1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Author: Reniers G; Araya T; Davey G; Nagelkerke N; Berhane Y; Coutinho R; Sanders EJ Source: AIDS. 2009 Feb 20;23(4):511-8. Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. METHODS: To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20-64 years) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard, we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The positive predictive value and sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001-2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9 and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2 for men and 42.9% for women. Compared with the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated to be between 56.8 and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. CONCLUSION: Five years into the ART programme, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more sex balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists. Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | URBAN POPULATION | AIDS | DEATH RATE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | CAUSES OF DEATH | AUTOPSY | SEX FACTORS | MORTALITY DECLINE | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | HIV | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 341166 |
2.  Title: Is there dowry inflation in South Asia? Author: Arunachalam R; Logan T Source: Cambridge, Massachusetts, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008 Mar. [42] p. (NBER Working Paper No. 13905) Abstract: This paper is the first systematic attempt to measure the existence and degree of dowry inflation in South Asia. The popular press and scholarly literature have assumed dowry inflation in South Asia for some time, and there are now a number of theoretical papers that have attempted to explain the rise of dowries in South Asia. Despite these advances, there has been no systematic study of dowry inflation. Using large-sample retrospective survey data from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal, we assess the empirical evidence for dowry inflation. We find no evidence that real dowry amounts have systematically increased over time in South Asia. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ASIA, SOUTHERN | RESEARCH REPORT | RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | KAP SURVEYS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | EVER MARRIED | DOWRY | INFLATION | CASTE | Developing Countries | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Theoretical Models | Data Analysis | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Macroeconomic Factors | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 325672 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: Lifetime abortion rate in Iran is estimated to be one per four women. Author: Ball H Source: International Family Planning Perspectives. 2008 Sep;34(3):147. Abstract: In Iran, where abortion is severely restricted by law, married women aged 15-49 have an estimated 73,000 abortions per year, according to a recent analysis of nationally representative data.1 This translates to 0.26 lifetime abortions per woman. However, the abortion rate varies widely among Iran's provinces, depending largely on regional levels of religiosity and modern contraceptive use. The data used to estimate abortion rates and levels come mainly from a subsample of 87,248 married women aged 15-49 who completed the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey. The women provided information on social and demographic characteristics (including fertility), as well as on factors affecting their reproductive health. Because abortions are difficult to obtain in Iran and are often performed illegally, accurate data on the procedure's incidence were unavailable; thus, the researchers used the so-called residual method to estimate the abortion rate. In this approach, the abortion rate is calculated from a formula that incorporates women's theoretical maximum fertility rate (15.3 children per woman), the total fertility rate for Iran (2.0 children per woman), contraceptive use, postpartum infecundability, and seasonal and absolute spousal separation (due primarily to work-related migration). This rate was then applied to 1996 census data to generate an estimate of the incidence of abortion. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: IRAN | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | ABORTION RATE | ABORTION LAW | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | ISLAM | AGE FACTORS | RISK FACTORS | Middle East | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Data Analysis | Estimation Techniques | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Religion | Population Characteristics | Biology Document Number: 322605 Notification |
| 4. Title: Adherence to antiretroviral therapy in young children in Cape Town, South Africa, measured by medication return and caregiver self-report: a prospective cohort study. Author: Davies MA; Boulle A; Fakir T; Nuttall J; Eley B Source: BMC Pediatrics. 2008;8:34. Abstract: BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) dramatically improves outcomes for children in Africa; however excellent adherence is required for treatment success. This study describes the utility of different measures of adherence in detecting lapses in infants and young children in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of 122 HIV-infected children commenced on ART, adherence was measured monthly during the first year of treatment by medication return (MR) for both syrups and tablets/capsules. A questionnaire was administered to caregivers after 3 months of treatment to assess experience with giving medication and self-reported adherence. Viral and immune response to treatment were assessed at the end of one year and associations with measured adherence determined. RESULTS: Medication was returned for 115/122 (94%) children with median age (IQR) of 37 (16-61) months. Ninety-one (79%) children achieved annual average MR adherence > or = 90%. This was an important covariate associated with viral suppression after adjustment for disease severity (OR = 5.5 [95%CI: 0.8-35.6], p = 0.075), however was not associated with immunological response to ART. By 3 months on ART, 13 (10%) children had deceased and 11 (10%) were lost to follow-up. Questionnaires were completed by 87/98 (90%) of caregivers of those who remained in care. Sensitivity of poor reported adherence (missing > or = 1 dose in the previous 3 days) for MR adherence <90% was only 31.8% (95% CI: 10.7%-53.0%). Caregivers of 33/87 (38.4%) children reported difficulties with giving medication, most commonly poor palatability (21.8%). Independent socio-demographic predictors of MR adherence > or = 90% were secondary education of caregivers (OR = 4.49; 95%CI: 1.10-18.24) and access to water and electricity (OR = 2.65; 95%CI: 0.93-7.55). Taking ritonavir was negatively associated with MR adherence > or = 90% (OR = 0.37; 95%CI: 0.13-1.02). CONCLUSION: Excellent adherence to ART is possible in African infants and young children and the relatively simple low technology measure of adherence by MR strongly predicts viral response. Better socio-economic status and more palatable regimens are associated with better adherence. Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | PROSPECTIVE STUDIES | COHORT ANALYSIS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | KAP SURVEYS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CHILDREN | USER COMPLIANCE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | AIDS PREVENTION | HOME CARE | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Population | Behavior | HIV | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | AIDS | Care and Support | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 328598 |
