1.  Peer Reviewed Title: The rising proportion of repeat teenage pregnancies in young women presenting for termination of pregnancy from 1991 to 2007. Author: Collier J Source: Contraception. 2009 May;79(5):393-6. Abstract: BACKGROUND: It is difficult to fully ascertain the number of teenagers in the United Kingdom who have more than one pregnancy before the age of 20 years. The national abortion figures represent one of the few ways one can investigate on a national scale whether there is an increase in the number of young women presenting with a repeat pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: Datasheets regarding legally induced abortions carried out in England and Wales from 1991 to 2007 were downloaded from the Office of National Statistics and Department of Health websites. Age-specific data were extracted. RESULTS: Among young women less than 20 years old who present for abortion in England and Wales, those with recorded previous pregnancies have steadily risen from 1991 to 2007 both in absolute number and in proportion. The increase in the proportion of abortions that are subsequent to a previous birth was by 42% (from 0.080 to 0.115), and the increase in the proportion of abortions subsequent to a previous abortion was by 68% (from 0.081 to 0.134). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence that repeat teenage pregnancies are on the increase. Urgent attention is required to improve contraceptive advice and services targeted specifically at teenagers who have previously conceived. Language: English Keywords: UNITED KINGDOM | RESEARCH REPORT | ADOLESCENTS | YOUTH | ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY | ABORTION | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Fertility Control, Postconception | Family Planning Document Number: 342083 Notification |
2.  Title: Births: preliminary data for 2007. Author: Hamilton BE; Martin JA; Ventura SJ Source: National Vital Statistics Reports. 2009 Mar 18;57(12):1-23. Abstract: Objectives-This report presents preliminary data for 2007 on births in the United States. U.S. data on births are shown by age, live-birth order, race, and Hispanic origin of mother. Data on marital status, cesarean delivery, preterm births, and low birthweight are also presented. Methods-Data in this report are based on 98.7 percent of births for 2007. The records are weighted to independent control counts of all births received in state vital statistics offices in 2007. Comparisons are made with 2006 data. Results-The preliminary estimate of births in 2007 rose 1 percent to 4,317,119, the highest number of births ever registered for the United States. The general fertility rate increased by 1 percent in 2007, to 69.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, the highest level since 1990. Increases occurred within all race and Hispanic origin groups and for nearly all age groups. The birth rate for U.S. teenagers 15-19 years rose again in 2007 by about 1 percent, to 42.5 births per 1,000. The birth rate for teenagers 15-17 and 18-19 years each increased by 1 percent in 2007, to 22.2 and 73.9 per 1,000, respectively. The rate for the youngest group, 10-14 years, was unchanged. Birth rates also increased for women in their twenties, thirties, and early forties between 2006 and 2007. The 2007 total fertility rate increased to 2,122.5 births per 1,000 women. All measures of childbearing by unmarried women rose to historic levels in 2007, with the number of births, birth rate, and proportion of births to unmarried women increasing 3 to 5 percent. The cesarean delivery rate rose 2 percent in 2007, to 31.8 percent, marking the 11th consecutive year of increase and another record high for the United States. The rate of preterm births (infants delivered at less than 37 weeks of gestation) decreased 1 percent in 2007, to 12.7 percent, with the decline predominately among infants born late preterm (at 34-36 weeks). The rate of low birthweight (less than 2,500 grams) also declined slightly in 2007, to 8.2 percent. Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | VITAL STATISTICS | BIRTH RATE | INFANT HEALTH | FERTILITY RATE | MATERNAL HEALTH | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Child Health | Health Document Number: 341885 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation. Author: Garssen J; Nicolaas H Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 18;19(33):1249-1280. Abstract: Cohort data by generation for Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands indicate that the first generation adjust their fertility levels only slowly to that of native Dutch women. These women show even higher rates than presently reported by the countries of origin, and few signs of assimilation in (fertility) behaviour. The second generation, on the other hand, are much closer to native women in this respect than to their mothers. Adjustment to the native Dutch fertility pattern is caused by intergenerational differences, rather than by cultural assimilation of the first generation. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | TURKEY | MOROCCO | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE | MIGRANTS | ETHNIC GROUPS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Developing Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Africa, North | Africa | Research Methodology | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Migration | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics Document Number: 327754 |
