1.  Title: The role of sexually abstained groups in two-sex demographic and epidemic logistic models with non-linear mortality. Author: Maxin D; Milner FA Source: Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2009 Jun 7;258(3):389-402. Abstract: We describe several gender structured population models governed by logistic growth with non-linear death rate. We extend these models to include groups of people isolated from sexual activity and individuals exposed to a mild and long-lasting sexually transmitted disease, i.e. without disease-induced mortality and recovery. The transmission of the disease is modeled through formation/separation of heterosexual couples assuming that one infected individual automatically infects his/her partner. We are interested in how the non-reproductive class may change the demographic tendencies in the general population and whether they can curb the growth of the infected group while keeping the healthy one at acceptable levels. A comparison of the equilibrium total population size in the presence and the absence of the isolated class is also provided. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | THEORETICAL STUDIES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | EPIDEMIOLOGY | SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES | TRANSMISSION | ABSTINENCE | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | MARRIAGE | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Studies | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Public Health | Health | Reproductive Tract Infections | Infections | Diseases | Family Planning, Behavioral Methods | Family Planning | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Nuptiality Document Number: 342385 |
2.  Title: 2008 world population data sheet. Author: Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: Washington, D.C., PRB, 2008. 16 p. Abstract: This wall chart, the 2008 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau, includes demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world. In addition, it summarizes and compares the latest population estimates, projections, and other key indicators for all geopolitical entities with populations of 150,00 or more. As world population has risen from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6.7 billion in 2008, the proportion living in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean has expanded from 68 percent to more than 80 percent. India and China, with a billion-plus each in 2008, make up about 37 percent of the total. Projections for 2050 show this shift to developing countries continuing. Highlighted in this wall chart is naternal mortality in developing countries, the shift in population density from rural to urban areas, and mother's education and children's nutritional status. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | TABLES AND CHARTS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION SIZE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | FERTILITY RATE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | CHILD NUTRITION | Demographic Factors | Population | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Mortality | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Nutrition | Health Document Number: 328154 |
| 3. Title: World population highlights: Key findings from PRB's 2008 World Population Data Sheet. Author: Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: Population Bulletin. 2008 Sep;63(3):1-12. Abstract: This companion report to PRB's 2008 World Population Data Sheet highlights key findings from the data sheet on: world population trends, nutrition, environment, HIV/AIDS, urbanization, and migration. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | TECHNICAL REPORT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION SIZE | MATERNAL MORTALITY | FERTILITY RATE | CHILD NUTRITION | MIGRATION | HIV | AIDS | WATER QUALITY | WATER SUPPLY | URBANIZATION | Demographic Factors | Population | Geographic Factors | Research Methodology | Mortality | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Nutrition | Health | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Water | Natural Resources | Environment | Urban Population Distribution Document Number: 328155 |
| 4. Title: Socio-demographic variables associated with AIDS epidemic: evidence from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the African countries. Author: Al-Asfahani AM; Girvan JT Source: African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development. 2008 Sep;8(1):1-16. Abstract: The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) has been spreading rapidly worldwide for the past two decades, causing a variety of symptoms known as the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), which has killed millions of people, and which looks likely to kill millions more. Generally, HIV infection rates are currently decreasing in several countries, but globally the number of people living with HIV/AIDS continues to rise both geographically and among specific demographic groups. For example, despite the remarkable efforts that are being made throughout Africa to avert the spread of HIV and reduce its impact, the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa continues to spread obstinately. Among the vexing issues related to the AIDS epidemic are the insufficient provisions of planners, policy makers and the public in general in curbing its devastating consequences to the health sector, households, schools, workplaces, economies and the quality of life as a whole. This paper presents information on the association between socio-demographic variables and AIDS prevalence in some African and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The studied variables included size of population; population density; urbanization; average life expectancy; average female life expectancy; average male life