| 5. Peer Reviewed Title: Risk factors for poor virological outcome at 12 months in a workplace-based antiretroviral therapy programme in South Africa: a cohort study. Author: Fielding KL; Charalambous S; Stenson AL; Pemba LF; Martin DJ; Wood R; Churchyard GJ; Grant AD Source: BMC Infectious Diseases. 2008;8:93. Abstract: BACKGROUND: Reasons for the variation in reported treatment outcomes from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in developing countries are not clearly defined. METHODS: Among ART-naive individuals in a workplace ART programme in South Africa we determined virological outcomes at 12 months, and risk factors for suboptimal virological outcome, defined as plasma HIV-1 viral load > or = 400 copies/ml. RESULTS: Among 1760 individuals starting ART before July 2004, 1172 were in follow-up at 12 months of whom 953 (81%) had a viral load measurement (median age 41 yrs, 96% male, median baseline CD4 count 156 x 10(6)/l). 71% (681/953) had viral load < 400 copies/ml at 12 months. In a multivariable analysis, independent predictors of suboptimal virological outcome at 12 months were <1 log decrease in viral load at six weeks (odds ratio [OR] 4.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.56-8.68), viral load at baseline (OR 3.63 [95% CI 1.88-7.00] and OR 3.54 [95% CI 1.79-7.00] for 10,001-100,000 and >100,000 compared to < or = 10,000 copies/ml, respectively), adherence at six weeks (OR 3.50 [95% CI 1.92-6.35]), WHO stage (OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.28-3.34] and OR 2.03 [95% CI 1.14-3.62] for stage 3 and 4 compared to stage 1-2, respectively) and site of ART delivery. Site of delivery remained an independent risk factor even after adjustment for individual level factors. At 6 weeks, of 719 patients with self-reported adherence and viral load, 72 (10%) reported 100% adherence but had <1 log decrease in viral load; conversely, 60 (8%) reported <100% adherence but had > or = 1 log decrease in viral load. CONCLUSION: Virological response at six weeks after ART start was the strongest predictor of suboptimal virological outcome at 12 months, and may identify individuals who need interventions such as additional adherence support. Self reported adherence was less strongly associated but identified different patients compared with viral load at 6 weeks. Site of delivery had an important influence on virological outcomes; factors atthe health system level which influence outcome need further investigation to guide development of effective ART programmes. Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | CLINICAL RESEARCH | COHORT ANALYSIS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | EMPLOYMENT-BASED SERVICES | HIV INFECTIONS | USER COMPLIANCE | RISK FACTORS | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Data Analysis | Viral Diseases | Diseases | HIV | Programs | Organization and Administration | Behavior | Biology Document Number: 328296 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Improved data, methods and tools for the 2007 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections. Author: Ghys PD; Walker N; McFarland W; Miller R; Garnett GP Source: Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008;84(Suppl 1):i1-i4. Abstract: This introductory article refers to the journal supplement that assembles important new data relating to several assumptions used for the new HIV and AIDS estimates. The collection of methodological papers in the supplement, aim to provide easy access to the scientific basis underlying the latest HIV and AIDS estimates for 2007. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN | HIV INFECTIONS | AIDS | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | UNAIDS | WORKSHOPS | EPIDEMIOLOGY | INCIDENCE | PREVALENCE | Research Methodology | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | HIV | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Education | Public Health | Health | Measurement Document Number: 323040 |
| 7. Title: Age differences at sexual debut and subsequent reproductive health: Is there a link? Author: Gomez AM; Speizer IS; Reynolds H; Murray N; Beauvais H Source: Reproductive Health. 2008;5:8. Abstract: ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Experiences at sexual debut may be linked to reproductive health later in life. Additionally, young women with older sexual partners may be at greater risk for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. This study examines sexual debut with an older partner and subsequent reproductive health outcomes among 599 sexually experienced women aged 15-24 who utilized voluntary counseling and testing or reproductive health services in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. METHODS: Logistic regression models, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors, examined whether age differences at first sex were significantly associated with STI diagnosis in the previous 12 months and family planning method use at last intercourse. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of women reported sexual initiation with a partner younger or less than 5 years older, 28% with a partner 5 to 10 years older, and 7% with a partner 10 or more years older. There was a trend towards decreased likelihood of recent use of family planning methods in women who had first sexual intercourse with a partner 5 to 9 years older compared to women with partners who were younger or less than 5 years older. Age differences were not linked to recent STI diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Programs focusing on delaying sexual debut should consider age and gender-based power differentials between younger women and older men. Future research should examine whether wide age differences at sexual debut are predictive of continued involvement in cross-generational relationships and risky sexual behaviors and explore the mechanisms by which cross-generational first sex and subsequent reproductive health may be connected. Language: English Keywords: HAITI | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | RESEARCH REPORT | KAP SURVEYS | BASELINE SURVEYS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | ADOLESCENTS, FEMALE | BLACKS | CONDOM USE | VALIDITY | TIME FACTORS | RELIABILITY | Caribbean | Americas | Developing Countries | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Adolescents | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Ethnic Groups | Cultural Background | Risk Reduction Behavior | Behavior | Measurement | Population Dynamics Document Number: 328027 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Author: Jia Y; Sun J; Fan L; Song D; Tian S; Yang Y; Jia M; Lu L; Sun X; Zhang S; Kulczycki A; Vermund SH Source: International Journal of Epidemiology. 