| 4. Peer Reviewed Title: Reproductive inequality in sub-Saharan Africa: Differentials versus concentration. Author: Giroux SC; Eloundou-Enyegue PM; Lichter DT Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2008 Sep;39(3):187-198. Abstract: Within developing countries, our understanding of reproductive inequality-how fertility is distributed within a population-has been shaped largely by studies of fertility differentials, a practical but partial-information measure. In this study, we examine whether exclusive reliance on differentials biases this understanding. Findings based on recent data from sub-Saharan Africa show bias. We find that historical and especially cross-country comparisons can yield substantially different conclusions about the magnitude and even the direction of inequality patterns and trends, depending on whether differentials or fuller-information measures are used. For instance, the fertility differentials associated with education have remained relatively stable as national fertility has fallen, but inequality (as calculated by a fuller measure) has increased. Such results underscore the value of complementing existing studies of fertility differentials with analyses based on fuller-information measures. The analyses also show how change in differential fertility behavior and in the educational composition of national populations has shaped recent variations in reproductive inequality in the region. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | HETEROGENEITY | BIAS | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Characteristics | Error Sources | Measurement | Research Methodology | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 328156 |
| 5. Title: Tracking trends in low fertility countries: An uptick in Europe? Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Sep. [3] p. Abstract: PRB has made a major update to its table of total fertility rates (TFRs) in countries with low or very low fertility rates. The newest tabulations suggest that fertility may be rising in some countries. But does this signal a more general trend? Carl Haub, PRB's senior demographer, analyzed the data. Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | GLOBAL | SUMMARY REPORT | FERTILITY RATE | BIRTH RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | POPULATION PROJECTION | CHANGES | Developed Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 331484 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Cohort fertility patterns and breast cancer mortality among U.S. women, 1948 - 2003. Author: Krueger PM; Preston SH Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Apr 15;18(9):263-284. Abstract: Epidemiological research has shown that women who have early and numerous births have reduced risks of being diagnosed with breast cancer. We use U.S. Vital Statistics and Census data and age-period-cohort models to examine whether cohort fertility patterns are associated with breast cancer mortality rates among women aged 40 and older in 1948-2003. Cohorts marked by higher proportions childless at ages 15-24 and lower cumulative second birth rates at ages 15-29 have higher rates of breast cancer mortality. This is the first demonstration that cohort fertility patterns have left a clear imprint on trends in U.S. breast cancer mortality rates. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | BREAST CANCER | INCIDENCE | MORTALITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | BIRTH RATE | PARITY | VITAL STATISTICS | CENSUS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Cancer | Neoplasms | Diseases | Measurement | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Statistics Document Number: 326128 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality. Author: Moultrie TA; Dorrington R Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Sep 16;19(46):1635-1662. Abstract: Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | AIDS | HIV INFECTIONS | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | INDIRECT ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MORTALITY CHANGES | Africa | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality Document Number: 328096 |
| 8. Peer Reviewed Title: Austria: Persistent low fertility since the mid-1980s. Author: Prskawetz A; Sobotka T; Buber I; Engelhardt H; Gisser R Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(12):293-360. Abstract: This article offers an in-depth analysis of fertility in Austria, a country which has experienced a low and relatively stable fertility level and a gradual postponement of childbearing since the mid-1980s. We begin by summarising Austrian population trends in the post-World War II period and highlighting recent relatively high migration levels. We outline the long history of sub-replacement fertility and high childlessness in Austria and look in detail at recent parity-specific developments, trends in family size, delayed childbearing and persistent fertility differences by education level, country of origin and religious affiliation. The chapter then summarises main trends in family related behaviour, including the changing patterns of leaving parental home, the rise in cohabitation, the decline in marriage and the rise of divorce and the diversity in nonmarital childbearing, which has a long tradition in many parts of the country. We discuss the development of family policies in Austria and their relationship to fertility during the past decades. Social policies in Austria provide only a limited support for a reconciliation of childrearing and employment among mothers with children below the age of three. A combination of one of the highest family spending rates among the OECD countries and the low fertility rates indicate that structural constraints (such as the availability of childcare) constitute part of the explanation of low fertility. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AUSTRIA | HISTORICAL REVIEW | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | PARITY SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE | FAMILY SIZE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | RELIGIOUS ASPECTS | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | Europe, Central | Europe | Developed Countries | Birth Rate | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Religion | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 327730 |
