1.  Title: China's excess males, sex selective abortion, and one child policy: analysis of data from 2005 national intercensus survey. Author: Zhu WX; Lu L; Hesketh T Source: BMJ. 2009;338:b1211. Abstract: OBJECTIVES: To elucidate current trends and geographical patterns in the sex ratio at birth and in the population aged under 20 in China and to determine the roles played by sex selective abortion and the one child policy. DESIGN: Analysis of household based cross sectional population survey done in November 2005. SETTING: All of China's 2861 counties. Population 1% of the total population, selected to be broadly representative of the total. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Sex ratio defined as males per 100 females. RESULTS: 4 764 512 people under the age of 20 were included. Overall sex ratios were high across all age groups and residency types, but they were highest in the 1-4 years age group, peaking at 126 (95% confidence interval 125 to 126) in rural areas. Six provinces had sex ratios of over 130 in the 1-4 age group. The sex ratio at birth was close to normal for first order births but rose steeply for second order births, especially in rural areas, where it reached 146 (143 to 149). Nine provinces had ratios of over 160 for second order births. The highest sex ratios were seen in provinces that allow rural inhabitants a second child if the first is a girl. Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males. One particular variant of the one child policy, which allows a second child if the first is a girl, leads to the highest sex ratios. CONCLUSIONS: In 2005 males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred. China will see very high and steadily worsening sex ratios in the reproductive age group over the next two decades. Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalisation of the ratios. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | HOUSEHOLDS | ONE CHILD POLICY | ABORTION | SEX PREFERENCE | SEX RATIO | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | AGE FACTORS | POPULATION PROJECTION | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Antinatalist Policy | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Value Orientation | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 331270 Notification |
| 2. Title: World urbanization prospects: the 2007 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2008 Feb 26. [19] p. Abstract: Since 1988 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has been issuing every two years revised and updated estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations of all countries in the world and of their major urban agglomerations. This note presents the main findings of the 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects which are consistent with the size of the total population of each country as estimated or projected in the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects. The 2007 Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world for the period 1950-2050. The results are shown for development groups, six major areas (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania) and 21 regions. Data are further disaggregated for the 229 countries or areas of the world. The 2007 Revision also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2007 for the period 1950-2025. Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas and the population of cities are derived on the basis of national statistics. The most common source of data on the proportion urban and the population of cities and urban agglomerations is the population census. For some countries, the basic data are obtained from population registers or administrative statistics. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | SUMMARY REPORT | URBAN AREAS | RURAL AREAS | POPULATION PROJECTION | URBANIZATION | POPULATION GROWTH | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | URBAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | Geographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors Document Number: 324699 |
| 3. Title: Population, health, and environment issues in the Philippines. A profile of Calabarzon (Region 4-A). Author: De La Paz MC; Colson L Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], Population, Health, and Environment Program, 2008 Oct. 6 p. Abstract: Linking population, health, and environment (PHE) issues is becoming increasingly important for the Philippines, where natural resources and public health and well-being are often negatively affected by factors such as population pressures and poverty. Understanding these connections--including the economic and social context in which they occur--and addressing PHE issues in an integrated manner is critical for achieving sustainable development. This regional PHE profile highlights key population, health, and environment indicators and important development challenges for the Calabarzon Region (Region 4-A). The profile is designed to help educators, policymakers, and community leaders identify key threats to sustainable development and explore possible approaches to addressing them. This profile is part of a series covering select regions of the Philippines, and is intended as a companion publication to the Population Reference Bureau's 2006 data sheet, Making the Link in the Philippines: Population, Health, and the Environment. Language: English Keywords: PHILIPPINES | RESEARCH REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | EVALUATION INDEXES | POPULATION | ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION SIZE | URBANIZATION | FAMILY PLANNING | NATURAL RESOURCES | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Environment | Economic Factors | Demographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Estimation Techniques | Health Document Number: 323137 |