2008 Dec;37(6):1287-1296. Abstract: Background: Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China, borders Myanmar. Its proximity to the 'Golden Triangle', one of the world's largest illicit drug production and distribution centre, contributes to drug trafficking and ready availability of heroin. Dehong's 1.1 million people confront a serious HIV problem fuelled by injection drug use. The aim of this study is to improve the 2005 estimates of the true status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Prefecture. Methods: We estimated the HIV prevalence by synthesizing the results from several data sources (HIV/AIDS case reports, surveys, surveillance activities and epidemiological studies). We applied three different statistical procedures for estimations: (i) The Workbook method, adapted to meet the estimation needs in Dehong Prefecture; (ii) An estimate based on antenatal clinical data; and (iii) a dynamic model based on the local epidemic pattern. Results: We estimated that the population prevalence for HIV infections in Dehong Prefecture is 1.3% (likely range from low/high of three estimates: 0.9-1.7%) such that 13 500 people were living with HIV/ AIDS in Dehong Prefecture (likely range: 8200-18 300) in 2005. Infections remain concentrated among injection drug users, female sex workers and their clients with an uneven geographical distribution of estimated cases. Conclusion: More reliable estimates of HIV prevalence can be made by synthesizing multiple data sources using several procedures. Current HIV prevention, care and treatment challenges are judged substantial in Dehong Prefecture, regardless of what modelling strategy is used. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | IV DRUG USERS | SEX WORKERS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | ANTENATAL CARE | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Geographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Drug Use and Abuse | Behavior | Sex Behavior | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Measurement | Maternal Health Services | Maternal-Child Health Services | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 328758 |
| 9. Peer Reviewed Title: Association between fertility and HIV status: what implications for HIV estimates? Author: Kongnyuy EJ; Wiysonge CS Source: BMC Public Health. 2008;8:309. Abstract: BACKGROUND: Most estimates of HIV prevalence have been based on sentinel surveillance of pregnant women which may either under-estimate or over-estimate the actual prevalence in adult female population. One situation which can lead to either an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual HIV prevalence is where there is a significant difference in fertility rates between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women. Our aim was to compare the fertility rates of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women in Cameroon in order to make recommendations on the appropriate adjustments when using antenatal sentinel data to estimate HIV prevalence. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study using data from 4493 sexually active women aged 15 to 49 years who participated in the 2004 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey. RESULTS: In the rural area, the age-specific fertility rates in both HIV positive and HIV negative women increased from 15-19 years age bracket to a maximum at 20-24 years and then decreased monotonically till 35-49 years. Similar trends were observed in the urban area. The overall fertility rate for HIV positive women was 118.7 births per 1000 woman-years (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 98.4 to 142.0) compared to 171.3 births per 1000 woman-years (95% CI 164.5 to 178.2) for HIV negative women. The ratio of the fertility rate in HIV positive women to the fertility rate of HIV negative women (called the relative inclusion ratio) was 0.69 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75). CONCLUSION: Fertility rates are lower in HIV-positive than HIV-negative women in Cameroon. The findings of this study support the use of summary RIR for the adjustment of HIV prevalence (among adult female population) obtained from sentinel surveillance in antenatal clinics. Language: English Keywords: CAMEROON | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | RURAL POPULATION | FERTILITY RATE | HIV INFECTIONS | PREVALENCE | BIAS | AGE FACTORS | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Studies | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement | Error Sources Document Number: 328506 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine's national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007. Author: Kruglov YV; Kobyshcha YV; Salyuk T; Varetska O; Shakarishvili A; Saldanha VP Source: Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008;84(Suppl 1):i37-i41. Abstract: The objective of this study was to revise the national HIV estimates and quantify the magnitude of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine at the end of 2007. Internationally recommended methods-the Workbook and Spectrum-were employed to generate the estimates. This enables comparison of results with other countries using the same methodology. Estimation of the size of most at-risk populations nationally was performed using capturerecapture, multiplier and triangulation methods. HIV prevalence among most at-risk populations was estimated by linked HIV sentinel and behavioural surveillance among injecting drug users, and men who have sex with men, and unlinked sentinel surveillance among sex workers. The range of HIV prevalence and extrapolation for populations at lower risk were determined by consensus among national stakeholders. Results were reviewed by national stakeholders and endorsed by the government of Ukraine. At the end of 2007, an estimated 395 000 adults (range 230 000-573 000) aged 15-49 were living with HIV in Ukraine. Adult HIV prevalence was estimated at 1.63%, which represents the highest adult HIV prevalence of any country in Europe. The HIV epidemic in Ukraine continues to grow at a record pace, concentrated among most at-risk populations, the majority of whom are unaware of their HIV status. The results emphasise the need to accelerate the coverage and quality of prevention programmes among most at-risk populations and their sexual partners. Language: English Keywords: UKRAINE | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | IV DRUG USERS | MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN | SEX WORKERS | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | EPIDEMICS | Developing Countries | Europe, Eastern | Europe | Research Methodology | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Drug Use and Abuse | Behavior | Sex Behavior | Measurement Document Number: 323044 |
| 11. Peer Reviewed Title: Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality. Author: Moultrie TA; Dorrington R Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Sep 16;19(46):1635-1662. Abstract: Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | AIDS | HIV INFECTIONS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MORTALITY CHANGES | Africa | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality Document Number: 328096 |