expectancy; literacy; female and male literacy; population increase; infant mortality; average daily calorie intake; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; religion; fertility rates; death rates; and AIDS-rate. Several parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques were adopted including Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney and Chi-square tests. Insignificant difference in the means of AIDS-rates between the OECD countries and the African group was found, but the difference was significant when the USA was excluded from the analysis. As initially expected, life expectancy in the OECD countries was significantly higher than that of the African group while the average rates of infant mortality, population growth, fertility, and death were significantly higher within the African group. Significant association between AIDS-rate and life expectancy was only found for African males, while association with fertility, infant mortality, population density, and calorie intakes was statistically insignificant. No clear difference between urban and rural areas with respect to AIDS-rates was discerned. Communities of Muslims were less subject to the AIDS problem. In conclusion, future studies should devote more attention toward impacts on HIV/AIDS prevalence of other equally important variables such as access to social and health care services, cultural norms, ethnic diversity, and educational facilities. Language: English Keywords: AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | HIV INFECTIONS | HIV TRANSMISSION | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | LIFE EXPECTANCY | LITERACY | INFANT MORTALITY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | QUALITY OF LIFE | RISK FACTORS | Developing Countries | Data Analysis | Research Methodology | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Population | Urban Population Distribution | Length of Life | Mortality | Demographic Factors | Educational Status | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Social Welfare | Biology Document Number: 322509 |
| 5. Peer Reviewed Title: Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations. Author: Alho JM Source: Demography. 2008 Aug;45(3):641-650. Abstract: Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | MIGRATION | FERTILITY CHANGES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | AGE FACTORS | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Characteristics | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 327986 |
| 6. Title: A rural Ethiopian population undergoing epidemiological transition over a generation: Butajira from 1987 to 2004. Author: Berhane Y; Wall S; Fantahun M; Emmelin A; Mekonnen W Source: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 2008 Jun;36(4):436-441. Abstract: The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors. A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years. The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials. This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | MORTALITY | MORTALITY DETERMINANTS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | EPIDEMIOLOGY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Public Health | Health Document Number: 327582 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: An assessment of China's fertility level using the variable-r method. Author: Cai Y Source: Demography. 2008 May;45(2):271-281. Abstract: The fertility level in China is a matter of uncertainty and controversy. This paper applies Preston and Coale's (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China. By using data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses as well as annual population change surveys, the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement. (author's) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | FERTILITY RATE | UNDERCOUNT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Error Sources | Measurement Document Number: 327034 |
| 8. Title: Population, health, and environment issues in the Philippines. A profile of Calabarzon (Region 4-A). Author: De La Paz MC; Colson L Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], Population, Health, and Environment Program, 2008 Oct. 6 p. Abstract: Linking population, health, and environment (PHE) issues is becoming increasingly important for the Philippines, where natural resources and public health and well-being are often negatively affected by factors such as population pressures and poverty. Understanding these connections--including the economic and social context in which they occur--and addressing PHE issues in an integrated manner is critical for achieving sustainable development. This regional PHE profile highlights key population, health, and environment indicators and important development challenges for the Calabarzon Region (Region 4-A). The profile is designed to help educators, policymakers, and community leaders identify key threats to sustainable development and explore possible approaches to addressing them. This profile is part of a series covering select regions of the Philippines, and is intended as a companion publication to the Population Reference Bureau's 2006 data sheet, Making the Link in the Philippines: Population, Health, and the Environment. Language: English Keywords: PHILIPPINES | RESEARCH REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | EVALUATION INDEXES | POPULATION | ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION SIZE | URBANIZATION | FAMILY PLANNING | NATURAL RESOURCES | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Environment | Economic Factors | Demographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Estimation Techniques | Health Document Number: 323137 |