| 4. Title: Achieving Uttar Pradesh’s population policy goals through demand-based family planning programs: taking stock at the mid-point. Author: Feranil I; Borda M Source: Washington, D.C., Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, Futures Group International, 2008. :vii, 17 p.. (USAID Contract No. GPO-I-01-05-00040-00) Abstract: This report describes progress in achieving the goals of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) Population Policy adopted in 2000, the implications of alternative fertility and mortality trends during the next decade, and strategies and program initiatives recommended by national and state policymakers and other experts. To assess progress in implementing the UP Population Policy and to show how fertility trends would affect maternal and child health and socioeconomic development, the USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, analyzed data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) conducted in 2005-06. The project conducted the analysis using the FamPlan, DemProj, and RAPID models within Spectrum, a modeling system that uses computer software to generate projections and estimates showing the results of policy alternatives. Language: English Keywords: INDIA | PROGRESS REPORT | HEALTH SURVEYS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DATA ANALYSIS | USAID | GOALS | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM EVALUATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION | CONTRACEPTIVE AVAILABILITY | POSTPARTUM PROGRAMS | COMMUNICATION STRATEGY | DATA QUALITY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Health | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Government Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Planning | Organization and Administration | Social Policy | Policy | Family Planning Programs | Family Planning | Estimation Techniques | Contraception | Communication Document Number: 308942 |
| 5. Title: Global aging and the demographic divide. Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Apr. [7] p. Abstract: In the latter half of the last century, the world's developed nations completed a long process of demographic transition. The field of demography describes this demographic transition as a shift from a period of high mortality, short lives, and large families to one with a longer life expectancy and far fewer children. This transformation took many centuries in Europe and North America as people moved from farms to cities; basic public health measures steadily reduced the risk of contagious disease; and modern medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths. In developing countries, this demographic transition is certainly underway, though these countries vary widely at their places along the spectrum. Very low birth rates and the resultant population decrease have received considerable media attention, particularly in Europe and parts of eastern Asia. In the past, when demographers projected national and global populations, the projections commonly assumed that birth rates would decline worldwide but only to the "two-child" family, i.e., two children per woman or per couple on average. An assumption that fertility would fall below this rate would have some unpleasant consequences: a decrease in population size and a population top-heavy with retired seniors who would depend upon the social taxes paid by a dwindling number of younger workers. While it may not have been desirable to project such a gloomy scenario in the past, this is exactly what has transpired in many countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors Document Number: 326012 |
| 6. Title: Tracking trends in low fertility countries: An uptick in Europe? Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Sep. [3] p. Abstract: PRB has made a major update to its table of total fertility rates (TFRs) in countries with low or very low fertility rates. The newest tabulations suggest that fertility may be rising in some countries. But does this signal a more general trend? Carl Haub, PRB's senior demographer, analyzed the data. Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | GLOBAL | SUMMARY REPORT | FERTILITY RATE | BIRTH RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | POPULATION PROJECTION | CHANGES | Developed Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 331484 |
7.  Peer Reviewed Title: Estimating the number of HIV infections averted: an approach and its issues. Author: Heaton LM; Komatsu R; Low-Beer D; Fowler TB; Way PO Source: Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008;84(Suppl 1):i92-i96. Abstract: The object was to propose a methodology to estimate the number of new HIV infections averted. Knowledge of HIV infection has increased tremendously and modelling tools to project current epidemics into the future have greatly improved. Different types of models can be used to estimate HIV infections averted, although the number of new HIV infections averted cannot be measured directly. Using cohort-component population projections, a disease modelling-based approach was used to compare the observed epidemiology of a disease after programme initiation with an expected epidemiology from past trends before programme initiation. The concept of modelling infections averted in a disease modelling-based approach involves a comparison between an "expected" or baseline epidemic with an "estimated" one. A hypothetical example was featured in order to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Using both the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and the Spectrum demographic modelling program, the underlying annual incidence levels implied by both the baseline and estimated epidemics were examined. The difference between baseline and estimated incidence levels is interpreted as "infections averted". Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. In this study an expected epidemiological approach was compared to one based on observation. Once sufficient data become available, the validation of various country data including HIV prevalence, mortality, and behaviour must be done. Additional information related to behaviour change may be critical to further support arguments for a change in disease trend. It is therefore important to use all available data, consequently strengthening findings from a disease modelling-based approach on HIV infections averted. Language: English Keywords: METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | COHORT ANALYSIS | BASELINE SURVEYS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | ADULTS | HIV PREVENTION | EPIDEMICS | POPULATION PROJECTION | INCIDENCE | Research Methodology | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Theoretical Models | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement Document Number: 323042 |