| 12. Peer Reviewed Title: Residential area as proxy for socio-economic status, paediatric mortality and birth weight in Lusaka, Zambia. Author: Mweemba AJ; Webb E Source: Journal of Tropical Pediatrics. 2008 Dec;54(6):406-9. Abstract: Systems of socio-economic classification comparable to the Registrar General's Social Classification or post codes are not readily available in many developing countries. Thus health data from developing countries are usually presented without a refined geographical focus. The hierarchical urban residential classification system in Zambia was used as a socio-economic proxy to explore the relationship with mass measures of paediatric health in Lusaka, Zambia. This study shows that the Zambian urban residential classification system appears to be a valid proxy of socio-economic status, revealing residential gradients with respect to birth weight and paediatric mortality rates in Lusaka. Language: English Keywords: ZAMBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | CLASSIFICATION | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | URBAN POPULATION | LOCALE | SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS | BIRTH WEIGHT | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | CHILD MORTALITY | AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Body Weight | Physiology | Biology | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Death Rate Document Number: 330410 |
| 13. Peer Reviewed Title: Short- and long-term efficacy of modified directly observed antiretroviral treatment in Mombasa, Kenya: a randomized trial. Author: Sarna A; Luchters S; Geibel S; Chersich MF; Munyao P; Kaai S; Mandaliya KN; Shikely KS; Temmerman M; Rutenberg N Source: JAIDS. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2008 Aug 15;48(5):611-9. Abstract: OBJECTIVES: To determine short- and long-term efficacy of modified directly observed therapy (m-DOT) on antiretroviral adherence. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. SETTING AND ANALYTIC APPROACH: From September 2003 to November 2004, 234 HIV-infected adults were assigned m-DOT (24 weeks of twice weekly health center visits for nurse-observed pill ingestion, adherence support, and medication collection) or standard care. Follow-up continued until week 72. Self-reported and pill-count adherence and, secondarily, viral suppression and body mass index measures are reported. Generalized estimating equations adjusted for intraclient clustering and covariates were used. RESULTS: During weeks 1-24, 9.1% (9/99) of m-DOT participants reported missing doses compared with 19.1% (20/105) of controls (P = 0.04) and 96.5% (517/571) of m-DOT pill-count measures were >or=95% compared with 86.1% (445/517) in controls [adjusted odds ratio = 4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.6 to 7.5; P < 0.001. Adherence with m-DOT was 4.8 times greater (95% CI = 2.7 to 8.6; P < 0.001) with adjustment for depression and HIV-related hospitalization. In weeks 25-48, adherence with m-DOT (488/589) was similar to controls (507/630). Viral suppression at 48 weeks was 2.0 times (95% CI = 0.8 to 5.2; P = 0.13) as likely in m-DOT participants as controls. M-DOT patients had larger body mass index increases at 24 weeks (2.2 vs 1.4 kg/m3; P = 0.014). Viral suppression was more likely at week 48 (21/25 vs 13/22; P = 0.057) and week 72 (27/30 vs 15/23; P = 0.027) among depressed participants receiving m-DOT. CONCLUSIONS: M-DOT increased adherence, most notably among depressed participants. Language: English Keywords: KENYA | RESEARCH REPORT | CLINICAL TRIALS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | USER COMPLIANCE | HIV INFECTIONS | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | DEPRESSION | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Clinical Research | Research Methodology | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Behavior | HIV | Mental Disorders Document Number: 328290 |
| 14. Peer Reviewed Title: What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969 - 1989? Author: Spoorenberg T Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Apr 18;18(10):285-310. Abstract: The closure of Mongolia to the international community during the 20th century resulted in a dearth of available data and analytic demographic studies. In the absence of mortality analysis during the socialist period, this paper proposes the use of indirect census-based techniques to estimate mortality levels and trends of the last two socialist decades (1969-1989). Due to census data quality and choice of model life table, results are not homogeneous. The respective effects of these two components are discussed in order to understand the results. However, despite these shortcomings, it is shown that during the last socialist decades in Mongolia, the health conditions of the population deteriorated. The Mongolian pattern is relatively similar to the situation documented for the ex-socialist republics. Causes of this similarity are discussed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MONGOLIA | RESEARCH REPORT | MORTALITY CHANGES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | POPULATION DYNAMICS | CENSUS | RELIABILITY | HEALTH SERVICES | HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Mortality | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Measurement | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Management | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326095 |
| 15. Title: HIV testing during pregnancy: use of secondary data to estimate 2006 test coverage and prevalence in Brazil. Author: Szwarcwald CL; Barbosa Junior A; Souza-Junior PR; Lemos KR; Frias PG; Luhm KR; Holcman MM; Esteves MA Source: Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2008 Jun;12(3):167-72. Abstract: This paper describes a methodological proposal based on secondary data and the main results of the HIV-Sentinel Study among childbearing women, carried out in Brazil during 2006. A probabilistic sample of childbearing women was selected in two stages. In the first stage, 150 health establishments were selected, stratified by municipality size (<50,000; 50,000-399,999; 400,000+). In the second stage, 100-120 women were selected systematically. Data collection was based on HIV-test results registered in pre-natal cards and in hospital records. The analysis focused on coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy and HIV prevalence rate. Logistic regression models were used to test inequalities in HIV-testing coverage during pregnancy by macro-region of residence, municipality size, race, educational level and age group. The study included 16,158 women. Results were consistent with previous studies based on primary data collection. Among the women receiving pre-natal care with HIV-test results registered in their pre-natal cards, HIV prevalence was 0.41%. Coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy was 62.3% in the country as a whole, but ranged from 40.6% in the Northeast to 85.8% in the South. Significant differences according to race, educational level and municipality size were also found. The proposed methodology is low-cost, easy to apply, and permits identification of problems in routine service provision, in addition to monitoring compliance with Ministry of Health recommendations for pre-natal care. Language: English Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | SAMPLING STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | CLINICAL RESEARCH | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | PROBABILITY | HIV TESTING | COST EFFECTIVENESS | HUMAN GEOGRAPHY | Developing Countries | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Studies | Research Methodology | Data Analysis | Estimation Techniques | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | Statistical Studies | Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Evaluation Indexes | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Geography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 330446 |
