1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Religious socialisation and fertility: transition to third birth in the Netherlands. Author: Berghammer C Source: European Journal of Population. 2009 Aug;25(3):297-324. Abstract: Although previous studies have demonstrated that religious people in Europe have larger families, the role played by religious socialization in the context of contemporary fertility behavior has not yet been analysed in detail. This contribution specifically looks at the interrelation between religious socialisation and current religiosity and their impact on the transition to the third child for Dutch women. It is based on data of the first wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002-2004) and uses event history analysis. The transitions to first, second and third birth are modeled jointly with a control for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings provide evidence for an impact of women’s current church attendance as well as religious socilisation measured by their fathers’ religious affiliation, when they were teenagers. A religious family background remains influential even when a woman has stopped attending church. The effects of religious indicators strengthen over cohorts. Moreover, the combined religious make-up of the respondent’s parents also significantly determines the progression of the third child. Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS | RELIGION | SOCIAL BEHAVIOR | CULTURE | FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Europe, Western | Europe | Developed Countries | Demographic Analysis | Research Methodology | Sociocultural Factors | Behavior | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population Document Number: 339899 |
| 2. Peer Reviewed Title: Opportunity for natural selection among the Indian population: secular trend, covariates and implications. Author: Gautam RK Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2009 Jul 23;:1-41. Abstract: Crow's index is widely used for indirect quantitative estimation of natural selection using birth and death rates. The present investigation is based on 179 studies among 144 different endogamous communities belonging to nineteen states and six geographical regions of India, categorized into six social groups. These studies appeared in 33 different years over six decades (1956 to 2007). The secular trend in Crow's index (It) and its mortality and fertility components (Im and If) shows a gradual decline in It and radical shift in the relative contributions of Im and If. Before 1990 the opportunity for natural selection was mainly determined by differential pre-reproductive mortality (Im), whereas after 1990 it has been determined by differential fertility (If). To find out the covariates of It, Im and If sixteen socio-demographic variables were considered, and nine were found to be significantly correlated with It: total dependency ratio, decadal growth rate 1991-2001, young age dependency ratio, crude death rate, total fertility rate, child mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate, old age dependency ratio and decadal growth rate 1981-1991. On the basis of multivariate stepwise regression analysis, female literacy emerged as one of the most important predictors of It. The declining trend of It, Im and If shows that the Indian population is passing through the demographic transition. Language: English Keywords: INDIA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | RESEARCH REPORT | DATA COLLECTION | STATISTICAL REGRESSION | TRIBES | MOTHERS | CASTE | POPULATION GENETICS | FERTILITY | MORTALITY | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Asia, Southern | Asia | Developing Countries | Geographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Data Analysis | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Parents | Family Relationships | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Genetics | Biology | Population Dynamics | Microeconomic Factors Document Number: 342293 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: Traces of the second demographic transition in four selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe: union formation as a demographic manifestation. Author: Hoem JM; Kostova D; Jasilioniene A; Muresan C Source: European Journal of Population. 2009 Aug;25(3):239-255. Abstract: Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990. Language: English Keywords: RUSSIA | EUROPE | ROMANIA | HUNGARY | BULGARIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DATA ANALYSIS | MARRIAGE | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | MARRIAGE AGE | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Developed Countries | Europe, Southeastern | Europe, Central | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Research Methodology | Nuptiality | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Marriage Patterns Document Number: 339896 |
4.  Peer Reviewed Title: Mortality profiles in a country facing epidemiological transition: An analysis of registered data. Author: Huicho L; Trelles M; Gonzales F; Mendoza W; Miranda J Source: BMC Public Health. 2009 Feb 2;9(47):39 p. Abstract: Sub-national analyses of causes of death and time-trends help to define public health policy priorities. They are particularly important in countries undergoing epidemiological transition like Peru. There are no studies exploring Peruvian national and regional characteristics of such epidemiological transition. We aimed to describe Peru's national and regional mortality profiles between 1996 and 2000. Registered mortality data for the study period were corrected for underregistration following standardized methods. Main causes of death by age group and by geographical region were determined. Departmental mortality profiles were constructed to evaluate mortality transition, using 1996 data as baseline. Annual cumulative slopes for the period 1996-2000 were estimated for each department and region. For the study period non-communicable diseases explained more than half of all causes of death, communicable diseases more than one third, and injuries 10.8% of all deaths. Lima accounted for 32% of total population and 20% of total deaths. The Andean region, with 38% of Peru´s population, accounted for half of all country deaths. Departmental mortality predominance shifted from communicable diseases in 1996 towards non-communicable diseases and injuries in 2000. Maternal and perinatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies and nutritional anaemia declined markedly in all departments and regions. Infectious diseases decreased in all regions except Lima. In all regions acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of death, but their proportion ranged from 9.3% in Lima and Callao to 15.3% in the Andean region. Tuberculosis and injuries ranked high in Lima and the Andean region. Peruvian mortality shows a double burden of communicable and noncommunicable, with increasing importance of non-communicable diseases and injuries. This challenges national and sub-national health system performance and policy making. Language: English Keywords: PERU | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CAUSES OF DEATH | DEATH RATE | MORTALITY | AGE FACTORS | DISEASES | DEFICIENCY DISEASES | TUBERCULOSIS | ACCIDENTS AND INJURIES | South America, Western | South America | Latin America | Americas | Developing Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Nutrition Disorders | Infections | Health Document Number: 329534 |
| 5. Title: Fertility development in the Baltic countries since 1990: a transformation in the context of long-term trends. Author: Katus K; Puur A; Sakkeus L; Poldma A Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2009;44:7-32. Abstract: The article addresses the transformation of fertility patterns in the Baltic countries since the turn of the 1990s, in the context of long-term trends. The purpose of the study is to compare the change in fertility level, parity distribution, timing of childbearing, and the connection between marriage and childbearing in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analyze the position of the Baltic countries in a broader European perspective. Our results indicate a salient role of tempo effects in the sharp decline of period fertility measures that occurred in the region in the 1990s. Tempo-adjusted measures indicate moderately low fertility levels of 1.6-1.7 children per woman in the region. In the recent years, fertility levels have been rising in all three countries with recuperation being more vigorous in Estonia and less so in Lithuania. Estonia and Latvia also appear more advanced in terms of the spread of childbearing among cohabiting couples, with the proportion of non-marital births comparable to Scandinavian countries. The article discusses the factors underlying the observed similarities and dissimilarities in fertility patterns, pointing to the plausible demographic path dependence. Language: English Keywords: ESTONIA | RESEARCH REPORT | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | AGE FACTORS | FERTILITY RATE | Europe, Eastern | Europe | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 331310 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: Italy's path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories. Author: Kertzer DI; White MJ; Bernardi L; Gabrielli G Source: European Journal of Population. 2009 Feb;25(1):89-115. Abstract: The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered. Language: English Keywords: ITALY | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS | FERTILITY | SOCIAL CHANGE | GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | Developed Countries | Europe, Southern | Europe | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Demographic Analysis | Research Methodology | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 331297 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: The burden of non-communicable diseases in South Africa. Author: Mayosi BM; Flisher AJ; Lalloo UG; Sitas F; Tollman SM; Bradshaw D Source: Lancet. 2009 Sep 12;374(9693):934-47. Abstract: 15 years after its first democratic election, South Africa is in the midst of a profound health transition that is characterised by a quadruple burden of communicable, non-communicable, perinatal and maternal, and injury-related disorders. Non-communicable diseases are emerging in both rural and urban areas, most prominently in poor people living in urban settings, and are resulting in increasing pressure on acute and chronic health-care services. Major factors include demographic change leading to a rise in the proportion of people older than 60 years, despite the negative effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy. The burden of these diseases will probably increase as the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy takes effect and reduces mortality from HIV/AIDS. The scale of the challenge posed by the combined and growing burden of HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases demands an extraordinary response that South Africa is well able to provide. Concerted action is needed to strengthen the district-based primary health-care system, to integrate the care of chronic diseases and management of risk factors, to develop a national surveillance system, and to apply interventions of proven cost-effectiveness in the primary and secondary prevention of such diseases within populations and health services. We urge the launching of a national initiative to establish sites of service excellence in urban and rural settings throughout South Africa to trial, assess, and implement integrated care interventions for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases. Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | RURAL AREAS | RURAL POPULATION | LOW INCOME POPULATION | PRIMARY HEALTH CARE | DISEASES | HEALTH SERVICES | QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | HIV PREVENTION | AIDS PREVENTION | INTEGRATED PROGRAMS | GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Health Services Evaluation | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration | Population Dynamics | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | AIDS Document Number: 342869 |
| 8. Title: Changes in fertility rates among Muslims in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Author: Zuehlke E Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2009 Apr. [1] p. Abstract: The number of Muslims worldwide is projected to grow over the next decade to reach one-quarter of the world's population, largely because of higher fertility among Muslim populations. Yet, it is simplistic to argue that there is a specifically Islamic pattern of fertility due solely to religious influence, says Mehtab Karim, a senior research adviser and senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and World Affairs. Karim visited PRB as part of its ongoing Policy Seminar series and presented findings based on the latest Demographic and Health Survey data from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. (Excerpt) Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | INDIA | PAKISTAN | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | RELIGION | ISLAM | FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CULTURE | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | POPULATION GROWTH | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | EDUCATIONAL STATUS | FAMILY PLANNING | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Economic Factors | Contraception | Socioeconomic Status Document Number: 331347 |