| 9. Title: The shape of a fertility transition: an analysis of birth intervals in eastern Belgium. Author: Alter G; Oris M; Tyurin K Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 30 p. Abstract: We propose here a new way to look for evidence of fertility control. Most previous studies have relied on age-specific patterns of marital fertility, which do not provide sensitive measures of the timing of "stopping" behavior and do not consider "spacing" at all. We show that both stopping and spacing can be identified in birth interval survival curves. Analysis of data from nineteenth-century Belgium finds that changes in both stopping and spacing were at work. The fertility transition was characterized by an increase in stopping, but there was also a decrease in spacing, which began earlier and continued while stopping was spreading. We also introduce a statistical technique, known as the "cure model," which allows us to estimate the effects of covariates on stopping and spacing separately. (author's) Language: English Keywords: BELGIUM | SUMMARY REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BIRTH SPACING | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | CHILD SURVIVAL | MARRIAGE DURATION | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Planning | Population Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Survivorship | Length of Life | Mortality | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 317744 |
| 10. Title: Demography of the tribal groups of Rajasthan: 4. Selection intensity. Author: Bhasin MK; Nag S Source: Anthropologist. 2007 Apr;9(2):93-97. Abstract: Natural selection is one of the major evolutionary factors that brings about changes in the gene frequencies in a population through the action of differential fertility and mortality. Selection potential based on the differential fertility and mortality data have been computed for the major Scheduled Tribes of Rajasthan, using the methodology of Crow (1958) and Johnston and Kensinger (1971). It has been observed that irrespective of methodology, the index of total selection was the highest among Sahariyas while it was the lowest among Mina tribal group. The relative contribution of fertility to the index of total selection has been found exceeding that of mortality among Mina. The reverse appeared true among Kathodis, Damors and Garasias. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | TRIBES | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | MORTALITY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Research Methodology | Studies | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Population Dynamics Document Number: 320533 |
| 11. Title: Demography of the tribal groups of Rajasthan: 6. Regression analyses. Author: Bhasin MK; Nag S Source: Anthropologist. 2007 Apr;9(2):107-112. Abstract: Statistical tools mainly multiple regression have been utilised to study the impact of various ecological, biological and socio-economic variables on fertility, mortality and usage of family planning methods and various tribal groups of Rajasthan. Various variables show important bearing on the livebirths, infrant mortality and usage of family planning methods. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | STATISTICAL STUDIES | TRIBES | FAMILY PLANNING | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | MORTALITY | DEATH RATE | UTILIZATION OF HEALTH CARE | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Studies | Research Methodology | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 320536 |
| 12. Title: Young women and childbearing in Africa: the new skepticism. Author: Casterline JB; Chalasani S Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 3 p. Abstract: This paper examines the fertility of young women in sub-Saharan Africa using recent DHS surveys. We consider desired fertility, achieved fertility, and the intersection of the two, in particular unwanted fertility. A starting-point for this research is the following estimates of the incidence of unwanted first births: Ethiopia (2000) 11%; Ghana (2003) 18%; Kenya (2003) 20%; Malawi (2000) 17%; Namibia (2000) 30%; Nigeria (2003) 8%; Uganda (2000-01) 10%; Zambia (2001-02) 24%. These are stunning figures for any contemporary non-Western society, and especially African societies with their deeply-rooted aversion to childlessness. And, indeed, most of the young women who declare their first birth unwanted also express a desire to have a child in the future, and their average ideal number of children that exceeds 3.0. Hence it would be an error to take the figures above as an expression of a lifetime goal to remain childless. It is, nevertheless, remarkable that such high percentages of young women are prepared to say that their first birth was "unwanted". Equivalent levels are not observed in previous surveys in Africa; this is a radical departure from the past. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | SUMMARY REPORT | FERTILITY SURVEYS | INCIDENCE | WOMEN | AGE FACTORS | PREGNANCY, UNWANTED | FIRST BIRTH | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | Africa | Developing Countries | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | Research Methodology | Population Characteristics | Reproductive Behavior | Pregnancy History | Fertility Changes Document Number: 317713 |
| 13. Title: Analysing fertility from demographic surveillance system data. Application to the Niakhar site, Senegal. Author: Delaunay V; Marra A; Levi P Source: Paris, France, Centre Population et Developpement [CEPED], 2007. [75] p. (Collections du CEPED. Clefs pour) Abstract: The purpose of this handbook is to offer a standardised analysis of fertility that can be replicated more or less completely using data from the various existing DSSs. It is a methodological document, designed to contribute to better use of DSS data and to facilitate comparative analysis of different DSSs. It describes the particularities of this type of data and presents some of its particular analytical procedures. Part One describes the characteristics of a DSS. Part Two proposes a standardisation of the concepts and indicators. Parts 3 to 6 describe the analytical procedures. These are applied here to fertility, but can be extrapolated for analysing other phenomena. They are derived from what is called cross-sectional demographic analysis, as opposed to longitudinal analysis. Cross-sectional analysis concerns a defined time interval whereas longitudinal analysis involves monitoring records in the form of reproductive history, marital history, residential history etc. The procedures described are then illustrated in Part 7 with an analysis of data from the demographic surveillance system in Niakhar, Senegal. The main calculations are programmed using the Foxpro or Stata software packages. They are shown in the annexes. To use them on different databases, they must be adapted to the structure of the data. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: SENEGAL | MANUAL | DEMOGRAPHERS | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | DATA COLLECTION | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | Developing Countries | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Demography | Social Sciences | Science | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Marriage | Nuptiality Document Number: 308765 |
