyer S Source: Washington, D.C. Futures Group, POLICY Project, 2005 Apr. [98] p. (Spectrum System of Policy ModelsUSAID Contract No. HRN-C-00-00-00006-00) Abstract: The demographic model in Spectrum, known as DemProj, is a computer program for making population projections for countries or regions. The program requires information on the number of people by age and sex in the base year, as well as current year data and future assumptions about the total fertility rate (TFR), the age distribution of fertility, life expectancy at birth by sex, the most appropriate model life table, and the magnitude and pattern of international migration (all of these inputs are discussed in Chapter III). This information is used to project the size of the future population by age and sex for as many as 150 years into the future. If desired, the projection can also estimate the size of the urban and rural populations. Linking DemProj with other modules in Spectrum makes it possible to examine the demographic impact of AIDS (AIM), the family planning service requirements to achieve demographic and health goals (FamPlan), the costs and benefits of family planning programs and thesocioeconomic impacts of high fertility and rapid population growth (RAPID). DemProj was first produced in 1980. Since then, it has been used by a large number of planners and researchers around the world. It has been updated from time to time in response to comments and suggestions from users. This current release, DemProj 4, incorporates a number of new features in response to these comments. DemProj (and the entire Spectrum system) is designed to produce information useful for policy formulation and dialogue within a framework of easy-to-use computer programs. The focus is on the generation of information useful for policy and planning purposes rather than detailed research into the underlying processes involved. For this reason, the programs are designed to be used by program planners and policy analysts. DemProj uses data that are readily available and requires little demographic experience beyond the information available in this manual. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | MANUAL | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | POLICYMAKERS | POPULATION | COMPUTER PROGRAMS AND PROGRAMMING | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION THEORY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | MORTALITY DETERMINANTS | MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Information Processing | Information | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Mortality Document Number: 315692 |
| 16. Title: Defusing the population bomb: Is security a rationale for reducing global population growth? Author: Urdal H Source: In: Environmental Change and Security Program Report. Issue 11, [compiled by] Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Environmental Change and Security Program. Washington, D.C., Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Environmental Change and Security Program, 2005. :5-11. Abstract: Demographic and environmental factors have claimed a dominant position in post-Cold War security discourse. According to neo-Malthusians, rapid population growth will lead to per capita scarcity of natural resources such as cropland, freshwater, forests, and fisheries, increasing the risk of violent conflict over scarce resources. In contrast, resource-optimists claim that scarcity of agricultural land, caused by high population density, may drive technological innovation, which could lead to economic development and thus build peace over the long term. Although world population growth is projected to eventually level out, some areas and countries will experience relatively high growth rates for decades to come. If these areas are seriously threatened by instability and violent conflict, reducing population growth could be an important concern for the international community. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | CRITIQUE | EVALUATION | POPULATION | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION CONTROL | MALTHUSIANISM | WAR | PRODUCTIVITY | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution Document Number: 325128 |
| 17. Title: Diseases, deaths, and life expectancy. Author: Vallin J Source: Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec;61(3-4):279-296. Abstract: Diseases can be seen in many different ways. From a demographic point of view, they are, first of all, a cause of death and a determinant of life expectancy, a factor of one of the main components of population dynamics, even if they must also be seen as a cause of illness and morbidity, a factor of the health status of the population. Furthermore, to understand the present situation and what the perspective for the 21st century could be, it is necessary to take an overall look at past trends, both in terms of time and of space. It will then become rather obvious that we are just ending an exceptional 2-century period of unprecedented progress which has led human societies to a stage where the worst combines with the best and where a general convergence toward a maximum life expectancy is not necessarily the most credible forecast. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | HISTORICAL REVIEW | THEORETICAL STUDIES | DISEASES | EPIDEMIOLOGY | MORTALITY | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION THEORY | ECONOMIC CONDITIONS | INEQUALITIES | ECOLOGY | Public Health | Health | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Length of Life | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Socioeconomic Factors | Environment Document Number: 293679 |