| 9. Title: Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Author: de Sherbinin A; VanWey LK; McSweeney K; Aggarwal R; Babbieri A Source: Global Environmental Change. 2008 Feb;18(1):38-53. Abstract: This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | LITERATURE REVIEW | RURAL POPULATION | HOUSEHOLDS | FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | LIVELIHOOD | AGRICULTURE | ENVIRONMENT | FERTILITY CHANGES | MIGRATION | MORBIDITY | MORTALITY | NATURAL RESOURCES | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Family Research | Resources | Organization and Administration | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Fertility | Diseases Document Number: 325787 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: Twenty years' demographic change in sedentes and migrants of an international migrant-sending community in Tonga. Author: Fukuyama S; Watanabe C; Umezaki M; Ohtsuka R Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008;:1-11. Abstract: In the Kingdom of Tonga, migration to overseas developed countries has prevailed. To elucidate the effects of migration on population dynamics, an interview survey was conducted in the migrant-sending community of Kolovai, in the outer region of Tongatapu Island. All births, deaths, marriages and in- and out-migrations that took place between 1983 and 2002 were recorded for all members of the 'Kolovai population', consisting of persons who had lived in this community for at least a one-year period during this 20 years. The 'Kolovai population' members, numbering 1184 (564 males and 620 females), were divided into three groups based on residence at the end of each year, i.e. Kolovai (called KK), other places in Tonga (KT) or overseas countries (KO). The KK population decreased from 774 in 1982 to 570 in 2002, owing mostly to an increase of 167 persons as the natural balance and a decrease of 324 persons as the balance of international migration. Comparison of total fertility rate (TFR) between KK and KO women revealed that the mean TFR of the former decreased from 3.460 in the earlier 10-year period (1983-1992) to 2.240 in the later 10-year period (1993-2002), while that of the latter was more than 3.5 in both 10-year periods. This difference was largely due to the decrease in the proportion married among KK women. If the current trends of international migration and fertility continue, the population of Kolovai will be reduced and its age composition will become cylinder-shaped in the near future. (author's) Language: English Keywords: TONGA | RESEARCH REPORT | SURVEYS | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | FERTILITY CHANGES | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | Developing Countries | Oceania | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Migration | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 327010 |
| 11. Peer Reviewed Title: Demographic and dispersal constraints for domestic infestation by non-domicilated Chagas disease vectors in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Author: Gourbiere S; Dumonteil E; Rabinovich JE; Minkoue R; Menu F Source: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2008 Jan;78(1):133-139. Abstract: Chagas disease is one of the most important diseases in Latin America. Insecticides have been sprayed to control domiciliated vectors. However, some triatomine species are not strictly domiciliated, and the transmission risk posed by immigrants is identified as a major challenge. The design of new control strategies requires disentangling the importance of demography and immigration in vector occurrence inside houses. Using a population dynamics model, we confirmed that dispersal can explain satisfactorily the domestic abundance of Triatoma dimidiata in Yucatan, Mexico. A surprisingly low fecundity was also required (no more than one to two female offspring per female per trimester). A wide range of survival probabilities was possible, although the best fit was obtained for a very low immature survival (less than or equal to 0.01/trimester). Our model predicted that domestic populations are not sustainable, and up to 90% of the individuals found in houses are immigrants. We discuss the potential of different strategies to control the transmission of Chagas disease by non-domiciliated vectors. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MEXICO | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | ANIMALS | CHAGAS DISEASE | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | INSECTS | VECTOR CONTROL | POPULATION DYNAMICS | SEASONAL VARIATION | North America | Americas | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Natural Resources | Environment | Parasitic Diseases | Diseases | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Population | Disease Transmission Control | Prevention and Control Document Number: 308628 |
| 12. Peer Reviewed Title: The environmental dimensions of the HIV / AIDS pandemic: a call for scholarship and evidence-based intervention. Author: Hunter LM; De Souza RM; Twine W Source: Population and Environment. 2008 May;29(3-5):103-107. Abstract: Clearly the topics covered within this special issue on "HIV/AIDS and the Natural Environment" are varied, timely and of policy import. Given Population and Environment's focus on scholarship exploring the reciprocal links between population, natural resources, and the natural environment, explicit consideration of HIV/AIDS as a factor critical in shaping contemporary demographic dynamics is most appropriate. Further, given the dramatic impacts of HIV/AIDS particularly in many regions of the world characterized by high levels of natural resource dependence, explicit consideration of the environment dimensions of HIV/AIDS is also of great policy importance. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: BOTSWANA | LESOTHO | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | HIV INFECTIONS | AIDS | CAUSES OF DEATH | FOOD SECURITY | STIGMA | AWARENESS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Factors | Population | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Mortality | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment | Social Problems | Sociocultural Factors | Knowledge Document Number: 327911 |