| 8. Title: An aging world - demographics and challenges [editorial] Author: Lunenfeld B Source: Gynecological Endocrinology. 2008 Jan;24(1):1-3. Abstract: The world has seen enormous changes over the past century, including historically unprecedented declines in mortality rates and increases in population, followed by equally unprecedented declines in fertility rates. This century will see a new set of demographic challenges, including a mix of falling fertility rates alongside persisting worldwide population growth, and the subsequent aging of populations in both developing and developed countries. The 20th century was the century of population growth; the 21st century will go into the history books as the century of aging. A holistic approach to this new challenge of the 21st century will necessitate a quantum leap in multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated research efforts, supported by a new partnership between industry and governments, philanthropic and international organizations. This collaboration we hope will enrich us with a better understanding of healthy aging, permit us to help to improve quality of life, prevent the preventable, and postpone and decrease the pain and suffering of the inevitable. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES | OLDER ADULTS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | QUALITY OF LIFE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | LIFE STYLE | RISK REDUCTION BEHAVIOR | PREVENTIVE MEDICINE | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Welfare | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Length of Life | Mortality | Natural Resources | Environment | Behavior | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 324751 |
| 9. Title: The coming acceleration of global population ageing [letter] Author: Lutz W; Sanderson W; Scherbov S Source: Nature. 2008 Feb 7;451:716-719. Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by midcentury. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION PROJECTION | MEASUREMENT | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 326160 |
| 10. Title: U.S. population projections: 2005-2050. Author: Passel JS; Cohn D Source: Washington, D.C., Pew Research Center, 2008 Feb 11. [55] p. (Report) Abstract: If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center. Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren. Among the other key population projections: Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago. The major role of immigration in national growth builds on the pattern of recent decades, during which immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren accounted for most population increase. Immigration's importance increased as the average number of births to U.S.-born women dropped sharply before leveling off. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | TECHNICAL REPORT | POPULATION PROJECTION | IMMIGRANTS | MIGRATION | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Migrants | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 324199 |
| 11. Title: Demographic change in the Arab countries: prospects for the future. Summary of social policies. No. 1. Author: Shakour B Source: Beirut, Lebanon, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia [ESCWA], 2008 Dec 16. 11 p. (E/ESCWA/SDD/2008/Technical Paper.4) Workshop on Reinforcing National Capacities in Responding to the World Programme of Action on Youth: National reports and systematic documentation of accomplishments, Beirut, 17 December 2008. Abstract: Demographic analysis indicates that in the near future the Arab countries will fall into two groups. The first group will consist of those countries enjoying a demographic return from the increased supply of jobs, the fall in the dependency ratio and the resultant increase in savings: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, the Syrian Arab Republic and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. The second group will comprise those countries enjoying a demographic return but one whose onset was too late to fall within the time frame set by the programme of work of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and the United Nations? Millennium Declaration of 2000. Both groups will face major challenges and both need to formulate appropriate policies. The first group could face multiple challenges, so it must not miss this opportunity and must make an effort to seize it, especially as it will help these countries carry out their commitments to eradicate poverty and improve the quality of human life. The countries in the second group need to work to accelerate the onset of the demographic dividend by developing population policies that will accelerate fertility reduction and develop human capital. These countries may not manage to halve the material poverty rate by 2015, but they may be able to reduce human poverty. They could do this by directing their policies towards human welfare, especially in the countries that suffer from human poverty in addition to the poverty of income. (Excerpt) Language: English Keywords: MIDDLE EAST | CONFERENCES AND CONGRESSES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | YOUTH | POLICYMAKERS | WORKSHOPS | CAPACITY BUILDING | SOCIAL POLICY | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEVELOPMENT POLICY | POLICY DEVELOPMENT | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | POLITICAL FACTORS | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Education | Program Sustainability | Programs | Policy | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Estimation Techniques | Planning | Age Distribution Document Number: 331362 |