| 18. Title: Sayil revisited: inferring terminal classic population size and dynamics in the west-central Yucatán Peninsula. [Regreso a Sayil: deducción del tamańo y la dinámica de la población durante el período Clásico Terminal en la región central oeste de la península de Yucatán] Author: Andrews BW Source: Human Ecology. 2004 Oct;32(5):593-613. Abstract: Research at the site of Sayil in the Yucatan Peninsula has provided a valuable database for making inferences about the Terminal Classic (A.D. 750–1000) occupation of the Puuc region. This article evaluates and modifies previous demographic estimates for the site and considers the long-term implications associated with supporting this many people. Although a relatively high level of population was possible because of the excellent soils in the region, their natural fertility could not have been sustained indefinitely. The apparent demographic load on the proposed Sayil system would have required an intensive cropping strategy that may not have been sustainable for more than 75 years. This conclusion not only indicates how long the principal occupation of Sayil may have lasted, but more importantly, how the occupational dynamics during the Terminal Classic may have played out in the greater Puuc region. (author's) Spanish Abstract: La investigación en el emplazamiento de Sayil en la península de Yucatán ha suministrado una valiosa base de datos para realizar deducciones acerca de la ocupación durante el período Clásico Terminal (750-1000 DC) de la región de Puuc. El presente artículo evalúa y modifica cálculos demográficos previos sobre el emplazamiento y considera las repercusiones a largo plazo asociadas con el apoyo a tal cantidad de personas. Si bien se cree que existía un nivel demográfico relativamente elevado en virtud de los excelentes suelos de la región, su fertilidad natural no se habría sostenido indefinidamente. La supuesta carga demográfica sobre el sistema sugerido de Sayil hubiera exigido una estrategia de cultivos intensivos que quizás no se habría sostenido durante más de 75 ańos. Esta conclusión no sólo seńala la posible extensión de la principal ocupación de Sayil, sino que, fundamentalmente, indica el modo en que la dinámica ocupacional durante el período Clásico Terminal podría haber influido en la vasta región Puuc. (del autor) Language: English Keywords: MEXICO | HISTORICAL REVIEW | NATIVE AMERICANS | AGRICULTURE | LAND AND RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT | POPULATION PRESSURE | POPULATION THEORY | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | CARRYING CAPACITY | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | North America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Ethnic Groups | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Rural Development | Natural Resources | Environment | Demography | Social Sciences | Economic Development Document Number: 281577 |
| 19. Peer Reviewed Title: Proximate population factors and deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Author: Carr DL Source: Population and Environment. 2004 Jul;25(6):585-612. Abstract: Forest conversion for agriculture expansion is the most salient signature of human occupation of the earth’s land surface. Although population growth and deforestation are significantly associated at the global and regional scales, evidence for population links to deforestation at micro-scales—where people are actually clearing forests—is scant. Much of the planet’s forest elimination is proceeding along tropical agricultural frontiers. This article examines the evolution of thought on population–environment theories relevant to deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Four primary ways by which population dynamics interact with frontier forest conversion are examined: population density, fertility, and household demographic composition, and in-migration. (author’s) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | AGRICULTURAL WORKERS | DEFORESTATION | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | AGRICULTURE | POPULATION PRESSURE | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION DENSITY | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | LAND SUPPLY | MICROECONOMIC FACTORS | FERTILITY | Research Methodology | Labor Force | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Environmental Degradation | Environment | Demographic Factors | Population | Macroeconomic Factors | Carrying Capacity | Natural Resources | Demography | Social Sciences | Population Dynamics Document Number: 278747 |
| 20. Peer Reviewed Title: Overpopulation, sustainable development, and security: developing an integrated strategy. Author: Cassils JA Source: Population and Environment. 2004 Jan;25(3):171-194. Abstract: This paper proposes a symposium on overpopulation, sustainable development, and security. These issues are usually treated separately by politicians and the public, but addressing them intelligently requires seeing the interconnections. Many scientists warn that growing human numbers and consumption are undermining the carrying capacity of the Earth. Unfortunately, their advice has not been heeded as it is perceived as being contrary to some prevailing economic and social interests. This symposium would draw together some of the leading minds on the population/ resource issue for the purpose of initiating a process to bridge the gap between scientific concerns and public policy. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH PROPOSAL | RECOMMENDATIONS | POPULATION | POLICYMAKERS | OVERPOPULATION | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | DEVELOPMENT POLICY | CARRYING CAPACITY | ECOLOGY | ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | WAR | POPULATION THEORY | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION CONTROL | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Natural Resources | Environment | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Policy | Political Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Social Policy Document Number: 194363 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Discussion of paper 'Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities', Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr. The ‘curiously high’ fertility of the USA. Author: Frejka T Source: Population Studies. 2004 Mar;58(1):88-92. Abstract: When attempting to put together a comprehensive theory of low fertility, Caldwell and Schindlmayr are puzzled by fertility in the USA. They say: 'Perhaps what needs explanation is the curiously high fertility of the United States, and even that may be largely ascribable to a highly fertile immigration stream from Latin America.' US fertility is 'curiously high' from the standpoint of the low-fertility countries, given that the principal mechanisms driving fertility down throughout the developed countries were present also in the USA. Before reviewing a number of opinions, hypotheses, and analyses offered to explain why US fertility is relatively high, one proposition can be added to the framework outlined by Caldwell and Schindlmayr. New scientific and technological advancements in all areas of human endeavour and enterprise as well as in management practices have emerged continuously over recent decades at an unprecedented pace. That is an important reason why people need and get more education and training than ever before, and is reflected in the growing proportions of men and especially women who have acquired any type of education. Rather than being simply a 'temptation' (the term used in the paper), many young people see education as a necessary condition of being successful in a profession and of being able to earn a decent living. This forceful inner drive is as important a motivation as individual insecurity, and the latter may have been overemphasized by Caldwell and Schindlmayr. For instance, in the discussion of Eastern Europe, the shock at the disappearance of the guaranteed employment and social protection of the socialist state is repeatedly cited, whereas there is not a single mention of the attitudes and behaviour of generations born in the 1970s and early 1980s, many of whom would seek a solid education and advancement in professional life before forming families. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | CRITIQUE | THEORETICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | HIGH FERTILITY POPULATION | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | HISPANICS | BLACKS | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | POPULATION THEORY | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Population | Ethnic Groups | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Fertility Changes | Demography | Social Sciences | Economic Factors | Socioeconomic Status Document Number: 187299 |
| 22. Title: A fresh look into the technique for explaining change in life expectancies suggested by Chandar Sekar (1949). Author: Gandhi AR Source: [Unpublished] 2004. [29] p. Abstract: Changes in life expectancy at birth over time or of given two populations are generally studied by using decomposition of life expectancy at birth methodology that gives an idea about the relative contribution of each age group for a overall difference in life expectancy at birth. Among the existing decomposition techniques the methodology suggested by Chandra Sekar (1949) is seen to be the oldest, suggested way back in 1949; however this technique unfortunately not received enough recognition among the researchers. Thus the present paper primarily aims at revising the Chandra Sekar (1949) methodology. Secondly, by applying the revised method to the Indian mortality data it is successfully shown that female childhood mortality is still very high in the Indian states and especially in the rural areas and of the major backward states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and also Orissa when compared with other major states. Thus in the policy point of view more attention may be given by the government in further reducing childhood and adult hood mortality in India as a whole and especially among the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh. Finally, it is suggested here to use formula to get results without including the interaction affects for all practical purposes as the contribution from the interaction effects to the total effect is seen to be comparatively negligible. Thus in the present revised form late Chandrasekaran's (earlier known as Chandra Sekar) 1949 method seems to give comparatively good results when compared with the methodologies suggested by Andreev (1982), Pollard (1982), Pressat (1985), United Nations (1985), Lopez and Ruzicka (1977) and even Arriaga (1984). Chandra Sekar (1949) revised methodology presented here, as a matter of fact, refers to “Symmetrical” decomposition of LEB of two periods or sexes. However, following Arriaga (1984) the exclusive (or total) effect term that excludes the effect of interactions may be decomposed and seen as direct and indirect effect terms as it may contribute for better understanding of the particular age group effect for a change in the total life expectancy at birth differences over time or of given two populations. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | THEORETICAL STUDIES | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | RESEARCH REPORT | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | CHILD, FEMALE | POPULATION | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION THEORY | CHILD MORTALITY | MORTALITY | SEX FACTORS | AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Child | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Length of Life | Population Dynamics | Demography | Social Sciences | Death Rate Document Number: 194504 |
| 23. Peer Reviewed Title: The past, present and future of population geography: reflections on Glenn Trewartha's address fifty years on. Author: Graham E Source: Population, Space and Place. 2004;10:289-294. Abstract: On re-reading Trewartha's address 50 years after it was written, I am prompted to reflect on both the historical and geographical situatedness of his conception of a disciplinary space for population geography, as well as on my own concerns about population geography in the early twenty-first century. Trewartha's case for population geography, I suggest, reveals its cultural embeddedness within American geography of that time. However, it remains of more than historical interest since a similar case has yet to be articulated by the present generation of Anglo-American population geographers. I argue that, despite evident successes, population geography is currently facing two problems relating to its identity. The first arises from its marginalised position within human geography; and the second is associated with what might be called an 'imbalance' in the subject matter of research, where migration studies have become increasingly dominant. Both problems raise questions about the geographical credentials of population geography, and I ask what the future research agenda should be. New research frontiers appear to be re-mapping the spaces of knowledge in ways that could produce new configurations of the academy. In this context, the future of population geography seems uncertain. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | CRITIQUE | THEORETICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | POPULATION THEORY | CULTURAL BACKGROUND | ACADEMIC TRAINING | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Training Programs | Education Document Number: 302496 |
| 24. Peer Reviewed Title: Discussion of paper 'Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities', Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr. Method, theory, and substance in understanding choices about becoming a parent: progress or regress? Author: Hobcraft J Source: Population Studies. 2004 Mar;58(1):81-84. Abstract: Caldwell and Schindlmayr provide a useful and fairly comprehensive review of recent work on the issues surrounding very low fertility. However, they then fall into the trap of trying to find an elusive single 'ultimate cause'. I shall argue that the conclusions in their final section are poorly argued, flawed, and much too dismissive of the literature they reviewed from the 1990s, so that their ultimate common explanation is a minor variant on the earlier theories they had previously dismissed. In order to achieve a 'common explanation' we are advised to dismiss all the careful review of evidence on why and when very low fertility levels (here defined as a total fertility of less than 1.5) were achieved since 'the fertility differential between Northwestern Europe and the rest of Europe is too small to be taken seriously' and there 'is an extraordinary simultaneity in the contemporary world'! Do they really believe that sustained total fertility of 1.2 compared with 2.0 is of no consequence? The explanation of low fertility we are suddenly told, 'must be the creation of a world economic system where children are of no economic value to their parents'. Quite how this conclusion of economic determinism is reached remains unclear, but there seem to be echoes of an earlier Caldwell theory on 'intergenerational wealth flows'. We seem to have returned to the broad and vague explanations and theories about the (first) demographic transition. This presumption is perhaps confirmed in the opening sentence of their final paragraph: 'The broadest explanation would echo the 1937 view of Kingsley Davis that ultimately reproduction of the species is not easily compatible with advanced industrial society.' Did the baby boom never happen? Can it be ignored or dismissed in the need for a 'grand theory of everything'? (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, WESTERN | CRITIQUE | THEORETICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | PRONATALIST POLICY | ECONOMIC POLICY | SOCIAL POLICY | POPULATION THEORY | Europe | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Population | Fertility Changes | Population Policy | Policy | Demography | Social Sciences Document Number: 187296 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: Cognitive models of fertility decline in Oaxaca City, Mexico. [Modelos cognitivos de disminución de la fertilidad en la ciudad de Oaxaca, México] Author: Kennedy DP Source: Population and Environment. 