| 9. Title: World urbanization prospects: the 2007 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2008 Feb 26. [19] p. Abstract: Since 1988 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has been issuing every two years revised and updated estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations of all countries in the world and of their major urban agglomerations. This note presents the main findings of the 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects which are consistent with the size of the total population of each country as estimated or projected in the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects. The 2007 Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world for the period 1950-2050. The results are shown for development groups, six major areas (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania) and 21 regions. Data are further disaggregated for the 229 countries or areas of the world. The 2007 Revision also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2007 for the period 1950-2025. Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas and the population of cities are derived on the basis of national statistics. The most common source of data on the proportion urban and the population of cities and urban agglomerations is the population census. For some countries, the basic data are obtained from population registers or administrative statistics. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | SUMMARY REPORT | URBAN AREAS | RURAL AREAS | POPULATION PROJECTION | URBANIZATION | POPULATION GROWTH | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | URBAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | Geographic Factors | Population | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Population Distribution | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors Document Number: 324699 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: Population policy implementation in Nigeria, 1988-2003. Author: Adegbola O Source: Population Review. 2008;47(1):[48] p. Abstract: The first Nigerian Population Policy was written in 1988 to reduce population growth as a collaboration between the Federal Ministry of Health and the World Bank. Whether this policy was successful is in contention. Some schools of thought argue that it was unsuccessful due to cultural, religious and financial factors in play. However, a positive demographic change was noticed statistically after the policy was implemented. Achievement of policy goals was limited due to flaws in the implementation strategy adopted for the National Population Program as well as due to a cultural aversion to family planning in Northern Nigeria, among other factors. The success of the policy was greatest in Southern Nigeria where social advancement also played an integral role. This paper shows that the attitudes towards population growth differ between these two very important regions of one country. This paper also addresses, in great detail, the obstacles to the implementation of the 1988 policy, and analyzes why the policy was successful in a part of the country, but not in another. With a new Population Policy having been implemented in 2006, identifying the problems of the 1988 program implementation has limited value unless the learned lessons result in a greater determination by the upper echelons of government, the bureaucracy and the political class in the nation to reprogram efforts for the future. While the Federal Government has recently instituted reform agenda that cover economic, social and administrative reforms, the population sector, together with the political governance that will address the role of population size in allocation of resources and power, needs to be included in the reform agenda. (author's) Language: English Keywords: NIGERIA | CRITIQUE | POPULATION POLICY | GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS | POPULATION GROWTH | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POLICY DEVELOPMENT | IMPLEMENTATION | OBSTACLES | FAMILY PLANNING | ATTITUDES | FERTILITY CHANGES | Africa, Western | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Programs | Organization and Administration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Planning | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Fertility Document Number: 327571 |
| 11. Title: A rural Ethiopian population undergoing epidemiological transition over a generation: Butajira from 1987 to 2004. Author: Berhane Y; Wall S; Fantahun M; Emmelin A; Mekonnen W Source: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 2008 Jun;36(4):436-441. Abstract: The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors. A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years. The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials. This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | MORTALITY | MORTALITY DETERMINANTS | POPULATION DYNAMICS | EPIDEMIOLOGY | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Developing Countries | Studies | Research Methodology | Demographic Factors | Population | Public Health | Health Document Number: 327582 |
| 12. Title: Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Author: Bongaarts J Source: New York, New York, Population Council, 2008. 15 p. (Poverty, Gender, and Youth Working Paper No. 7) Abstract: Over the past quarter century fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until the replacement level is reached. However, recent evidence suggests that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple DHS surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility is lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s, and more than half the countries in transition in this region have stalled. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | TECHNICAL REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY CHANGES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Africa | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility Document Number: 325415 |