| 12. Peer Reviewed Title: The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds. Author: Stover J; Johnson P; Zaba B; Zwahlen M; Dabis F; Ekpini RE Source: Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008;84(Suppl 1):i24-i30. Abstract: The approach to national and global estimates of HIV/AIDS used by UNAIDS starts with estimates of adult HIV prevalence prepared from surveillance data using either the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook. Time trends of prevalence are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs and the impact of treatment on survival. The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest update to Spectrum was used in the 2007 round of global estimates. Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. The structure of the population was reorganised to track populations by HIV status and treatment status. Mortality estimates were improved by the adoption of new approaches to estimating non-AIDS mortality by single age, and the use of new information on survival with HIV in non-treated cohorts and on the survival of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). A more detailed treatment of mother-to-child transmission of HIV now provides more prophylaxis and infant feeding options. New procedures were implemented to estimate the uncertainty around each of the key outputs. The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners. Language: English Keywords: METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | ADULTS | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN | INFANT | DEATH RATE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | NEEDS ASSESSMENT | UNAIDS | PREVENTION OF MOTHER-TO-CHILD TRANSMISSION | PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | TREATMENT | SURVIVORSHIP | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Youth | Mortality | Population Dynamics | HIV | Evaluation | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Disease Transmission Control | Prevention and Control | Measurement | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Length of Life Document Number: 323043 |
| 13. Peer Reviewed Title: Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades. Author: Streatfield PK; Karar ZA Source: Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition. 2008 Sep;26(3):261-72. Abstract: Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | CONTRACEPTION | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | CLIMATE | AGRICULTURE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Family Planning | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Environment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 328892 |
| 14. Title: The future population of India. A long-range demographic view. Author: Population Foundation of India; Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: New Delhi, India, Population Foundation of India, 2007 Aug. 15 p. Abstract: India's population passed the one billion mark in 2000 and, this year, celebrated its 60th year as an independent country. Its population is likely to pass China's as the world's largest within 20 years. All of this leads quite naturally to the question: how large might the population of the world's largest democracy become? This is the question that the Population Foundation of India and its partner, the Population Reference Bureau, have addressed to project India's population for the long term. In this publication, two scenarios of India's future population are offered. Both assume that fertility will decline continuously to the point where couples average two children each, the goal of India's National Population Policy 2000. The scenarios differ in one respect: one assumes that states with higher current fertility will decline to the "replacement level" of 2.1 children, a common assumption in projections. The second assumes that the decline will continue to 1.85 children, near the level observed in states such as Kerala. The first scenario results in an India of two billion population while the second falls short of that mark and results in eventual population decline. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | MIGRATION | MORTALITY | POPULATION GROWTH | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Length of Life Document Number: 320374 |
| 15. Title: World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2007. [118] p. (ESA/P/WP.202) Abstract: The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | UN | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | MORTALITY DECLINE | HIV INFECTIONS | PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY | Research Methodology | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Demographic Factors | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement Document Number: 316765 |
| 16. Peer Reviewed Title: Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Impact of international migration on population ageing. Author: Bijak J; Kupiszewska D; Kupiszewski M; Saczuk K; Kicinger A Source: European Journal of Population. 2007 Mar;23(1):1-31. Abstract: Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002--2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION PROJECTION | LABOR FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | AGE FACTORS | Developed Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics Document Number: 313325 |