2004 Jan;25(3):243-274. Abstract: This paper presents a systematic analysis of the “culture of natality.” In the first section, I present an extended definition of culture informed by cognitive anthropology and evolutionary biology. I argue that culture is an adaptation and a virtual environment with which humans must interact in order to survive and reproduce in a given physical environment. In the second section, I present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of qualitative interview data collected in Oaxaca City, Mexico, on reproductive behavior. The analysis examines evidence of cultural differences and similarities. I conclude by discussing implications for a theory of fertility decline. (author's) Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo presenta un análisis sistemático de la "cultura de la natalidad". En la primera sección, se presenta una definición detallada de cultura basada en la antropología cognitiva y la biología evolutiva. Se postula que la cultura es una adaptación y un entorno virtual con el cual las personas deben interactuar para sobrevivir y reproducirse en un ámbito físico dado. En la segunda sección, se presenta un análisis cuali-cuantitativo de datos cualitativos obtenidos en entrevistas sobre conducta reproductiva realizadas en la ciudad de Oaxaca, México. El análisis evalúa evidencias de diferencias y similitudes culturales. A modo de conclusión, se analizan posibles implicancias para una teoría de la disminución de la fertilidad. (del autor) Language: English Keywords: MEXICO | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | KAP SURVEYS | QUALITATIVE RESEARCH | URBAN POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | CULTURE | ANTHROPOLOGY, CULTURAL | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | POPULATION THEORY | North America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Anthropology | Social Sciences | Demography Document Number: 194364 |
| 26. Peer Reviewed Title: Discussion of paper 'Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities', Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr. The reasons for Eastern Europe’s low fertility. Author: Macura M Source: Population Studies. 2004 Mar;58(1):85-88. Abstract: In the second half of the twentieth century economic growth was a common and highly cherished goal of all the industrialized societies, no matter whether the system of government was one of parliamentary democracy or of the kind that used to be called in Eastern Europe a 'people's democracy'. After the latter systems disintegrated in the period 1989-91, the goal of economic growth became ever more important to the new democratically elected governments, which to that end have been pursuing (some more vigorously than others) liberal economic policies as a mean of transforming command economies into market economies. We believe that the search by Caldwell and Schindlmayr for an overarching explanation of very low fertility rightly focuses on the preoccupation with economic growth in present-day industrial and post- industrial societies. We find persuasive the authors' view that the 'creation of the world economic system' driven by liberal economic policies may prove in time to be the dominant force behind low, particularly very low, fertility, and that welfare regimes, family systems, and temporary economic crises will come to be seen as factors of second-order importance. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, EASTERN | CRITIQUE | THEORETICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | SOCIAL POLICY | POPULATION THEORY | Developing Countries | Europe | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Population | Fertility Changes | Policy | Demography | Social Sciences Document Number: 187298 |
| 27. Peer Reviewed Title: The post-Trewartha Boom: the rise of demographics and applied population geography. Author: Plane DA Source: Population, Space and Place. 2004;10:285-288. Abstract: This essay focuses on the rise of applied population geography coincident with the lifecourse of persons born 50 years ago when Glenn Trewartha presented 'A case for population geography'. Applied population geography and demographics came of age along with the post--Second World War baby boom generation. At the present time and in coming decades, new sources of population data and modes of analysis should lead to an ever-expanding role for 'geographic method' in population research, the business world and governmental realms. The paper concludes with some thoughts on geographical education in the face of a robust job market for students trained for careers in demographics and local scale planning. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | THEORETICAL STUDIES | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | STUDENTS | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | POPULATION THEORY | GEOGRAPHY | DEMOGRAPHY | ACADEMIC TRAINING | CURRICULUM | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Education | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Training Programs Document Number: 302409 |