| 13. Title: Understanding women's empowerment: a comparative analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data. Author: Kishor S; Subaiya L Source: Calverton, Maryland, Macro International, 2008 Oct. 225 p. (USAID Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00DHS Comparative Reports No. 20) Abstract: This report examines the distribution and correlates of two different dimensions of the empowerment of currently married women age 15-49 in 23 developing countries. These dimensions are women’s participation in household decisionmaking and their attitudes regarding specific inequalities in gender roles. Language: English Keywords: DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | POPULATION | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | FAMILY PLANNING | AGE FACTORS | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | HEALTH | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | FERTILITY | PERSONALITY | PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS | BEHAVIOR | VIRAL DISEASES | DISEASES | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | PREVENTION AND CONTROL | Contraception Document Number: 329997 |
| 14. Peer Reviewed Title: Demographic differentials and demographic integration of Turkish and Kurdish populations in Turkey. Author: Koc I; Hancioglu A; Cavlin A Source: Population Research and Policy Review. 2008 Aug;27(4):447-457. Abstract: The objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to provide estimates of the total populations and spatial distributions of different language groups in Turkey, (2) to test whether the commonly held belief that Turkish-speaking and Kurdish-speaking populations are "actors" of different demographic regimes is true, and (3) to assess whether a process of integration, in the form of intermarriage of Turks and Kurds is under way in Turkey. Data come mainly from the 2003 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS-2003). Based on the assumption that the mother tongue composition of women is also representative of that of the whole population, the results of the TDHS-2003 imply that of the population of Turkey, 83% are Turkish-speaking, 14% are Kurdish-speaking, 2% are Arabic-speaking and the remaining 1% belong to other language groups. Results show that despite intensive internal migration movements in the last 50 years, strong demographic differentials exist between Turkish and Kurdish-speaking populations, and that the convergence of the two groups does not appear to be a process under way. Turks and Kurds do indeed appear to be actors of different demographic regimes, at different stages of demographic and health transition processes. (author's) Language: English Keywords: TURKEY | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | LANGUAGE | CULTURAL BACKGROUND | ETHNIC GROUPS | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | Europe, Southeastern | Europe | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Demographic Factors | Population | Geographic Factors | Communication | Fertility | Contraception | Family Planning | Health | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 325865 |
| 15. Title: The impact of future demographic trends in Europe, 2005 -- 2050. Author: Kupiszewski M; Bijak J; Nowok B Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:147-183. Abstract: The objective of the paper is to examine the future of populations within the Council of Europe member states, identify the main trends and discuss their policy implications. The analysis focuses on the impact that future demographic trends will have on the following social domains: education, the labour market, health care and care of the elderly and social protection. The study aims to be policy-oriented and to provide an overview of future demographic trends for 2005-2050 in the Council of Europe member states, as well as presenting an analysis related to selected policies and an interpretation of these trends. The analysis of population dynamics in the coming 45 years is based on the United Nations population projection of 2005. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | OLDER ADULTS | LABOR FORCE | POPULATION FORECAST | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | SOCIAL POLICY | EDUCATION | EMPLOYMENT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHY | QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE | SOCIAL PROTECTION | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Social Sciences | Science | Health Services Evaluation | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326071 |
| 16. Title: The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in Sub-Saharan Africa. Author: le Blanc D; Perez R Source: Ecological Economics. 2008 Jun 15;66(2-3):319-336. Abstract: This paper estimates the relationship between average rainfall and population density in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to assess the consequences of climate and demographic changes in terms of future water stress in that region. Geographic Information System (GIS) data on density and rainfall and climate change scenarios are combined in order to identify areas which will be subject to increased pressures stemming from excessive population, given their precipitation levels. We first describe the empirical relationship existing between average yearly rainfall and density over sub-Saharan Africa. The limit of 900 mm of annual rainfall appears to define the threshold below which water constitutes a binding constraint to higher densities. Above that threshold, density and rainfall are not spatially correlated. In a second stage, we identify areas subject to water stress. In our framework, those are defined as zones belonging to the right end of the distribution