| 17. Title: From red to gray. The "third transition" of aging populations in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Author: Chawla M; Betcherman G; Banerji A; Bakilana AM; Feher C Source: Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2007. [295] p. Abstract: This third transition-from red to gray-is unique. Populations have been aging quite rapidly in many countries; by 2010, populations will start decreasing in such industrial countries as France, Italy, and Japan. Yet the unique conjunction of rapidly aging and relatively poor populations exists only in this region. Indeed, between 2000 and 2005, the only countries in the world with population declines of more than 5,000 people were 16 countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union-led by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Romania, Belarus, and Bulgaria. No aging country is as poor as Georgia-set to lose 800,000 people over the next two decades and with a per capita gross national income of just US$1,060 in 2004. And no other countries in the world face the dual challenges of a rapidly aging population and an incomplete transition to mature market institutions to deal with the adverse economic consequences of aging. This report examines the possible impact of this third transition. It analyzes projections and policy outlooks for a whole range of issues, from labor markets to pension policies, from health care to savings and capital markets. It concludes that although aging in the region is occurring in the context of unprecedentedly weak institutional development, countries can avoid severe economic consequences if they accelerate their economic transition and undertake longer-term policies to meet the aging challenge. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, EASTERN | PROGRESS REPORT | TECHNICAL REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | LABOR FORCE | SAVINGS | OLD AGE SECURITY | EXPENDITURES | EDUCATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | RETIREMENT | Developing Countries | Europe | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Financial Activities | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Employment Status | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 321130 |
| 18. Title: Demographic change and future carbon emissions in China and India. Author: Dalton M; Jiang L; Pachauri S; O'Neill BC Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 25 p. Abstract: This paper investigates whether projected changes in the demographic characteristics of Chinese and Indian households over the next century could have a substantial influence on consumption, economic growth, energy demand, and carbon dioxide emissions. We use new household projections for China and India that model changes in population size, urbanization, and the size and age structure of households over the next 100 years. The initial economic characteristics of different household types, including demand for consumer goods, supplies of labor, and capital, are estimated from household surveys and production data for each country. A global energy-economic growth model simulates economic growth as well as changes in consumption of various goods, direct and indirect energy demand, and carbon emissions over time. Effects of demographic change are compared under different scenarios that include technical change. Results show that explicit consideration of urbanization leads to a substantial increase in projected emissions, while aging leads to a decrease. The net effect of demographic change is to increase projected emissions from China by 45% by the end of the century, and from India, by 15-35%. (author's) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | HOUSEHOLDS | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION | FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY | POPULATION PROJECTION | HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION | URBANIZATION | POPULATION SIZE | PRODUCTION | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Asia, Southern | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Population | Theoretical Models | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Environmental Degradation | Environment | Family Research | Estimation Techniques | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Macroeconomic Factors Document Number: 317828 |
| 19. Peer Reviewed Title: Time to pregnancy and multiple births. Author: Ferrari RM; Cooney MA; Vexler A; Liu A; Buck Louis GM Source: Human Reproduction. 2007 Feb;22(2):407-413. Abstract: Mothers of multiples are alleged to be more fecund than mothers of singletons. Some authors have suggested monitoring twinning rates for assessing temporal changes in a population's reproductive health. Using a nested case-control design, we estimated the odds of a multiple birth in relation to fecundity in the US Collaborative Perinatal Project inclusive of 8546 pregnant women who reported a known time-to-pregnancy (TTP) upon enrolment in the cohort, 1959-1966. Case mothers comprised 81 women giving birth to twins/triplets; control mothers comprised 243 women giving birth to singletons matched to case mothers on maternal age at a ratio of 3:1. The odds ratio (OR) for a multiple birth within 6 months of trying adjusting for maternal age and prior pregnancies was estimated using logistic regression. Discrete time Cox regression analysis was also utilized to estimate the fecundability OR. Women with a TTP of = 6 months were more likely to have a multiple birth than women reporting a TTP of > 6 months [OR = 1.95; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.09-3.51]. Excluding pregnancies after 13+ months resulted in a loss of precision (OR = 2.14; 95% CI = 0.90-5.04). These data support higher fecundity among mothers of multiples than mothers of singletons. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | CASE CONTROL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | WOMEN | MULTIPLE BIRTH | TIME FACTORS | FECUNDITY | POPULATION PROJECTION | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Data Analysis | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproduction | Population Dynamics Document Number: 312198 |