| 13. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Author: Bongaarts J Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2008 Jun;39(2):105-110. Abstract: Over the past quarter-century, fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until replacement level is reached. Recent evidence suggests, however, that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple Demographic and Health Surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility was lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s and that more than half the countries in transition in this region have stalled. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY CHANGES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Africa | Demographic Surveys | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Document Number: 326905 |
| 14. Peer Reviewed Title: Three fertility compromises and two transitions. Author: Caldwell JC Source: Population Research and Policy Review. 2008 Aug;27(4):427-446. Abstract: Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or "compromises" are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. Language: English Keywords: NEW ZEALAND | AUSTRALIA | UNITED KINGDOM | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | POPULATION POLICY | POPULATION THEORY | Developed Countries | Oceania | Europe, Western | Europe | North America | Americas | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Demography | Social Sciences | Science Document Number: 327927 |
| 15. Title: Fertility transition: forecast for demography. Author: Caputo M; Nicotra M; Gloria-Bottini E Source: Human Biology. 2008 Aug;80(4):359-76. Abstract: By the end of the 20th century most industrialized nations had undergone the so-called fertility transition, characterized by a reduction in fertility to below replacement level and a delay in age at initiation of child-bearing. An emerging concern is the severe economic and social consequences of this demographic decline. We present an overview of fertility changes in Italy in the second half of the 20th century and a mathematical model that may provide projections for the future of the demographic situation. Starting in 1950 the increment of the number of children born in Italy is initially positive; however, beginning in 1965 the trend suddenly becomes negative, and this negative trend further increased in 1975. A slight improvement is observed in 1980, followed by a stable situation beginning in 1987. Relevant socioeconomic and cultural events in Italy coincide with these variations in the fertility trend. Malnutrition, which had been endemic for centuries in some areas of central and southern Italy, disappeared rather abruptly in early 1960. The improvement in the economic situation was also associated with a decrease in illiteracy and with many sociocultural changes, with the emergence of new demands that decreased propensity for childbearing. The additional deceleration observed in 1975 corresponds to the diffusion of contraceptive procedures. The progression of sociocultural changes has led to a progressive liberation of women from the biological burden of childbearing. Two phenomena seem relevant in this context: women's emerging interest in entering the workforce and the possibility to disconnect sex from childbearing. The social function of feminism has overwhelmed the primary function of survival and diffusion of the species, giving rise to relevant and worrying demographic effects. However, the modern woman has an unconscious memory of her primary biological role, depending on both her genetic structure and cultural heritage, that should bring about a change in the present strong tendency to demographic decline. The basic notion of memory functions is widely recognized in sciences, for example, in the evolutionary theory of Darwin. Here, we introduce into the equations governing population growth a memory mechanism and a perturbation, and we estimate the reactions of the system to perturbations caused by environmental changes and subsequent delayed effects, such as those that appear in the birth rate beginning in 1965 and 1975. The mathematical modeling of the effects of perturbations of the fertility rate in the Italian population, with the introduction of a mathematical memory formalism, suggests that the effect is strongly reduced, with a relaxation time of about 10 years when the fertility rate approaches a stable value. Language: English Keywords: ITALY | HISTORICAL REVIEW | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Southern | Europe | Theoretical Models | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Economic Factors | Reproductive Behavior Document Number: 342321 |
| 16. Title: Population and development issues of Viet Nam. Author: Dang Nguyen Anh Source: Vietnam Population News. 2008 Nov-Dec;49:2-5. Abstract: As the fertility rate of Viet Nam keeps declining, the population is having changes in terms of size, structure and distribution. Viet Nam is moving from a young to old population country within the next 15 - 20 years. This will pose new challenges to chare and social security to the elderly. With an aim to sustain the replacement level fertility the population and family planning work is of great importance. Communication, counselling and provision of reproductive health services including family planning and STI, HIV, AIDS services, particularly to young persons, newly-wed couples, migrants and labourers should be strengthened together with continuation of contraceptive method mix and channels. Budget allocation should give priority to areas with high-fertility level and rapid population growth. In areas with a large number of migrants, a support fund is needed to meet migrants' needs. Apart from the above issues, international migration, climate and environment change and consequences in Viet Nam have not paid with due concern and comprehensive study. In the context of low fertility level, new and complicated population issues will emerge. Determinant factors affecting the country's population processes must be well understood and interpreted. At present, there has no a comprehensive population register for policy making, planning and management. Applied and operation research on population based on good data and methodologies should be carried out to formulate effective population policies. Language: English Keywords: VIETNAM | SUMMARY REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | FERTILITY DECLINE | POPULATION SIZE | FERTILITY CHANGES | FERTILITY RATE | MIGRATION | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements Document Number: 331299 |