of densities conditional on average rainfall. In a last step, localized population projections and changes in rainfall predicted by two mainstream climate change scenarios are utilized to assess the respective impacts of those two factors on the changes in extent and distribution of high-stress zones over the continent between 2000 and 2050. If population growth follows projected trends, density increases across the continent should lead to a significant increase in the extent of such zones, especially around the Sahel belt and in Eastern Africa. The impact of changes in rainfall is more difficult to assess, because climate models differ locally as regards projections of yearly rainfall, especially in intermediate zones such as the Sahel. If, according to the predictions of most climate models, the Sahel were to experience average rainfall increases, these would ease, though not offset totally, the pressure stemming from demographic growth in that region. In contrast, in most of Eastern Africa, predicted drops in average rainfall would work in the same direction as demographic changes to increase the pressure on significant parts of the territory. In Southern Africa, demographic stagnation is likely to mitigate significantly the impact of climate change. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | CLIMATE | ENVIRONMENT | POPULATION DENSITY | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WATER SUPPLY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION PRESSURE | Developing Countries | Africa | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Population | Natural Resources | Demographic Factors | Carrying Capacity Document Number: 327066 |
| 17. Title: Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium. Author: Lee HF; Fok L; Zhang DD Source: Climatic Change. 2008 May;88(2):131-156. Abstract: The climate-population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature-population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature-population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate-society relationship. (author's) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH | THEORETICAL MODELS | CLIMATE | POPULATION GROWTH | POPULATION DYNAMICS | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | GLOBAL WARMING | POPULATION PRESSURE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Environment | Demographic Factors | Population | Carrying Capacity | Natural Resources Document Number: 326400 |
| 18. Title: Managing migration: The global challenge. Author: Martin P; Zurcher G Source: Population Bulletin. 2008 Mar;63(1):1-22. Abstract: The number of international migrants is at an all-time high. There were 191 million migrants in 2005, which means that 3 percent of the world's people left their country of birth or citizenship for a year or more. The number of international migrants in industrialized countries more than doubled between 1985 and 2005, from almost 55 million to 120 million. However, most of the world's 6.6 billion people never cross a national border; most live and die near their place of birth. Those who cross national borders usually move to nearby countries, for example, from Mexico to the United States, or from Turkey to Germany. The largest flow of migrants is from less developed to more developed countries. In 2005, 62 million migrants from developing countries moved to more developed countries, but almost as many migrants (61 million) moved from one developing country to another, such as from Indonesia to Malaysia. Large flows of people also move from one industrialized country to another, from Canada to theUnited States, for example, and much smaller flows move from more developed to less developed countries, such as people from Japan who work in or retire to Thailand. The international community believes that international migration should be voluntary, and has tried to minimize "forced migration," whether motivated by persecution or economic deprivation at home. The United Nation's 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights asserts that "everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country." However, the right to emigrate does not give migrants a right to immigrate, and most migrants are not welcomed unconditionally into the countries to which they move. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | MIGRANTS | REFUGEES | GOVERNMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | SETTLEMENT AND RESETTLEMENT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | REMITTANCES | BORDER CROSSING | ECONOMIC FACTORS | MIGRATION POLICY | Migration | Demographic Factors | Population | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy Document Number: 325289 |
| 19. Title: Decomposing poverty changes in Zambia: Growth, inequality and population dynamics. Author: Mulenga S; Van Campenhout B Source: African Development Review. 2008 Sep;20(2):284-304. Abstract: During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ZAMBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | SURVEYS | POVERTY | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION | URBANIZATION | INEQUALITIES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Sampling Studies | Studies | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Migration | Demographic Factors | Population | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors Document Number: 328140 |