| 14. Title: Actual, intended, and appropriate family size in Israel: trends, attitudes and policy implications: a preliminary report. Author: DellaPergola S Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 51 p. Abstract: Israel's population reflects a unique combination of immigration and high fertility. Demographic trends impact on Israel's regional and global political relations. With TFRs of 4.0 for Arabs and 2.7 for Jews in 2005, Israel's fertility stood much above Europe, America, and some Mid-Eastern countries. This report examines Jewish (79% of Israel's total population) fertility patterns and attitudes based on a 2005 national survey of women and men at reproductive ages, married or in stable unions. We compare actual, intended, and appropriate family sizes in different demographic, socioeconomic and cultural contexts. Diffuse gaps exist between ideal perceptions (focusing on 3-4 children) and actual performances (2-3 children). Cultural factors, namely religiosity, constitute important determinants of relatively high and stable fertility levels. Attention is given to gaps between intended and appropriate family size. Analysis of the determinants of these discrepancies provides important clues on the amount and causes of firmness and fluidity in fertility norms and decisions. Perceptions of incentives and constraints to family size provide clues to developing innovative approaches to social policies. Private motives prevail over public motives as a background to family growth. Population policies are expected to allow for attaining the wanted number of children while at the same time satisfying the quest for child quality and women's equitable status. Israel's prevailing policies of transfer payments do not meet a widespread demand for children grounded on a quest for better early childcare, cheaper education, the possibility to move to better housing, and provisions for working women. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ISRAEL | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FAMILY SIZE | PERCEPTION | POPULATION POLICY | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | INFORMATION SOURCES | Developed Countries | Middle East | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Fertility | Economic Factors | Information Document Number: 317296 |
| 15. Title: Religiosity and fertility differences in the contemporary U.S.: evidence from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. Author: Hayford S; Morgan SP Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 36 p. Abstract: Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), we show that women who report that religion is "very important" in their everyday life have both higher fertility and higher intended fertility than those saying religion is "somewhat important" or "not important." Further, net of intended fertility, factors such as unwanted fertility, age at childbearing, or degree of fertility postponement seem not to contribute to these religiosity differentials in fertility. This answer prompts more fundamental questions: what is the nature of this greater "religiosity"? And why do the more religious want more children? Using items available in the 2002 NSFG, we show that those saying religion is more important have more traditional gender and family attitudes and that these attitudinal differences account for a substantial part of the initial fertility differential. We speculate regarding other contributing causes. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | SURVEYS | WOMEN | FAMILY RESEARCH | FERTILITY CHANGES | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | RELIGION | BIRTH RATE | BELIEFS | ATTITUDES | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Culture | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 317350 |
| 16. Title: The value of children in Palestine and Turkey: Differences and the consequences for fertility. Author: Klaus D; Suckow J; Nauck B Source: Current Sociology. 2007 Jul;55(4):527-544. Abstract: Recent data on fertility rates indicate tremendous differences between Palestine and Turkey: whereas the total fertility rate has decreased remarkably over the last few decades in Turkey, a rather stable, high fertility rate can be observed for Palestine. This study applies a reconceptualization of the value of children approach to explain this difference. Analyses were performed using a sample of 249 Palestinian and 622 Turkish mothers from the 2002 international Value of Children study. In a first step, it is revealed that in Palestine children are more important for parents' comfort and social esteem than in Turkey, while only slight country differences are found with respect to children's affection value. This is in line with the study's hypotheses. However, in a second step, the country-specific value of children is proved to be of only very limited predictive power with regard to the birth of children of different parity, which contradicts the expectations. A more detailed analysis suggests that it is rational to follow cultural routines with respect to children in Palestine but not in Turkey. (author's) Language: English Keywords: WEST BANK | GAZA | TURKEY | RESEARCH REPORT | CHILD | FERTILITY | CHILD WORTH | VALUE ORIENTATION | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Developing Countries | Middle East | Europe, Southeastern | Europe | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 313677 |