| 16. Title: HIV testing during pregnancy: use of secondary data to estimate 2006 test coverage and prevalence in Brazil. Author: Szwarcwald CL; Junior AB; de Souza-Junior PR; de Lemos KR; de Frias G Source: Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2008 June;12(3):167-172. Abstract: This paper describes a methodological proposal based on secondary data and the main results of the HIV-Sentinel Study among childbearing women, carried out in Brazil during 2006. A probabilistic sample of childbearing women was selected in two stages. In the first stage, 150 health establishments were selected, stratified by municipality size (<50,000; 50,000-399,999; 400,000+). In the second stage, 100-120 women were selected systematically. Data collection was based on HIV-test results registered in pre-natal cards and in hospital records. The analysis focused on coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy and HIV prevalence rate. Logistic regression models were used to test inequalities in HIV-testing coverage during pregnancy by macro-region of residence, municipality size, race, educational level and age group. The study included 16,158 women. Results were consistent with previous studies based on primary data collection. Among the women receiving pre-natal care with HIV-test results registered in their pre-natal cards, HIV prevalence was 0.41%. Coverage of HIV-testing during pregnancy was 62.3% in the country as a whole, but ranged from 40.6% in the Northeast to 85.8% in the South. Significant differences according to race, educational level and municipality size were also found. The proposed methodology is low-cost, easy to apply, and permits identification of problems in routine service provision, in addition to monitoring compliance with Ministry of Health recommendations for pre-natal care. Language: English Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CLINICAL RESEARCH | ETHNIC GROUPS | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | HIV TESTING | HIV INFECTIONS | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | AGE FACTORS | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Data Analysis | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Measurement | Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 329382 |
| 17. Title: HIV incidence estimates are key to understanding the changing HIV epidemic in South Africa [editorial] Author: Abdool Karim SS Source: South African Medical Journal. 2007 Mar;97(3):190. Abstract: The study by Rehle et al. in this issue of the SAMJ makes an important contribution to understanding the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. While the high prevalence of HIV confirms that HIV continues to be hyper-endemic in South Africa, their estimates of HIV incidence highlight the extraordinarily high levels of ongoing HIV transmission in South Africa. A deep concern is the unrelenting epidemic in youth, with particularly high incidence rates in young women. In their study, Rehle et al. utilise the IgG-Capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) to detect recent HIV seroconversion for the purpose of calculating HIV incidence rates. This technology has been applied to several cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence, including an injecting drug user population from Bangkok. Since this method is still being validated for different conditions, such as viral clade, the absolute estimates of incidence should be regarded as tentative, but the subgroup comparisons in the study remain highly informative. In order to understand the dynamics of HIV infection and epidemic trends, more data are needed on the current burden of disease, the rate of new HIV infections and mortality rates. At a time when prevalence trends in pregnant South African women suggest that incident cases of HIV infection are being masked by rising mortality, it is of particular importance to monitor changes in the number of new infections in South Africa. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | CRITIQUE | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | STATISTICAL STUDIES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | HIV INFECTIONS | INCIDENCE | PREVALENCE | HIV TESTING | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Studies | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement | Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses | Examinations and Diagnoses | Medical Procedures | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 318208 |
| 18. Title: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Author: Alkema L; Raftery AE; Clark SJ Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 18 p. Abstract: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends in antenatal clinics. Understanding uncertainty in its projections and related quantities is important for more informed policy decision making. We propose using Bayesian melding to assess the uncertainty around the EPP predictions. Prevalence data as well as information on the input parameters of the EPP model are used to derive probabilistic HIV prevalence projections - a probability distribution on a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 1% to 7%. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UGANDA | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CASE STUDIES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | PREGNANT WOMEN | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | UNAIDS | PROBABILITY | ANTENATAL CARE | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Estimation Techniques | Studies | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Statistical Studies | Maternal Health Services | Maternal-Child Health Services | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 318537 |
| 19. Peer Reviewed Title: Adherence to antiretroviral therapy in patients receiving free treatment from a government hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. Author: Bell DJ; Kapitao Y; Sikwese R; van Oosterhout JJ; Lalloo DG Source: JAIDS. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2007 Aug 15;45(5):560-563. Abstract: The objectives were to compare 3 measures of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-positive adults receiving free treatment from a public hospital in Malawi. Adherence was measured over 1 month by pill count (PC), self-report, and a medication event monitoring system (MEMS). Data from 80 patients were available for analysis. The mean patient age was 38.6 years, and 57.5% were female. The mean adherence using the MEMS cap (MC) was 88.1%. Forty-six (57.5%) patients had MC adherence $95%, and 13 (16.2%) had ,80% adherence. There was no association between MC adherence and time on ART. Mean PC adherence was 98.6%, significantly higher than MC adherence (P , 0.001). There was no clear relation between PC and MC adherence: 4 patients had MC adherence ,20% but PC adherence of 100%. Self-reports of missing a tablet did not correlate with poor MC adherence. The study shows the complexities of measuring adherence and probable overestimation of adherence by PC and self-report. Because these are the main methods used in developing countries, this raises concerns about the development of drug resistance. Improved methods are needed to detect nonadherence in developing countries, and validation of MC data with drug levels and virologic outcome in this setting is important. (author's) Language: English Keywords: MALAWI | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | KAP SURVEYS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | USER COMPLIANCE | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | HOSPITALS | NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICES | TIME FACTORS | VALIDITY | RELIABILITY | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Surveys | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Behavior | HIV | Health Facilities | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Health Services | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement Document Number: 320646 |
| 20. Title: Teacher absences in an HIV and AIDS context: evidence from nine schools in Kavango and Caprivi (Namibia). Author: Castro V; Duthilleul Y; Caillods F Source: Paris, France, UNESCO, International Institute for Educational Planning, 2007. 76 p. (Research Papers IIEP) Abstract: This report from International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP) investigates teacher absenteeism as a result of the HIV and AIDS pandemic in Namibia and the resulting impact on the country's education system. The study examines how some schools in high prevalence areas are managing the problem. The research was conducted using qualitative methodology, requiring in-depth observations and interviews. The report covers a limited number of schools and so the results cannot be generalised for the whole of Namibia but they do provide useful suggestions for countries where teacher absenteeism may worsen due to increased prevalence of HIV and AIDS. The report concludes that teacher absenteeism is a serious problem and it has major consequences on the organisation of the teaching process and pupils' learning opportunities. This problem has been aggravated by the HIV epidemic; although silence induced by stigma associated with the disease makes it impossible to assess how many absences are directly related to the pandemic. HIV and AIDS constitute a serious problem in Namibia and the authors argue that it has to be addressed as a management problem within education, which if left unresolved may result in serious and lasting damage to the educational system. Language: English Keywords: NAMIBIA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | SURVEYS | PILOT PROJECTS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | TEACHERS | HIV INFECTIONS | AIDS | PREVALENCE | STIGMA | POLICY | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Research Methodology | Sampling Studies | Studies | Estimation Techniques | Education | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement | Social Problems | Sociocultural Factors | Political Factors Document Number: 327399 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Complete blood cell count as a surrogate CD4 cell marker for HIV monitoring in resource-limited settings. Author: Chen RY; Westfall AO; Hardin JM; Miller-Hardwick C; Stringer JS Source: JAIDS. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2007 Apr 15;44(5):525-530. Abstract: A total lymphocyte count (TLC) of 1200 cells/mL has been used as a surrogate for a CD4 count of 200 cells/mL in resource-limited settings with varying results. We developed a more effective method based on a decision tree algorithm to classify subjects. A decision tree was used to develop models with the variables TLC, hemoglobin, platelet count, gender, body mass index, and antiretroviral treatment status of subjects from the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) observational database. Models were validated on data from the Birmingham Veterans Affairs Medical Center (BVAMC) and Zambia, with primary decision trees also generated from these data. A total of 1189 patients from the UAB observational database were included. The UAB decision tree classified a CD4 count #200 cells/mL as better than a TLC cut-point of 1200 cells/mL, based on the area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic curve (P < 0.0001). When applied to data from the BVAMC and Zambia, the UAB-based decision treeperformed better than the TLC cut-point of 1200 cells/mL (BVAMC: P < 0.0001; Zambia: P = 0.0009) but worse than a decision tree based on local data (BVAMC: P = 0.0001; Zambia: P = 0.0001). A decision tree algorithm based on local data identifies low CD4 cell counts better than one developed from a different population or a TLC cut-point of 1200 cells/mL. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ALABAMA | RESEARCH REPORT | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | THEORETICAL MODELS | CLINICAL RESEARCH | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | IMMUNITY, CELLULAR | MONITORING | HIV INFECTIONS | DECISION MAKING | HEMOGLOBIN LEVEL | SEX FACTORS | BODY WEIGHT | ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY | Developed Countries | United States of America | North America | Americas | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Immunity | Immune System | Physiology | Biology | Evaluation | Behavior | Hemic System | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | HIV Document Number: 315601 |
| 22. Peer Reviewed Title: 'Are you on the market?': A capture -- recapture enumeration of men who sell sex to men in and around Mombasa, Kenya. Author: Geibel S; van der Elst EM; King'ola N; Luchters S; Davies A Source: AIDS. 2007 Jun;21(10):1349-1354. Abstract: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are highly vulnerable to HIV infection, but this population can be particularly difficult to reach in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to estimate the number of MSM who sell sex in and around Mombasa, Kenya, in order to plan HIV prevention research. We identified 77 potential MSM contact locations, including public streets and parks, brothels, bars and nightclubs, in and around Mombasa and trained 37 MSM peer leader enumerators to extend a recruitment leaflet to MSM who were identified as 'on the market', that is, a man who admitted to selling sex to men. We captured men on two consecutive Saturdays, 1 week apart. A record was kept of when, where and by whom the invitation was extended and received, and of refusals. The total estimate of MSM who sell sex was derived from capture-recapture calculation. Capture 1 included 284 men (following removal of 15 duplicates); 89 men refused to participate. Capture 2 included 484 men (following removal of 35 duplicates); 75 men refused to participate. Of the 484 men in capture 2, 186 were recaptures from capture 1, resulting in a total estimate of 739 (95% confidence interval, 690-798) MSM who sell sex in the study area. We estimated that 739 MSM sell sex in and around Mombasa. Of these, 484 were contacted through trained peer enumerators in a single day. MSM who sell sex in and around Mombasa represent a sizeable population who urgently need to be targeted by HIV prevention strategies. (author's) Language: English Keywords: KENYA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN | SEX WORKERS | INFLUENTIALS | HIV PREVENTION | SEX BEHAVIOR | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Behavior | Knowledge Sources | Communication | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases Document Number: 313574 |