| 20. Title: Son preference and the marriage squeeze in China: an integrated analysis of first marriage and the remarriage market. Author: Jiang Q; Attane I; Li S; Feldman MW Source: In: Watering the neighbour's garden: The growing demographic female deficit in Asia, edited by Isabelle Attane and Christophe Z. Guilmoto. Paris, France, Committee for International Cooperation in National Research in Demography [CICRED], 2007. :347-363. "Chapters in this volume originate from papers presented at an international seminar organized by the authors in Singapore on 5-7 December 2005". Abstract: In this chapter, the authors adjust the index used by Tuljapurkar et al. (1995) to include the effect of remarriage on marriage squeeze, and analyze China's potential marriage squeeze from 2001 to 2050. The chapter is divided into three sections. First, they introduce, evaluate and adjust the index used by Tuljapurkar et al. (1995), develop new ones to take remarriage into account, and introduce the data to be used. Second, they measure China's marriage squeeze with these adjusted and newly developed indices, and investigate the impact of son preference and remarriage on China's first marriage market. The chapter concludes with a discussion of likely social consequences brought about by the male marriage squeeze. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | EVALUATION INDEXES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | SONS | SEX PREFERENCE | REMARRIAGE | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | SEX RATIO | MARRIAGE AGE | SEX FACTORS | POPULATION PROJECTION | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Value Orientation | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Population Characteristics Document Number: 308907 |
| 21. Title: Pakistan, population programmes and progress. Author: Mahsud-Dornan S Source: Ulster Medical Journal. 2007 Sep;76(3):122-123. Abstract: The Islamic Republic of Pakistan celebrated its Golden Jubilee in 1997, 50 years after the partitioning of United India from the British Raj. For Pakistan, this was also a time to evaluate the health and population status of its people. In Pakistan, during the 1940s, population growth rates begin to accelerate as health improvements lengthened life expectancy and birth rates remained high. In 1947, at the time of independence, Pakistan's population was 31 million. By 1995 it had escalated to 140 million Family planning programmes were started in the 1950s and 1960s by private and government institutions. Donors such as World Bank and the UN along with the government of Pakistan funded the programmes for family planning (FP). For years these institutions focused only on women as it was thought that FP was the preserve of women, therefore the audience was 100% female. In 1947, the fertility rate was 7.5 per women and the population growth rate 4.5% per year. In the 1990s these were reduced to 5.1 and 2.9, respectively, but this reduction is negligible. Presently, 41% of the total population in Pakistan is under the age of 15 years. A large number of young people are about to enter their reproductive years, virtually guaranteeing continued rapid population growth for the foreseeable future. By the year 2035, Pakistan's population is projected at 260 million (UNFPA, Pakistan). (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: PAKISTAN | PROGRESS REPORT | CRITIQUE | POPULATION PROGRAMS | PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS | FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION PROJECTION | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Population Control | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 320806 |
| 22. Peer Reviewed Title: Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 -- 2050. Author: Matysiak A; Nowok B Source: Demographic Research. 2007 Nov 20;17(11):301-338. Abstract: Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social consequences of the collapse of the communist regime. Since 2004 they have been shaped by Poland's entry into the European Union. Secondly, the availability of statistics for Poland on past trends is strongly limited. The resulting high uncertainty of future trends should be dealt with systematically, which is an essential part of the stochastic forecast presented in this paper. The forecast results show that with the probability of 81.8% the Polish population will decline during the next decades and Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. There is a probability of 50% that in 2050 the population will number between 25.7 and 36.5 million compared to 38.2 in 2004 and that there will be at least 64 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64. (author's) Language: English Keywords: POLAND | EUROPEAN UNION | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION DECREASE | PROBABILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | DEATH RATE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Europe, Central | Europe | Developing Countries | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Demographic Factors | Statistical Studies | Studies | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Mortality | Length of Life | Migration Document Number: 313972 |
| 23. Title: The intrinsic total fertility rate: a new approach to the measurement of fertility. Author: McDonald P; Kippen R Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 19 p. Abstract: Demographers measure and explain fertility at both the individual and the aggregate levels. Individual level analysis makes use of standard statistical techniques with some measure of fertility as the dependent variable. In individual analysis, the main 'demographic' variables related to fertility, age and parity, will either be a defining component of the dependent variable or will be employed as control variables in the analysis. Given the nature of available data, individual level analysis of fertility is usually cross-sectional, although when multiple cross-sections or life history data are available, comparisons will be made about the variation in observed associations across time. Again because of the nature of the available data, it is rare indeed that full fertility histories of birth cohorts are examined in individual level analysis. In aggregate level analysis of fertility, the available data are usually restricted to a very small number of characteristics such as age, place of residence and parity. The simple Period Total Fertility Rate (PTFR) for a geographic area remains the most commonly available aggregate measure. Often it is the only available aggregate measure of the fertility trend. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: AUSTRALIA | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | COHORT ANALYSIS | PERIOD ANALYSIS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | CASE STUDIES | POPULATION | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DECISION MAKING | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | CENSUS | Developed Countries | Oceania | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Studies | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Population Decrease | Behavior | Population Statistics Document Number: 318535 |