| 17. Title: Traditional gender values and adolescent fertility expectations in Ethiopia. Author: Lindstrom DP; Hogan DP; Hadley C; Hailemariam A Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. [8] p. Abstract: In this paper we examine the influence of traditional gender values, education, family and peer relations, and community context on young people's family size expectations in a sample of Ethiopian youth. In particular, we test whether the influence of traditional gender values on family size expectations varies by level of education and by the prevalence of traditional gender values among other youth in the community. We use survey data for 2,172 never married adolescents age 13-17 collected by the Jimma Longitudinal Family Survey of Youth (JLFSY). The JLFSY study area includes a regional city, three outlying rural towns, and surrounding rural communities in the coffee growing region of southwestern Ethiopia. Preliminary analyses indicate that the influence of traditional gender values on expected family size is highly conditioned by the level of schooling and the community context. Education reduces the influence of traditional values, whereas living in a community where traditional values are widespread magnifies the influence of individual values. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | SUMMARY REPORT | ADOLESCENTS | FEMALE ROLE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | MARRIAGE | ATTITUDES | VALUE ORIENTATION | EDUCATION | GENDER ISSUES | FAMILY SIZE, EXPECTED | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Behavior | Behavior | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Nuptiality | Psychological Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household Document Number: 317715 |
| 18. Title: The importance of ethnicity: fertility and ethnicity in West Africa. Draft. Author: Nahmias P Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 43 p. Abstract: Africa is often the neglected stepchild of Eurocentric demographic transition theory. The weak nation-state, extended kinship networks and lasting socio-cultural supports for elevated fertility have often challenged demographers. This paper addresses the lack of Africa-specific fertility research, and examines the importance of ethnicity in determining current fertility in West Africa. Utilizing recent DHS surveys, I look at the fertility behavior of ethnic groups spanning more than one country in the region, with current fertility as the dependent variable. I fit models for each country separately in the first analysis, followed by pooled fixed effects models for all countries in the second analysis. The results point to the relative importance of the nation-state rather than ethnicity in determining fertility levels. However, ethnicity is still an important determinant within countries and for certain ethnic groups. (author's) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA, WESTERN | LITERATURE REVIEW | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | ETHNIC GROUPS | MINORITY GROUPS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | KINSHIP NETWORKS | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Fertility Changes | Economic Factors Document Number: 317725 |
| 19. Title: The varying value of children: Empirical results from eleven societies in Asia, Africa and Europe. Author: Nauck B; Klaus D Source: Current Sociology. 2007 Jul;55(4):487-503. Abstract: Using data from the Value of Children (VOC) replication study in 2002/3, the value of children for their parents is investigated cross-culturally for different age groups in 11 countries (South Korea, People's Republic of China, Indonesia, India, Palestine, Israel, Turkey, South Africa, Ghana, Germany and the Czech Republic). As a prerequisite, the cross-national equivalence of the VOC measurement is established in calculating the overall and the particular country-specific factorial structures. The analysis results in a three-dimensional structure of the VOC, namely comfort, social esteem and affect. This structure is replicated for every national group, and the resulting scales are of high internal consistency as revealed by the respective alpha coefficients. Additionally, the data are also tested for culture-specific response styles, for which the final VOC comparisons are controlled by means of a bias index. The findings indicate children's importance for comfort and esteem to be highest in high-fertility countries with lineage-based kinship systems and low affluence, while it is lowest in low-fertility countries with high affluence and a state-based insurance system. Affect is very high across all countries with only minor variations. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ASIA | EUROPE | AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | CHILD | CHILD WORTH | FERTILITY | BIAS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | VALUE ORIENTATION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | Developing Countries | Developed Countries | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Population Dynamics | Error Sources | Measurement | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 313678 |
| 20. Title: Family allowances and fertility: socio-economic and religious differentials. Author: Schellekens J Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 48 p. Abstract: Although micro-economic theory predicts that cash benefits will increase fertility, empirical studies generally find a weak, although positive, relationship between cash benefits and fertility. Cash benefits may be more cost-effective, when they target certain sub-populations. One such sub-population, it has been suggested, consists of low-income families. This paper presents the results of an analysis of socio-economic differentials in the effect of family allowances on the fertility of Israeli women using birth histories of women in the last two Israeli censuses of 1983 and 1995. With this kind of sample size it is not only possible to study socio-economic differentials in the effect of family allowances on the likelihood of having a third birth, but also of having a fourth, fifth, or sixth birth. Assuming the existence of economies of scale in a family, the cost of the fifth or sixth child should be lower than the cost of the third or fourth. Thus, child allowances may have a larger effect on the birth of higher birth-order children, since their cost would be lower than those of lower birth-order children. Hence, separate analyses will be performed for each parity. At the higher parities, most couples are religious. Hence, the second aim of this paper is to study religious differentials in the effect of family allowances. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ISRAEL | RESEARCH REPORT | CENSUS | LOW INCOME POPULATION | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | FAMILY SIZE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | RELIGION | FEES | FERTILITY | Developed Countries | Middle East | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Economic Factors | Family Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Financial Activities Document Number: 317353 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Unexpected low prevalence of HIV among fertile women in Luanda, Angola. Does war prevent the spread of HIV? Author: Strand RT; Dias LF; Bergstrom S; Andersson S Source: International Journal of STD and AIDS. 2007 Jul;18(7):467-471. Abstract: We studied HIV prevalence and risk factors for HIV infection among fertile women in Luanda for the purposes of obtaining background data for planning of interventions as well as to look into the association of armed conflicts and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. The HIV-1 prevalence was 1.7% in an antenatal care group (n = 517) and 1.9% in a family planning group (n = 518). Socioeconomic and sexual background factors did not significantly differ HIV-positive from HIV-negative women. Data on armed conflict factors were matched with HIV prevalence figures among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. The level of armed conflicts was found to be inversely related to HIV prevalence. The low HIV seroprevalence in Luanda is in sharp contrast to the capitals of neighbouring countries. While the spread of HIV may have been hampered by the long armed conflict in the country, it is feared to increase rapidly with the return of soldiers and refugees in a post-war situation. The challenge for preventive actions is urgent. This example may be relevant to other areas with a recent end-of-war situation. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ANGOLA | RESEARCH REPORT | PREVALENCE | HIV INFECTIONS | PREGNANCY | WAR | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | PROGRAM DESIGN | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Measurement | Research Methodology | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Reproduction | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Programs | Organization and Administration Document Number: 313689 |
| 22. Title: Fertility and religiousness among European Muslims. Author: Westoff CF; Frejka T Source: [Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 24 p. Abstract: There seems to be a popular belief that Muslim fertility in Europe is much higher than that of non-Muslims. Part of this belief stems from the general impression of high fertility in some Muslim countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa. This notion is typically transferred to Muslims living in Europe with their increasing migration along with concerns about numbers and assimilability into European society. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | MIDDLE EAST | ASIA | AFRICA | SUMMARY REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | CENSUS | MINORITY GROUPS | ISLAM | RELIGION | FERTILITY | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | FAMILY RESEARCH | VALUE ORIENTATION | Developed Countries | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Statistics | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Family and Household | Psychological Factors | Behavior Document Number: 317354 |
| 23. Peer Reviewed Title: The distribution of consecutive closed birth intervals in females in Uttar Pradesh. Author: Yadava RC; Sharma SS Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2007 Mar;39(2):189-199. Abstract: Most studies of closed birth intervals are regarding their variation at specific orders among females. This paper attempts to study the nature of the distributions of consecutive closed birth intervals. Data from the Uttar Pradesh National Family Health Survey 1998-99 (NFHS-2) were analysed. It was found that, under certain assumptions, the postpartum amenorrhoea period and menstruating interval are negatively associated, indicating that socio-cultural factors are affecting the menstruating interval. (author's) Language: English Keywords: INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | DATA ANALYSIS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | BIRTH INTERVALS | POSTPARTUM | AMENORRHEA | MENSTRUATION | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Fertility | Puerperium | Reproduction | Menstruation Disorders | Diseases Document Number: 308418 |
| 24. Title: Expectations of Europeans towards family policy and the impact of desired support on fertility levels. Author: Avramov D; Cliquet R Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2006;42:13-26. Abstract: On the basis of information gathered from 35,000 women and men across 14 European countries, we first look at attitudes towards fertility, children, and population dynamics. Then we analyse the expectations about the number of children people wish to have and expectations towards public policies to support them as parents. Finally, we assess the possible demographic effects of policy measures that people wish and expect to benefit from. Most people are in favour of many traditional family policy measures. The possible effects of such policies on fertility are estimated to be modest albeit not negligible. The general conclusion is that the overall effect of the 13 traditional policy measures on increasing the number of children may be estimated at between 6 percent and 13 percent. The general scientific insight leads us to a conclusion that a substantial and long-lasting effect of policy measures to enable people to have the number of children they wish can only be expected from a comprehensive change in the labour market conditions and related enhancement of opportunities for individuals to manage their life course in innovative ways. An important asset over which people have relatively little control, up until the age at retirement, is time. Prolonged education, more-or-less long unemployment episodes, establishment in employment, postponement of parenthood, first birth in late 20s and/or experience of sub-fecundity in mid-30, excessive pressure on time in mid-life, and long years of inactivity in retirement, are features of dysfunctional economy of time in modern society. The future fertility levels may be expected to be determined by the economy of time as life s capital and not just by selected palliate measures. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | DATA ANALYSIS | MEN | WOMEN | ATTITUDES | FERTILITY | POPULATION DYNAMICS | FAMILY SIZE | FAMILY POLICY | FERTILITY RATE | EMPLOYMENT | TIME FACTORS | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Birth Rate | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 308375 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: Consumer behaviour and contraceptive decisions: resolving a decades-long puzzle. Author: Campbell M Source: Journal of Family Planning and Reproductive Health Care. 2006 Oct;32(4):241-244. Abstract: Demographers' theoretical explanations for fertility decline have been based for decades on an assumption that couples make family size decisions influenced by a changing balance between costs and benefits of childbearing, resulting in parents' reduced demand for children. It has been widely assumed that these decisions are based on changes in social or economic factors, such as increased education, wealth or economic opportunities, or urbanisation, or other related factors in their lives. However, a number of situations in developing countries have been documented showing that contraceptive prevalence rose more rapidly than such theories could account for. In some instances desired family size changed when contraception became available, and in others women who said they did not want to use contraception adopted a method when the option to use it arrived. We have reviewed the cases of this kind that are published in the demographic literature, and we offer a plausible explanation grounded in research on consumer behaviour. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | INTERVIEWS | WOMEN | FAMILY SIZE, DESIRED | REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR | DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTIVENESS | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Data Collection | Research Methodology | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Family Planning Program Evaluation | Family Planning Programs Document Number: 307078 |
| 26. Title: The estimation of unwanted fertility: development of a new method. Author: Casterline JB; El-Zeini LO Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 39 p. Abstract: The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including the Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy, and they are used in the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet the existing methods, by common agreement, possess important deficiencies. We have developed a new method for the estimation of unwanted fertility that in most settings will suffer from less downward bias than existing methods. The method is simple to apply and makes minimal data demands, in particular relying on the most valid and reliable attitudinal item (prospective fertility preferences). Illustrative results are presented from application of the new estimator to six recent DHS surveys. In all six countries, the new estimator yields substantially higher estimates of unwanted fertility than existing methods. This paper develops the new estimator further and considers several potential sources oferror: a strategy for calculating an unwanted TFR is proposed; robustness of the estimator to trends in fertility preferences is assessed; and sampling errors are calculated. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | ASIA | AFRICA | AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | AFRICA, NORTH | LATIN AMERICA | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | UNWANTED BIRTHS | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | MENTAL HEALTH | HEALTH | MATERNAL MORTALITY | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | North America | Americas | Developed Countries | Developing Countries | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Economic Factors | Mortality | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Family Planning Document Number: 316751 |
| 27. Title: How many children does it take to replace their parents? Variation in replacement fertility as an indicator of child survival and gender status. Author: Engelman R; Leahy E Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 21 p. Abstract: Replacement fertility is a key demographic concept often misconstrued as a constant 2.1 children per woman. Actually it varies by population and over time, from as low as 2.06 children per woman to well over 3. High replacement fertility mostly reflects low survival of female infants (i.e. future childbearers) to their own reproductive age. High sex ratios at birth can also raise replacement fertility values somewhat. Replacement fertility is generally perceived as relevant only to population equilibrium or decline. Its variation can, however, illuminate child and adolescent survival and some aspects of female status when its components are disaggregated. Those who study and work on population can clarify for policymakers the importance of tracking and publicizing variation and change in replacement fertility rates. This concept can then evolve from a hypothetical "target" on which total fertility rates should converge to an indicator of young people's health and female well-being. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | SEX RATIO | CHILD SURVIVAL | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | PUBLIC HEALTH | RECOMMENDATIONS | DATA COLLECTION | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Population Characteristics | Survivorship | Length of Life | Mortality | Population Decrease | Birth Rate | Fertility | Health | Research Methodology Document Number: 316997 |