| 23. Peer Reviewed Title: Empirical observations underestimate the proportion of HIV infections attributable to sexually transmitted diseases in Mwanza and Rakai STD treatment trials: Simulation results. Author: Gray RH; Serwadda D; Wawer MJ Source: Sexually Transmitted Diseases. 2007 Jan;34(1):61. Abstract: Orroth et al used a simulation model to assess the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections associated with STDs and concluded that published empirical PAF estimates underestimate the "true" PAF attributable to these conditions, mainly because the published PAF estimates only consider "STD effects on HIV acquisition" but do not account for such cofactor effects on transmission. We previously published estimates of the PAF of HIV acquisition and transmission associated with STD symptoms in HIV-concordant negative and discordant sexual partners in rural Rakai district of southwestern Uganda. This analysis found a PAF of incident HIV associated with genital ulcer disease (GUD) of 22.4% in concordant HIV-negative couples and a PAF for GUD of 14.3% in HIV-discordant couples. Since 93.8% of couples were concordantly HIV-negative in this population, the weighted PAF associated with GUD was approximately 21.7%. Orroth et al estimated that the PAF for curable STIs (mainly ulcerative infections) in Rakai was 20%. Thus, our couple-based estimates are compatible with those derived from the simulation model. However, analyses based on GUD symptoms and HIV acquisition in HIV-negative individuals, which ignored transmission effects, suggested a much lower GUD PAF of 8.8%. Thus, the empirical Rakai data support the argument that PAFs of STD cofactor effects confined to HIV acquisition underestimate the total PAF for STD effects on both transmission and acquisition within couples. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UGANDA | CRITIQUE | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CLINICAL RESEARCH | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | COUPLES | SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES | HIV TRANSMISSION | PREVALENCE | COMPLICATIONS | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Reproductive Tract Infections | Infections | Measurement Document Number: 310731 |
| 24. Peer Reviewed Title: What can the age composition of a population tell us about the age composition of its out-migrants? Author: Little JS; Rogers A Source: Population, Space and Place. 2007 Jan-Feb;13(1):23-39. Abstract: Preliminary findings show that the age structure of a population can provide valuable information about the age composition of its out-migrants, and that this relationship can become a key ingredient in the proposed new method for estimating the age profile of outmigrants when accurate data are not available. The method relies on the Rogers-Castro model schedule to consistently and accurately represent age profiles of out-migration, and the results show that variation among these out-migration schedules can be captured by a typology based on a small set of clusters, or families of schedules. Membership of the clusters is then predicted from simple measures of population composition using discriminant function analysis. The investigation is based on data for US states, CMSAs, MSAs and non-metropolitan counties, and their outflows of migrants between 1995 and 2000. The measures of population age composition come from official 1995 intercensal age-specific population estimates for the same geographical units. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MIGRANTS | INTERNAL MIGRATION | AGE FACTORS | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 311617 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: Using schoolchildren's reports of bed net use monitored by schoolteachers as a proxy of community coverage in malaria endemic areas of Uganda. Author: Ndyomugyenyi R; Kroeger A Source: Tropical Medicine and International Health. 2007 Feb;12(2):230-237. Abstract: Community-based information on the delivery and use of health interventions is important to monitor the effectiveness of the Roll Back Malaria programme. However, community surveys to determine coverage for insecticide-treated bed nets are time-consuming and costly. We wanted to assess whether schoolchildren's reports of household ownership of a bed net and coverage among high-risk groups monitored by schoolteachers through a questionnaire could be used as a proxy of household ownership of bed net and coverage at community level, for routine monitoring of malaria control programmes. 3602 schoolchildren in 39 randomly selected schools and 2798 heads of households in 39 villages were interviewed about their use of either insecticide-treated or untreated bed nets. The overall household ownership of any kind of bed net was 35% in school surveys and 31% in household surveys (P < 0.001). Household ownership of insecticide-treated nets was 23% and 22%, respectively (P = 0.4); household ownership of untreated nets was 15% and 9%, respectively (P < 0.001). There was significant correlation between estimates of any bed net and treated net ownership based on household surveys and estimates based on school surveys (P < 0.01 for both). In areas with high school attendance rates, schoolchildren's report of bed net use monitored by schoolteachers through a questionnaire could give a good approximation of household ownership of bed net at community level with about ±5% difference between community and school surveys. However, further operational research is required to investigate how the feasibility of largescale implementation might be, by sending the questionnaire to the schools through routine channels and by independent handling by the school administration and teachers. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UGANDA | RESEARCH REPORT | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CHILDREN | SCHOOL AGE POPULATION | COMMUNITY | TEACHERS | BED NETS | MONITORING | USER COMPLIANCE | PREVALENCE | OWNERSHIP | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Education | Parasite Control | Public Health | Health | Evaluation | Behavior | Measurement | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 312151 |
| 26. Title: Response to Gray's letter. Author's reply [letter] Author: Orroth KK; White RG; Hayes RJ Source: Sexually Transmitted Diseases. 2007 Jan;34(1):62. Abstract: Gray et al question our simulation estimates of the proportions of new HIV infections in the Mwanza and Rakai trial populations attributable to chancroid. One of our main findings was that the simulated PAF for chancroid in Mwanza was much higher than in Rakai, and we attributed this to higher-risk sexual behavior in Mwanza, resulting in a higher prevalence of chancroid, as well as a more mature HIV epidemic in Rakai, where a large proportion of HIV transmission occurred within stable partnerships with a low prevalence of curable STDs. Gray et al claim the model "seriously exaggerates" the role of chancroid due to unsupported assumptions about the prevalence of chancroid in Mwanza and the high cofactor effect assumed for chancroid. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: UGANDA | CRITIQUE | RESEARCH REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | CLINICAL RESEARCH | PERSONS LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS | COUPLES | SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES | HIV TRANSMISSION | PREVALENCE | COMPLICATIONS | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Persons Living With HIV/AIDS | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Reproductive Tract Infections | Infections | Measurement Document Number: 310732 |