| 17. Peer Reviewed Title: The path to replacement fertility in Egypt: Acceptance, preference, and achievement. Author: El-Zeini LO Source: Studies in Family Planning. 2008 Sep;39(3):161-176. Abstract: This study draws upon data from the 2004 Slow Fertility Transition survey, a follow-up to the 2003 Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey, to investigate obstacles to achieving replacement fertility. To account for the likelihood of embracing the two-child ideal, the analysis adopts a framework with the acronym APA: Acceptance of the two-child ideal, Preference for that ideal, and Achievement of that preference. The framework posits a hierarchy among the three and hypothesizes that each depends on a set of factors, including gender stratification, economic expectations, perception of the costs and benefits of having children, and the costs of fertility regulation. The results indicate that son preference and the perceived low cost of childrearing are major obstacles to the acceptance of the two-child family. Son preference, other discriminatory gender attitudes, optimistic economic expectations, and fear of contraceptive side effects are associated with a low preference for and ambivalence about having only two children. Given a decisive preference, lower socioeconomic status and strong son preference are the major obstacles to the achievement of the two-child ideal. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EGYPT | RESEARCH REPORT | SURVEYS | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | CHILD WORTH | PERCEPTION | SEX PREFERENCE | FEMALE ROLE | FERTILITY DETERMINANTS | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS | Developing Countries | Africa, North | Africa | Sampling Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Value Orientation | Social Behavior | Fertility | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 328153 |
| 18. Peer Reviewed Title: Summary and general conclusions: Childbearing trends and policies in Europe. Author: Frejka T; Sobotka T; Toulemon L; Hoem JM Source: Demographic Research. 2008 Jul 1;19(2):5-14. Abstract: European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest level since the Second World War. This study explores contemporary childbearing trends and policies in Europe, and gives detailed attention to the past two or three decades. We felt motivated to undertake this project because in many European countries, as well as for the European Union as a whole, the overall fertility level and its consequences are of grave concern and draw attention on the political stage. Our account focuses somewhat more on the previously state socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, where available knowledge about the impact on childbearing of the momentous political and economic transition that started in 1989 remains relatively scarce. As family formation and childbearing behaviour are inherent components of societal life, they were influenced and modified by the various political, economic, and social changes that took place in Europe during the past 60 years. There were also profound changes in norms, values, beliefs, and attitudes regarding family and childbearing, and these exerted additional effects on fertility and family trends. To identify such effects, this study pays much attention to the influence of social and family policies on fertility, to the influence of political and economic changes on fertility and family trends, and to the diverse ways changes in values, norms, and attitudes relate to the transformation in family-related behaviour in Europe. In the present chapter, we outline main issues discussed in the subsequent overview chapters, and summarize the main findings of the entire study. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | COHORT ANALYSIS | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FERTILITY CHANGES | SOCIAL CHANGE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | FAMILY SIZE | SOCIAL POLICY | FAMILY POLICY | POLITICAL FACTORS | ECONOMIC FACTORS | MIGRATION | Developed Countries | Research Methodology | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Reproductive Behavior | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Policy Document Number: 327712 |
| 19. Peer Reviewed Title: Dramatic fertility transition in Mongolia and its determinants: the demise of the pronatalist state. Author: Gereltuya A Source: Asia Pacific Population Journal. Aug;23(2):81-99. Abstract: The move from a centrally controlled economy to a market-driven economy has had strong political implications for family planning and fertility in Mongolia. Under socialist rule, Mongolia had a strong pronatalist population policy under which those families having children were provided with generous benefits. The changes made to these policies have had a considerable impact on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. In the mid-1970s, the country started to experience a dramatic decrease in the level of fertility, which intensified when the country moved towards a market economy. The country experienced a drop in its total fertility rate (TFR) from 7.2 children per woman (of reproductive age) in 1975 to about 3 children in 1995, and it has remained constant at about 2.3 children since that time. Relatively few studies have been carried out on fertility changes in Mongolia with explanations about their causes, primarily owing to a lack of data sources. The aim of this paper is to examine fertility changes in Mongolia with respect to the changes in population policies and changes in the proximate determinants of fertility that have occurred since the mid-1970s. Language: English Keywords: MONGOLIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION POLICY | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE | ABORTION LAW | FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY DECLINE | Developing Countries | Asia, Northern | Asia | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Marriage | Nuptiality | Contraception | Family Planning | Fertility Control, Postconception | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Fertility Changes Document Number: 331309 Notification |