| 28. Title: Theoretical and methodological problems in researching short-term fluctuations in fertility: The model for evaluating the impact of societal instability. Author: Frantsuz Y Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 30 p. Abstract: Short-term fluctuations in fertility remain one of the most under-researched areas of demography. There are many examples of how short-term fluctuations in fertility failed to be adequately explained within existing theoretical framework. For instance, at the period from early 80-s to late 90-s Sweden had experienced fertility swings that were stronger than in any other Western country. Total Fertility Rate in Sweden rose from its lowest-ever level of about 1.6 in 1983 to around 2.1 in 1990-92 and then dropped to a new low of about 1.5 in 1997. Explanations point to a worsening economy and cutting in social welfare, however, leave an open question of why fertility swings of that steepness were not matched by European countries with similar or worse economic conditions. Especially, since by some accounts, fertility in Sweden had declined before the benefits were trimmed. Short-term fluctuations in fertility in the former USSR during mid-80s also puzzled demographers. In 1981, the government of thiscommunist state had introduced a pronatalistic population policy containing such measures as partially paid maternity leaves, tax deductions for families with two and more children, and other bonuses. For several years fertility showed a steady increase, and then started to decline. This pattern was typical for all countries that instituted similar population policies such as France, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Eastern Germany and Poland. A puzzle emerged in 1985 when fertility suddenly started to increase again, reaching its peak in 1986, and then turned back to decline. This trend showed up across most regions of the country, both in urban and rural areas. While there are many attempts to explain the "mystery of 1986", there has yet to be a clear understanding of the social factors that produced these short-term fluctuations in fertility. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: SWEDEN | SUMMARY REPORT | METHODOLOGICAL STUDIES | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | POPULATION POLICY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Europe, Northern | Europe | Developed Countries | Fertility | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate Document Number: 316837 |
| 29. Title: The impact of first birth trends on fertility in developed countries: a cohort analysis. Author: Frejka T; Sardon JP Source: [Unpublished] 2006. Presented at the Population Association of America, 2006 Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, California, March 30 - April 1, 2006. 25 p. Abstract: The present paper is intended to analyze in detail one crucial element of contemporary childbearing trends: the levels and trends of first births in developed countries. It is part of a larger project which has been analyzing childbearing trends and prospects in advanced countries using the cohort method. The project has been in progress during the past six years. The project analyzes a body of data on fertility for a large number of cohorts in 35 countries. More specifically, in the overall research project data were analyzed for a majority of European countries and for major overseas countries with populations that were principally of European origin and for Japan. These data were gathered at the Institut National d'Études Démographiques in Paris since the end of the 1970s and since 1996 by the Observatoire Démographique Européen, which was founded by Gérard Calot and of which Jean-Paul Sardon has been director in recent years. In addition we have obtained data for several non-European low-fertility countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | DATA ANALYSIS | FIRST BIRTH | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | FERTILITY RATE | Research Methodology | Pregnancy History | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate Document Number: 316989 |
| 30. Title: Investigation of a unit non-response adjustment procedure: the case of the urban fertility survey, Italy, 2001-2002. Author: Giraldo A; Zuanna GD Source: Popualtion-E. 2006 May-Jun;61(3):295-307. Abstract: The aim of this short paper is to present a two-stage procedure to correct unit non-response selection problems. At the first stage, a simple self-compiled questionnaire is administered to a sample of students attending school. They are then asked to hand their mothers a more complex questionnaire which they must bring back to school. By linking the two questionnaires, we manage to solve nonresponse selection problems by means of the same statistical techniques used to control attrition in panel surveys. In order to implement this procedure, most of the boys and girls at the eligible age must attend school regularly and be able to fill in the questionnaire at school with some elementary but correct information about their parents or relatives (i.e., the people who should fill in the questionnaire at home). The merit of our proposal is to solve the unit nonresponse problem by collecting, in an indirect way, more information on nonrespondents. Moreover the statistical techniques used in panel surveys enhance the efficient use of additional information on non-respondents. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: ITALY | SUMMARY REPORT | WORLD FERTILITY SURVEYS | QUESTIONNAIRES | SAMPLING STUDIES | ERROR SOURCES | SAMPLING ERRORS | NONRESPONDENTS | MOTHERS | STUDENTS | URBAN POPULATION | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | STANDARDS | Europe, Southern | Europe | Developed Countries | Fertility Surveys | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Studies | Research Methodology | Measurement | Parents | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Education | Population Characteristics Document Number: 308393 |
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