| 20. Title: The population of France in 2007. Author: Pison G Source: Population and Societies. 2008 Mar;(443):1-4. Abstract: The French demographic situation is one of both continuity and change. Examining developments in 2007, Gilles Pison draws our attention to three key trends: the remarkable increase in life expectancy since 2003, year of the deadly summer heat wave, the growing popularity of heterosexual civil partnerships (PACS), and the rising proportion of babies born outside marriage, who now account for more than half of all births. (author's) Language: English Keywords: FRANCE | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | LIFE EXPECTANCY | CONSENSUAL UNION | ILLEGITIMACY | FERTILITY RATE | CLIMATE | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Migration | Length of Life | Mortality | Nuptiality | Social Problems | Sociocultural Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Environment Document Number: 325888 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969 - 1989? Author: Spoorenberg T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Apr 18;18(10):285-310. Abstract: The closure of Mongolia to the international community during the 20th century resulted in a dearth of available data and analytic demographic studies. In the absence of mortality analysis during the socialist period, this paper proposes the use of indirect census-based techniques to estimate mortality levels and trends of the last two socialist decades (1969-1989). Due to census data quality and choice of model life table, results are not homogeneous. The respective effects of these two components are discussed in order to understand the results. However, despite these shortcomings, it is shown that during the last socialist decades in Mongolia, the health conditions of the population deteriorated. The Mongolian pattern is relatively similar to the situation documented for the ex-socialist republics. Causes of this similarity are discussed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MONGOLIA | RESEARCH REPORT | MORTALITY CHANGES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | CENSUS | RELIABILITY | HEALTH SERVICES | HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Mortality | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Measurement | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Management | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326095 |
| 22. Title: The demography of South Asia from the 1950s to the 2000s: a summary of changes and a statistical assessment. Author: Veron J Source: Population-E. 2008;63(1):9-90. Abstract: The countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) cover less than 4% of the Earth's surface, but their combined population of some 1.6 billion inhabitants in 2007 represents nearly a quarter of the world total. India, the largest country in the region, alone has 1.17 billion inhabitants. This chronicle charts the main demographic trends since the 1950s, which are explained in part by the countries' diverse levels of development. Their demographic transitions also exhibit broad diversity. There is no single transition model specific to the region, just as there is no single transition in India, as the comparison of its states makes clear. Except in Sri Lanka, where the process is complete, the fertility transition is ongoing, and the mortality transition is in general very advanced. The potential for demographic growth remains high in South Asia, and the United Nations expects the region's population to grow by 600 million inhabitants up to 2040. The future course of demographic change has major implications for development, since most of the countries need to reduce poverty and raise educational levels while at the same time coping with rapid urban growth and addressing environmental issues. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFGHANISTAN | BANGLADESH | BHUTAN | INDIA | MALDIVES | NEPAL | PAKISTAN | SRI LANKA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION GROWTH | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | MIGRATION | FERTILITY CHANGES | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | MORTALITY CHANGES | URBANIZATION | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Factors | Fertility | Contraception | Family Planning | Mortality | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors Document Number: 327925 |
| 23. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility rates and gross national income per capital. Source: CMAJ. Canadian Medical Association Journal. 2007 Oct 9;177(8):846. Abstract: Recently the World Health Organization reported 2005 fertility rates per woman and gross national incomes per capita from its 193 member countries. Figure 1 shows these data for the 20 countries with the highest and lowest fertility rates for which gross national income data were available and for the G7 countries (Canada, United States, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan) for comparison. Countries with the highest fertility rates per woman tended to have a much lower gross national income per capita than countries with the lowest fertility rates. They also tended to be or to have recently been politically unstable. (The fertility rates per woman for Timor-Leste and Afghanistan were 7.8 and 7.3 respectively but are not included in Figure 1 because data for their gross national income were not available.) A fertility rate per woman of just over 2.0-2.1 is recognized as being necessary to maintain a country's population size. Countries with a rate below this, which included most of the G7countries, must rely on immigration if this is their intent. (full text) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | TECHNICAL REPORT | WHO | FERTILITY RATE | INCOME | POPULATION DYNAMICS | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 321152 |