| 20. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility transition and population ageing in the Asian and Pacific region. Author: Gubhaju B Source: Asia Pacific Population Journal. 2008 Aug;23(2):55-80. Abstract: This paper provides a general overview of population ageing in the context of fertility transition in Asia and the Pacific. Focusing on low-fertility countries, it highlights the implications of low fertility for the ageing process. Indicators of population ageing, such as changes in age structure, potential support ratio and the feminization of the elderly population, are presented to provide a better understanding of the overall situation. As the region is home to over 60 per cent of the global population and has been experiencing a rapid decline in fertility, the absolute size of the older population is a cause for major concern. While the overall population growth rate has been declining over time, the number of older persons is increasing at a faster rate. In addition to the increase in the number of older persons, gender disparity in improvements in life expectancy at birth is likely to result in a much higher percent age of females in the older age groups, particularly in the age group 80 years and older. It is therefore important for countries in the region to recognize the significance of ageing problems and to start formulating policies for the elderly given that it takes several decades for Government old-age pension schemes to mature and to operate at full scale. Language: English Keywords: ASIA | OCEANIA | RESEARCH REPORT | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Age Distribution | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality Document Number: 331308 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility decline driven by poverty: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Author: Gurmu E; Mace R Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 Jan;:[20] p. Abstract: Demographic transition theory states that fertility declines in response to development, thus wealth and fertility are negatively correlated. Evolutionary theory, however, suggests a positive relationship between wealth and fertility. Fertility transition as a result of industrialization and economic development started in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in Western Europe; and it extended to some of the Asian and Latin American countries later on. However, economic crises since the 1980s have been co-incident with fertility decline in sub-Sahara Africa and other developing countries like Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh in the last decade of the 20th century. A very low level of fertility is observed in Addis Ababa (TFR=1.9) where contraceptive prevalence rate is modest and recurrent famine as well as drought have been major causes of economic crisis in the country for more than three consecutive decades, which is surprising given the high rural fertility. Detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 2976 women of reproductive age (i.e. 15-49 years) residing in Addis Ababa were collected during the first quarter of 2003 using an event history calendar and individual women questionnaire. Controlling for the confounding effects of maternal birth cohort, education, marital status and accessible income level, the poor (those who have access to less than a dollar per day or 250 birr a month) were observed to elongate the timing of having first and second births, while relatively better-off women were found to have shorter birth intervals. Results were also the same among the ever-married women only model. More than 50% of women currently in their 20s are also predicted to fail to reproduce as most of the unmarried men and women are 'retreating from marriage' due to economic stress. Qualitative information collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews also supports the statistical findings that poverty is at the root of this collapse in fertility. Whilst across countries wealth and fertility have been negatively correlated, this study shows that within one uniform population the relationship is clearly positive. (author's) Language: English Keywords: ETHIOPIA | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | FOCUS GROUPS | URBAN POPULATION | WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT | EVER MARRIED | POVERTY | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE | FAMINE | DROUGHT | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Research Methodology | Data Collection | Population Characteristics | Population | Economic Development | Economic Factors | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Contraceptive Usage | Contraception | Family Planning | Food Supply | Natural Resources | Environment | Water Supply Document Number: 308629 |
| 22. Peer Reviewed Title: Effects of the fertility transition on birth seasonality in the Netherlands. Author: Haandrikman K; Van Wissen LJ Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 Sep;40(5):655-672. Abstract: Synchronous with the decline in fertility that took place in the post-war period in the Netherlands, patterns of birth seasonality changed as well. In this paper seasonal fluctuations in fertility in the Netherlands are examined using population register data for the period 1952 to 2005. The peak in births has changed from spring to summer and subsequently to August/September, thereby shifting from the European to the American pattern. The seasonal shift can be attributed to parity-specific changes. Before the transition, birth seasonality did not differ much between the different parities. In the transition period from higher to low fertility, differences between parities increased which persist up to today. At present, the overall seasonality pattern is determined by first births. Moreover, birth seasonality varies by maternal age. The findings stimulate the discussion on the role of planning as a cause of birth seasonality. Language: English Keywords: NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION REGISTER | SEASONAL VARIATION | PARITY | MATERNAL AGE | PLANNING | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Parental Age | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Organization and Administration Document Number: 308343 |