| 24. Title: Reality Check family planning forecasting tool. User's guide. Version I. Author: Pile JM; Smith A; Kumar J Source: New York, New York, EngenderHealth, ACQUIRE Project, 2007 Dec. 76 p. (USAID Cooperative Agreement No. GPO-A-00-03-00006-00) Abstract: Reality Check is a family planning projection tool consisting of a straightforward Excel Workbook that allows one to assess past trends in the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and test future scenarios for the geographic area in which one's program is operating. The tool also allows users to test and assess whether established goals are reasonable based on the local, specific context. Reality v was designed for multiple audiences to run projections based on the geographic focus of their choosing. Beneficiaries of the tool would include Ministry of Health planners and administrators at the national, provincial, or district levels, as well as family planning programmers at donor agencies or cooperating agencies. Anyone with basic Excel skills will be able to make their way through using the tool. The tool was also designed to be a stand-alone product that could be used in low-resource settings, where high-capacity Internet connections or high-level programming skills may not be available. The purpose of this User's Guide is to instruct a user on how to apply the tool; the guide sets forth instructions and methodology for projecting family planning trends. It is written for self-teaching and can also be used as a tool for group trainings. The guide presents an overview of the tool and instructions on how to examine past trends and project them into the future. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | MANUAL | FAMILY PLANNING PERSONNEL | FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS | FAMILY PLANNING DISCONTINUERS | PLANNING | POPULATION PROJECTION | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | SERVICE STATISTICS | EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES | GOALS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | Family Planning Programs | Family Planning | Organization and Administration | Research Methodology | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Program Activities | Programs | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 327097 |
| 25. Title: Population projection of India using MCMC technique: A WinBUGS implementation. Author: Rahul GS; Singh OP Source: Demography India. 2007 Jan-Jun;36(1):145-154. Abstract: Here, an attempt has been made to fit the logistic growth model on the total population of India obtained from previous censuses from 1901 to 2001 and to project the future population on the basis of this nonlinear regression model. The aim of this study is to merely present an implementation of Bayesian inference using MCMC tool for this purpose, which is not yet common in demography. Here we will not attempt to assess the relative merits of different projection methods. However, we have made a comparison with the projections made by Dyson (2004) to make a broad assessment of the goodness of our estimates. The estimation of parameters, fitting of the model and the projections have been made using the software WinBUGS 1.4.1. Here it is pertinent to state that the use of Bayesian tools for data analysis in social sciences is increasingly being popular. The invention of MCMC tool has made it much more popular. It is now equipped with various powerful softwares and many of the new packages are in the way to be added in the list. Naturally, it is attracting more and more people engaged in various fields including social science to use these tools for the data analysis (Gill, 2002; Lewis and Raftery, 1999). Demographic studies will not lag behind in this perspective. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | LOGISTIC MODEL | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | CENSUS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Mathematical Model | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Population Statistics Document Number: 324149 |
| 26. Peer Reviewed Title: Towards long-term population decline: A discussion of relevant issues. Author: Reher DS Source: European Journal of Population. 2007 Jun;23(2):189-207. Abstract: This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | CONFERENCES AND CONGRESSES | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION DECREASE | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY | MORTALITY DETERMINANTS | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Fertility | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Mortality Document Number: 313701 |
| 27. Title: The transition to a predominantly urban world and its underpinnings. Author: Satterthwaite D Source: London, United Kingdom, International Institute for Environment and Development [IIED], 2007. 91 p. (Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series. Theme: Urban Change - 4) Abstract: This paper describes the dramatic changes in the size of the world's urban population and of its largest cities over the last 100 years. This includes the almost tenfold increase in the average size of the world's 100 largest cities between 1900 and 2000. It also describes the changing distribution of cities between regions. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | URBAN POPULATION | URBANIZATION | HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY | POPULATION GROWTH | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION PROJECTION | URBAN AREAS | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Urban Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 331351 |