| 24. Title: UNICEF executive director appreciates Viet Nam's achievements on child protection. Source: Vietnam Population News. 2007 Apr-Jun;(43):3-6. Abstract: On 5 May 2007, Madame Le Thi Thu, Minister-Chair-woman of VCPFC, and heads of ministries and sectors warmly welcomed Ms. Ann M. Veneman, UNICEF's Executive Director. At the meeting, Madame Thu gave a brief on Viet Nam's achievements in child care, education and protection during the past few years and future work orientation. Children's living standards have been unceasingly improved, children's rights have been step by step met in terms of physical, intellectual, spiritual and morality. She hoped to receive the efficient support of UNICEF. Ms. Ann M. Veneman is impressed by Viet Nam's achievements. She said that UNICEF would have focus to HIV/AIDS, childhood injury, and under-five underweight. She recommended Viet Nam to pay more attention to causes of those issues, especially setting up databases and provide data/indicators that can be compared with other countries in the region. During her visit, Ms. Ann M. Veneman also met with Government officials to discuss about related matters. She said Viet Nam is likely to be one of the countries to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets, with some of these targets ahead of 2015. Despite the significant progress achieved, there remain challenges, such as disparity between the rich and poor, impacts of HIV on children and protecting children from injury and harm. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: VIETNAM | PROGRESS REPORT | RECOMMENDATIONS | POPULATION STATISTICS | CHILDREN | POPULATION | UNICEF | CHILD SURVIVAL | CHILD CARE | STANDARD OF LIVING | CHILD HEALTH | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | AGE DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Survivorship | Length of Life | Mortality | Child Rearing | Behavior | Economic Factors | Health | Social Policy | Policy | Family Planning Document Number: 308829 |
| 25. Title: World population highlights: key findings from PRB's 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Author: Population Reference Bureau [PRB] Source: Population Bulletin. 2007 Sep;62(3):1-12. Abstract: We entered the 20th century with a population of 1.6 billion people. We entered the 21st century with 6.1 billion people. And in 2007, world population is 6.6 billion. The increase in the size of the human population in the last half-century is unprecedented. And nearly all of the growth is occurring in the less developed countries. Currently, 80 million people are being added every year in less developed countries, compared with about 1.6 million in more developed countries. While the less developed countries will keep growing, the more developed countries may grow slowly or not at all. Population change is linked to economic development, education, the environment, the status of women, epidemics and other health threats, and access to family planning information and services. All of these factors interact with every facet of our lives, regardless of where we live. It is remarkable that, despite many new developments over the past 50 years, one fact looks very much the same: Populations are growing most rapidly where such growth can be afforded the least. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | TABLES AND CHARTS | SUMMARY REPORT | ANNUAL REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | POPULATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION GROWTH | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | MALNUTRITION | ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION | HIV INFECTIONS | MIGRATION | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Health | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Nutrition Disorders | Diseases | Environment | Viral Diseases Document Number: 319696 |
| 26. Title: Financing the ICPD Programme of Action: data for 2004, estimates for 2005/2006. Author: United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] Source: New York, New York, UNFPA, [2007], [8] p. Abstract: Population dynamics and reproductive health are central to development and must be an integral part of development planning and poverty reduction strategies. Promoting the goals of the United Nations Conferences, including those of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), is vital for laying the foundation to reduce poverty in many of the poorest countries. At the ICPD in 1994, the international community agreed that US $17 billion would be needed in 2000 and $18.5 billion in 2005 to finance programmes in the area of population dynamics, reproductive health, including family planning, maternal health and the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as programmes that address the collection, analysis and dissemination of population data. Two thirds of the required amount would be mobilized by developing countries themselves and one third, $6.1 billion in 2005, was to come from the international community. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | TABLES AND CHARTS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH | PLANNING | POVERTY | FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES | EXPENDITURES | FAMILY PLANNING | HIV | AIDS | SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES | RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT | PROGRAM ACTIVITIES | Demographic Factors | Population | Health | Organization and Administration | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Reproductive Tract Infections | Infections | Technology | Programs Document Number: 318269 |