| 23. Title: Global aging and the demographic divide. Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Apr. [7] p. Abstract: In the latter half of the last century, the world's developed nations completed a long process of demographic transition. The field of demography describes this demographic transition as a shift from a period of high mortality, short lives, and large families to one with a longer life expectancy and far fewer children. This transformation took many centuries in Europe and North America as people moved from farms to cities; basic public health measures steadily reduced the risk of contagious disease; and modern medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths. In developing countries, this demographic transition is certainly underway, though these countries vary widely at their places along the spectrum. Very low birth rates and the resultant population decrease have received considerable media attention, particularly in Europe and parts of eastern Asia. In the past, when demographers projected national and global populations, the projections commonly assumed that birth rates would decline worldwide but only to the "two-child" family, i.e., two children per woman or per couple on average. An assumption that fertility would fall below this rate would have some unpleasant consequences: a decrease in population size and a population top-heavy with retired seniors who would depend upon the social taxes paid by a dwindling number of younger workers. While it may not have been desirable to project such a gloomy scenario in the past, this is exactly what has transpired in many countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors Document Number: 326012 |
| 24. Title: The graying of the great powers: Demography and geopolitics in the 21st century. Author: Jackson R; Howe N; Strauss R; Nakashima K Source: Washington, D.C., Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], 2008. 184 p. (Advance Proofs) Abstract: This report explores the geopolitical implications of "global aging"-the dramatic demographic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. Its viewpoint is that of the United States in particular and today's developed countries in general. Its timeframe is roughly the next half-century, from today through 2050. The report assesses how population aging and population decline in the developed world may affect the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security. The analysis not only considers the impact of the demographic trends on population numbers, wealth, and defense capability, it also explores how they could change the temperament of society (by affecting risk tolerance, voter behavior, job mobility, religious extremism, and family structure) - and thus change national goals themselves. The report also looks closely at how demographic trends in the developing world will shape the future global security environment-and the threats and opportunities they pose for today's graying great powers. This overview summarizes the report's main findings under two headings: findings about the demographic transformation and findings about its geopolitical implications. It also lays out the organization of the report and summarizes the ground covered in the different chapters. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | TECHNICAL REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION DECREASE | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | NATIONAL SECURITY | SOCIAL CHANGE | POLITICAL FACTORS | POLICY DEVELOPMENT | North America | Americas | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Planning | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326609 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: Decrease in sex difference in premature mortality during system transformation in Poland. Author: Kolodziej H; Lopuszanska M; Jankowska EA Source: Journal of Biosocial Science. 2008 Mar;40(2):297-312. Abstract: In recent years, sex differences in mortality have followed diverse patterns of change in developed countries. As there is no analogous evidence from Poland, the aim of this study was to describe the pattern of change in excess male mortality among Polish inhabitants aged 35-64 during 1995-2002, when the major socioeconomic transformation occurred, and compare it with sex differences in mortality observed in the late 1980s. During the study period, excess male mortality decreased significantly, independently of age and educational level. The reduction in mortality was observed in both sexes, but its magnitude was greater in men. These changes resulted mainly from a reduction in mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease and lung cancer in males and a concomitant increase in mortality rates due to lung cancer and suicides in females. Although, in general, excess male mortality decreased, social gradients related to this phenomenon increased. Subjects (in particularly men) who had graduated from university benefited the most, their magnitude of reduction in mortality rates being the greatest. Changes in social environment during the transformation period in Poland are suggested as major determinants of these changes, but further studies are needed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: POLAND | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | ADULTS | MORTALITY DECLINE | DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY | CAUSES OF DEATH | SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | Europe, Central | Europe | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Economic Factors Document Number: 323792 |
| 26. Peer Reviewed Title: Ethics in Public Health Research: Changing patterns of mortality among American Indians. Author: Kunitz SJ Source: American Journal of Public Health. 2008 Mar;98(3):404-411. Abstract: Mortality rates for American Indians (including Alaska Natives) declined for much of the 20th century, but data published by the Indian Health Service indicate that since the mid-1980s, age-adjusted deaths for this population have increased both in absolute terms and compared with rates for the White American population. This increase appears to be primarily because of the direct and indirect effects of type 2 diabetes. Despite increasing appropriations for the Special Diabetes Program for Indians, per capita expenditures for Indian health, including third-party reimbursements, remain substantially lower than those for other Americans and, when adjusted for inflation, have been essentially unchanged since the early 1990s. I argue that inadequate funding for health services has contributed significantly to the increased death rate. (author's) Language: English Keywords: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | SUMMARY REPORT | NATIVE AMERICANS | MORTALITY | DEATH RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DISEASES | DIABETES | CHANGES | CAUSES OF DEATH | FUNDS | Developed Countries | North America | Americas | Ethnic Groups | Cultural Background | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Financial Activities | Economic Factors Document Number: 324857 |