| 28. Peer Reviewed Title: The demographic transition revisited as a global process. Author: Reher DS Source: Population, Space and Place. 2004 Jan-Feb;10(1):19-41. Abstract: With dramatic declines in fertility taking place throughout the world, it is increasingly important to understand the demographic transition as a global process. While this universality was a cornerstone of classic transition theories, for many decades it was largely neglected by experts because fertility in the developing world did not seem to follow the expected pattern. When comparing earlier and more recent transition experiences, important similarities and disparities can be seen. Everywhere mortality decline appears to have played a central role for fertility decline. The differences in the timing of the response of fertility to mortality decline, with very small gaps historically and prolonged ones in more recent transitions, plus the much more rapid decline in vital rates in many developing countries, constitute an important challenge to any general explanation of the process. The specific characteristics of recent transitions have led to decades of higher population growth rates, and promise to give way to much more rapid dynamics of population ageing in many countries. This may limit the ability of newcomers to take full advantage of the demographic transition for the social and economic modernisation of their societies. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | HISTORICAL REVIEW | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | MORTALITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | MIGRATION | MODERNIZATION | HUMAN CAPITAL | POPULATION THEORY | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Mortality | Social Change | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Demography | Social Sciences Document Number: 192553 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Contradictions in Nigeria's fertility transition: the burdens and benefits of having people. Author: Smith DJ Source: Population and Development Review. 2004 Jun;30(2):221-238. Abstract: Assessments of global fertility trends indicate that the pace of transition to lower fertility in developing countries has been faster than predicted in some of the more pessimistic scenarios presented in previous decades. According to current data, sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest levels of fertility, but even there the pace of decline appears to be faster than many analysts had predicted. Fairly substantial changes in countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe suggest that high-fertility regimes in sub-Saharan Africa may be relegated to history in the not too distant future. But whether African fertility will decline as quickly from moderate to low levels as it has from very high to moderate levels remains uncertain. In Nigeria, the pace of fertility decline has been relatively slow, especially given the country’s considerable economic resources and human capital. Nigerians in their reproductive years are making fertility decisions that will determine the country’s demographic momentum for the next few decades. While analyses of census data and large-scale surveys provide information about trends and permit inferences about the kinds of variables that affect people’s fertility behavior, they tell us little about the experiences of people who are having children in the midst of Africa’s apparent fertility transition. This article presents an ethnographic account and an anthropological analysis of the contradictory pressures that Nigerians face as they decide how many children to have. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: NIGERIA | THEORETICAL STUDIES | QUALITATIVE RESEARCH | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | ETHNIC GROUPS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | ANTHROPOLOGY, CULTURAL | CULTURE | POLITICAL FACTORS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION THEORY | SOCIAL ADJUSTMENT | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Anthropology | Social Sciences | Demography | Social Behavior | Behavior Document Number: 194651 |
| 30. Title: Global estimates and projections of world populations: Relation between hypothesis, theories and policies. Author: Soliani L Source: International Journal of Anthropology. 2004 Oct;19(4):297-316. Abstract: The United Nations 2002 Revision of the world population projections has radically reviewed the results of the preceding revision. The results obtained show that it is reasonable to dispel the fear of an excessive and perhaps uncontrolled growth of world population, which alarmed public opinion and many international organizations in the last decades. Even in the medium variant, by the year 2050 world population will be less than 9 billion, with zero growth. In view of the fact that fertility will remain below replacement level, after that a process of slow decrease might set in, despite a further sharp increase in survival rates. The objectives of the projections are of an administrative nature: firstly, to adapt global and local policies to the real needs of the population; secondly, to distinguish the trends that are favourable or harmful for the population's greater well-being; thirdly, to govern society in such a way as to achieve the highest possible standard of living, which must be extended to everyone, long-lasting, and therefore compatible with the limits imposed by the environment; the final objective is not to subtract resources from the future generations. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | THEORETICAL MODELS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | POPULATION THEORY | THEORETICAL EFFECTIVENESS | POPULATION POLICY | DEMOGRAPHY | Research Methodology | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Contraceptive Effectiveness | Contraception | Family Planning | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors Document Number: 314819 |
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