| 28. Peer Reviewed Title: The forecast accuracy of Australian bureau of statistics national population projections. Author: Wilson T Source: Journal of Population Research. 2007 May;24(1):91-117. Abstract: This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naive model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AUSTRALIA | RESEARCH REPORT | VITAL STATISTICS | POPULATION PROJECTION | POPULATION FORECAST | ERROR SOURCES | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | MEASUREMENT | Developed Countries | Oceania | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Length of Life | Mortality | Migration Document Number: 323895 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Options for fertility policy transition in China. Author: Yi Z Source: Population and Development Review. 2007 Jun;33(2):215-246. Abstract: IN CHINA since the 1980s a dramatic decline in fertility rates combined with the entry of large numbers of young people into the labor force has resulted in a demographic dividend, arising from a low child dependency ratio, an elderly dependency ratio that is still not high, and a large labor force supply. Although the social and political costs of the fertility decline were high, the demographic dividend has contributed significantly to China's economic boom in the past 20 years. However, this dividend will disappear in about two decades. What would be the social and economic consequences of a continuation of China's current strict fertility control policy over the long run? Is it necessary to change the current policy? If so, what are the options and what course would be desirable and feasible? This article addresses these important questions. The unique features of this study include a comparative analysis of possible options for fertility policy transition based on consideration of demographic projections of population aging, elderly living arrangements, weighted total dependency ratios, pension deficits, labor force supply, the marriage squeeze, and economic costs. The first two sections summarize previous research and describe current debates in China concerning the options for fertility policy transition. In the third section, I discuss the methods and data sources for this study, and I describe five fertility policy scenarios that represent options under discussion in China. The fourth section compares the different fertility policy scenarios with respect to demographic trends and their likely socioeconomic consequences. Based on recent evidence, the fifth section describes the unexpected and adverse impact of the current 1.5-child policy on the sex ratio at birth and its implications for the marriage market. The sixth section analyzes the economic costs if China keeps its current fertility policy unchanged. The seventh section offers policy recommendations. In conclusion, I argue that China needs to start smoothly revising its current fertility policy now, before the demographic window of opportunity closes. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | LABOR FORCE | POPULATION POLICY | ECONOMIC FACTORS | SOCIAL CHANGE | POPULATION PROJECTION | SEX RATIO | Developing Countries | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Microeconomic Factors | Human Resources | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics Document Number: 313612 |
| 30. Peer Reviewed Title: President Nixon on problems of population growth. Source: Population and Development Review. 2006 Dec;32(4):771-782. Abstract: By the official estimate of the US Census Bureau, America's population crossed the 300 million mark on 17 October 2006. That day, although obviously bracketed by a generous error-term, was, unsurprisingly, occasion in the media for an outpouring of descriptions of the country's demographic path from the last similar benchmark 39 years earlier, when the US population reached 200 million. Projections for continued rapid population growth in the future were also matter-of-factly presented--an expected 400 million by 2043 with no stop in sight beyond that......The celebratory welcome to the arrival of the 300 millionth American is in remarkable contrast to the somber national soul-searching that followed the crossing of the 200 million benchmark in 1967. In the context of the unprecedented pace of global population growth and reflecting the shock of the unanticipated US baby boom, the desirability of indefinitely sustained US population growth was then commonly viewed as far from obvious: certainly it was seen as an issue calling for careful examination and analysis. The demand for assessing the national interest in this matter was articulated and given a major impetus by a Message to Congress issued by then President Richard M. Nixon on 18 July 1969. The full text of this document, drafted by the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan is included in the article......The message was primarily devoted to consideration of US population issues. It raised questions about the effects of the next 100 million Americans, expected "by the year 2000 or shortly thereafter," on the economy and society. Those questions, it stressed, must be answered with a new sense of urgency. "Perhaps the most dangerous element in the present situation is the fact that so few people are examining these questions from the viewpoint of the whole society." The message suggested that the Federal Government has "a special responsibility for defining these problems and for stimulating thoughtful responses." (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | INFLUENTIALS | GOVERNMENT | POPULATION GROWTH | CENSUS | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | POPULATION PROJECTION | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Knowledge Sources | Communication | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques Document Number: 310844 |
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