| 27. Peer Reviewed Title: Stages of the demographic transition from a child's perspective: Family size, cohort size, and children's resources. Author: Lam D; Marteleto L Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):225-252. Abstract: The demographic transition has played itself out with great regularity in developing countries over the last 50 years. Looking at a broad set of countries, a stylized version of the demographic transition is consistent with the empirical experience of most of the developing world. The transition begins with large and sustained declines in death rates, especially infant and child mortality. The immediate effect of this mortality decline is an increase in the number of surviving children at the family level and an increase in the total number of children at the population level. Mortality decline is eventually followed by the second key element of the transition, a decline in fertility, which in turn has effects on both family size and cohort size. These changes in family size and cohort size over the course of the demographic transition are the focus of this article. We develop a new characterization of stages of the transition, viewing the demographic changes from a child's perspective. As we show, dramatic changes in the numbers of siblings and the size of cohorts can occur during the demographic transition, changes with important implications for children's resources at the family level and the population level. These changes do not always move in the same direction, however, owing to the complex interaction of population momentum with falling fertility and mortality. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | MORTALITY DECLINE | FERTILITY DECLINE | FAMILY SIZE | CHILD MORTALITY | INFANT MORTALITY | INFANT MORTALITY CHANGES | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Mortality | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 327507 |
| 28. Title: The coming acceleration of global population ageing [letter] Author: Lutz W; Sanderson W; Scherbov S Source: Nature. 2008 Feb 7;451:716-719. Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by midcentury. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION PROJECTION | MEASUREMENT | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 326160 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: [The changing age distribution of the Brazilian population in the first half of the 21st century] A transição da estrutura etária da população brasileira na primeira metade do século XXI. Author: Magno de Carvalho JA; Rodriguez-Wong LL Source: Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2008 Mar;24(3):597-605. Abstract: Brazil is currently in an advanced stage of both the mortality and fertility transitions, which allows one to confidently forecast the age distribution and population size over the next four decades. Whereas the elderly population (>or= 65 years) will increase at high rates (2-4% per year), the young population will decline. According to United Nations projections, the elderly population will increase from 3.1% of the population in 1970 to 19% in 2050. Meanwhile, within the young and adult populations, growth rates will vary among different age groups, ranging from negative to positive values. The changing age distribution of the Brazilian population brings opportunities and challenges that could lead to serious social and economic issues if not dealt with properly in the coming decades. (author's) Language: Portuguese Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | AGE DISTRIBUTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | Developing Countries | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics Document Number: 326491 |
| 30. Title: Epidemiologic transition in an isolated indigenous community in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico. Author: Malina RM; Pena Reyes ME; Little BB Source: American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 2008 Sep;137(1):69-81. Abstract: The objective of the present study is to analyze age-specific mortality in a rural indigenous community in the throes of a secular increase in size in the Valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico, over 30 years, 1970-1999. Variation in mortality by age group was analyzed over time for evidence of an epidemiological transition. The seasonal rain pattern in the Valley of Oaxaca (83% from May through September) was evaluated for its relationship with mortality in wet and dry months. Mortality and causes of death changed markedly over the 30-year interval. Infant and preschool mortality, overall mortality, and causes of death changed from the 1970s through the 1990s. Prereproductive deaths (<15 years) predominated in the 1970s and were largely due to gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, with periodic outbreaks of measles. Deaths of adults 65+ years predominated in the 1990s and were largely due to degenerative diseases usually associated with aging. The marked changes in age and causes of death over the three decades (epidemiologic transition from Stage I to Stage II) occurred concurrently with significant secular increases in body size in children, adolescents, and young adults, highlighting improved health and nutritional conditions in the community which is in early Stage II of the demographic transition. The demographic transition to Stage II is a leading indicator (15-25 years lag) for the onset of the secular trend, while the epidemiologic transition to Stage II is a predictor that the secular increase is in process in the study community. Language: English Keywords: MEXICO | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | NUTRITION INDEXES | EPIDEMIOLOGY | INDIGENOUS POPULATION | COMMUNITY | SEASONAL VARIATION | GASTROINTESTINAL EFFECTS | DEATH RATE | AGE FACTORS | INFANT MORTALITY | North America | Americas | Developing Countries | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Nutrition | Health | Public Health | Population Characteristics | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Physiology | Biology | Mortality Document Number: 328835 |
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