| 27. Title: Prevention and medication of HIV / AIDS: The case of Botswana. Author: Almeder C; Feichtinger G; Sanderson WC; Veliov VM Source: Central European Journal of Operations Research. 2007 Mar;15(1):47-61. Abstract: In this paper we developed a mathematical model which allows estimating and projecting the effects of prevention and treatment programs on the total population size, HIV-induced deaths, and life expectancies. Considering only the female population we project the changes of the demographic developments and the situation of HIV/AIDS for Botswana up to 2060. Our mathematical model is used to project the female population development considering their age-structure. Treatment programs are included through selecting a price for medication (or giving it for free). Prevention programs consist of two parts: school-based programs which try to change risky behavior and instantaneous prevention (e.g., free condoms) which has only a short-time effect on the infection risk. The main conclusions drawn from our results are that prevention-only programs always yield the fastest decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Adding a medication program reduces the efficiency of the prevention interventions regarding prevalence,but it reduces the number of HIV-induced deaths and increases life expectancies. (author's) Language: English Keywords: BOTSWANA | RESEARCH REPORT | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | WOMEN | HIV PREVENTION | AGE FACTORS | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | LIFE EXPECTANCY | FEES | INTERVENTIONS | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | HIV | Length of Life | Mortality | Financial Activities | Economic Factors | Programs | Organization and Administration Document Number: 320489 |
| 28. Title: Social organization, population, and land use. Author: Axinn WG; Ghimire DJ Source: Ann Arbor, Michigan, University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research, Population Studies Center, 2007 Jan. 39 p. (Population Studies Center Research Report No. 07-617) Abstract: We examine the population-environment relationship at the local community level by focusing on the impact of population changes on changes in land use. We construct a theoretical framework for the study of microlevel population-environment relationships that guides the appropriate specification of empirical models and emphasizes the multidimensional nature of population impacts on land use. We use newly available longitudinal measures of local land use changes, local population dynamics, and community context from the Nepalese Himalayas to provide empirical estimates of our theoretical model. This empirical investigation reveals that variations in model specification yield different substantive conclusions and that multiple dimensions of population change impact land use. Local birth rates have a large effect on local land use changes that is not explained by changes in population size or structure. This intriguing finding is consistent with the hypothesis that fertility influences household consumption patterns which in turn impact land use changes at the local level. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NEPAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | THEORETICAL MODELS | LAND AND RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT | POPULATION DYNAMICS | ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT | BIRTH RATE | SOCIAL CHANGE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Rural Development | Economic Factors | Demographic Factors | Population | Environment | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 322565 |
| 29. Title: Demography of the tribal groups of Rajasthan: 1. Population structure. Author: Bhasin MK; Nag S Source: Anthropologist. 2007 Jan;9(1):1-37. Abstract: This paper presents the population composition and details of the economic, socio-cultural, physical environmental attributes of the households of the major Scheduled Tribes of Rajasthan, namely, Sahariya, Mina, Bhil, Kathodi, Damor and Garasia belonging to five districts, namely, Baran, Sawai Madhopur, Udaipur, Dungarpur and Sirohi in Rajasthan. All the measures of population composition indicate the demographic backwardness of the Scheduled Tribes, in general. Individually speaking, however, the position of Minas, a land owning economically well-off Scheduled Tribe, appears relatively better. The paper also includes some comparisons of the findings with the estimates of the 1991 census. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | CENSUS | TRIBES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | ECOLOGY | BIOLOGY | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Cultural Background | Demographic Factors | Population | Economic Factors | Environment Document Number: 320530 |
| 30. Peer Reviewed Title: High fertility Gambians in low fertility Spain: The dynamics of child accumulation across transnational space. Author: Bledsoe C; Houle R; Sow P Source: Demographic Research. 2007 May 3;16(12):375-412. Abstract: Based on an analysis of the Spanish census and the January 1, 2005 municipal register and on exploratory fieldwork in Catalonia, this paper combines ethnography and demography, in conjunction with current Spanish reunification law, to examine the dynamics of what appears to be high fertility among Gambian immigrants living in Spain. We suggest that this high fertility rate reflects several things. One is the high costs of living in Spain for an unskilled, often-undocumented, but also relatively longstanding Sub-Saharan group from a homeland with high rates of fertility: a homeland with which close ties remain vital for migrants in highly marginal conditions. Another is the replacement, in some cases, of older wives by younger ones from Africa, resulting in high rates of reproduction for short slices of time by a circulating pool of young women. We focus, however, on the role of Spanish and European policies themselves in shaping these numbers, particularly those policies that place restrictions onthe free movement of people. We conclude that the most interesting demographic facet of this population may not be high fertility but rather the paradoxical dynamics of child accumulation in particular geographic regions as an artifact of Spanish law itself. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GAMBIA | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | WOMEN | FERTILITY RATE | FAMILY SIZE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | AGE FACTORS | POLICY | MIGRATION | POPULATION DYNAMICS | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Population Characteristics | Political Factors Document Number: 313481 |
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