| 27. Peer Reviewed Title: Estimating the incidence of abortion in Pakistan. Author: Sathar ZA; Singh S; Fikree FF Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2007 Mar;38(1):11-22. Abstract: This study applies an indirect estimation method to develop comprehensive national and provincial estimates of the prevalence of abortion and abortion-related morbidity in Pakistan. Data from a health facilities survey and a health professionals survey from 2002 are analyzed to develop estimates of postabortion hospitalizations and of the abortion rate, abortion ratio, and unwanted pregnancy rate. We estimate that 890,000 induced abortions are performed annually in Pakistan, and estimate an annual abortion rate of 29 per 1,000 women aged 15-49. The abortion rate is found to be higher in provinces where contraceptive use is lower and where unwanted childbearing is higher. The unwanted pregnancy rate is estimated at 77 per 1,000 women, or about 37 percent of all pregnancies. Abortions account for termination of one in seven pregnancies. An estimated 197,000 women are treated annually in public hospitals and private teaching hospitals for induced abortion complications, a number equivalent to an annual rate of 6.4 women hospitalized as a result of unsafe induced abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49. (author's) Language: English Keywords: PAKISTAN | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | PREGNANT WOMEN | ABORTION | ABORTION RATE | PREGNANCY, UNWANTED | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Population Dynamics Document Number: 308428 Notification |
| 28. Title: Adult mortality in Southern Africa using deaths reported by households: some methodological issues and results. Extended abstract. Author: Dorrington R; Timaeus I; Gregson S Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 4 p. Abstract: Censuses in developing countries quite often ask households to report of the number of deaths in a period immediately prior to the census but these data don't seem to have been used much to produce estimates of adult mortality in Southern Africa in recent years. This paper analyses the potential biases in these data and applies a combination of the generalized growth balance and synthetic extinct generations method to data adapted from censuses in Zimbabwe to produces estimates of mortality. These estimates are compared with those produced by other researchers and found to be broadly consistent and the results are interpreted in the context of similar applications to data from Swaziland and Botswana. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ZIMBABWE | AFRICA, SOUTHERN | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | CENSUS METHODS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | ADULTS | CENSUS | MORTALITY | BIAS | Developing Countries | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Error Sources | Measurement Document Number: 317419 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Estimating cause-specific mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates. Author: Whiting DR; Setel PW; Chandramohan D; Wolfson LJ; Hemed Y Source: Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2006 Dec;84(12):940-948. Abstract: The objective was to compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults. (author's) Language: English Keywords: TANZANIA | RESEARCH REPORT | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | COMMUNITY | CAUSES OF DEATH | MORTALITY | HEALTH FACILITIES | LENGTH OF LIFE | EPIDEMIOLOGY | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Public Health Document Number: 309728 |
| 30. Title: [Immunization coverage survey: empirical assessment of the cluster sampling method proposed by the World Health Organization] Inquérito de cobertura vacinal: avaliação empírica da técnica de amostragem por conglomerados proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde. Author: Barata RB; de Moraes JC; Antonio PR; Dominguez M Source: Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública / Pan American Journal of Public Health. 2005;17(3):184-190. Abstract: Objective: To analyze the representation of the sample and the precision of estimates obtained using the conglomerate methodology (30 of 7) proposed by the World Health Organization via their application to inquiries of vaccination coverage realized in Diadema and São Caetano do Sul, state of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2000. Methods: The representation of the samples was evaluated by comparing the tax-paying sector, sorted by their inquiries, to other sectors in two municipalities in terms of socio-demographic characteristrics (age structure of the population, schooling, proportion of families with women at the head, monthly income of the head of the family, and sanitation conditions). The precision of the estimates of coverage by the vaccines in the basic vaccination scheme (BCG; diphtheria, Pertussis and tetanus or DPT, poliomyelitis, hepatitis B; measles, mumps, and rubella or viral triplice) was analyzed through the measurements of the effect of the design and range of the confidence intervals. Precision was considered satisfactory when the effect of the design was less than 2.0 and the range of the confidence intervals was less than 10%. Results: In both municipalities, the comparison between the sorted and non-sorted sectors showed similar distributions for the socioeconomic and demographic variables. With regard to the precision of the estimates, the effect of the design was less than 2.0 for all the vaccines as much as in Diadema as in São Caetano do Sul. In Diadema, the confidence intervals were less than 10% for all vaccines, except viral triplice. In São Caetano do Sul, as the included children were a bit more than 10% for the vaccine against poliomyelitis (10.3%), for the vaccine against the hepatitis B virus (11.8%), for the vaccine against measles (10.4%), for the viral triplice (12.9%) and for the complete scheme (11.2%). Conclusion: The inquiry method of vaccination coverage proposed by the World Health Organization is capable of providing representative facts about the population since the methodological proceedings of selection are followed rigorously in the countryside. (author's) Language: Portuguese Keywords: BRAZIL | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | CHILDREN | IMMUNIZATION | WHO | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Developing Countries | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Population | Primary Health Care | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 290883 |
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