1.  Peer Reviewed Title: Changing health status and health expectancies among older adults in China: gender differences from 1992 to 2002. Author: Gu D; Dupre ME; Warner DF; Zeng Y Source: Social Science and Medicine. 2009 Jun;68(12):2170-9. Abstract: Numerous studies document improvements in health status and health expectancies among older adults over time. However, most evidence is from developed nations and gender differences in health trends are often inconsistent. It remains unknown whether changes in health in developing countries resemble Western trends or whether patterns of health improvement are unique to the country's epidemiologic transition and gender norms. Using two nationally representative samples of non-institutionalized adults in China aged 65 years and older, this study investigates gender differences in the improvements in disability, chronic disease prevalence, and self-rated health from 1992 to 2002. Results from multivariate logistic regression models show that all three indicators of health improved over the 10-year period, with the largest improvement in self-rated health. With the exception of disability, the health of women improved more than men. Using Sullivan's decomposition methods, we also show that active life expectancy, disease-free life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy increased over this decade and were patterned differently according to gender. Overall, the findings demonstrate that China experienced broad health improvements during its early stages of the epidemiologic transition and that these changes were not uniform by gender. We discuss the public health implications of the findings in the context of China's rapidly aging population. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | RESEARCH REPORT | MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS | ADULTS | GENDER ISSUES | LIFE EXPECTANCY | DISEASES | LIFE STYLE | QUALITY OF LIFE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Data Analysis | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Length of Life | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Behavior | Social Welfare | Economic Factors Document Number: 342740 |
| 2. Peer Reviewed Title: Birth records from Swiss married couples analyzed over the past 35 years reveal an aging of first-time mothers by 5.1 years while the interpregnancy interval has shortened. Author: Kalberer U; Baud D; Fontanet A; Hohlfeld P; de Ziegler D Source: Fertility and Sterility. 2009 Jul 14; Abstract: Although the general trend for delaying childbearing is generally viewed as causing infertility, its consequences on the interpregnancy interval have been unknown. A study of birth records for Swiss married women from 1969 to 2006 revealed that the woman's age at first birth has increased from 25.0 to 30.1 years, whereas calculated theoretical interpregnancy intervals after the first and second child decreased from 23.2 to 13 and from 22.4 to 7.9 months, respectively. Language: English Keywords: SWITZERLAND | SUMMARY REPORT | COUPLES | CURRENTLY MARRIED | DELAYED CHILDBEARING | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY | BIOLOGICAL AGING | BIRTH RECORDS | FIRST BIRTH | AGE FACTORS | FIRST BIRTH INTERVALS | Developed Countries | Europe, Central | Europe | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Marital Status | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population | Reproductive Behavior | Population Dynamics | Physiology | Biology | Vital Statistics | Population Statistics | Research Methodology | Pregnancy History | Fertility Measurements | Population Characteristics | Birth Intervals Document Number: 342041 |
| 3. Peer Reviewed Title: The burden of non-communicable diseases in South Africa. Author: Mayosi BM; Flisher AJ; Lalloo UG; Sitas F; Tollman SM; Bradshaw D Source: Lancet. 2009 Sep 12;374(9693):934-47. Abstract: 15 years after its first democratic election, South Africa is in the midst of a profound health transition that is characterised by a quadruple burden of communicable, non-communicable, perinatal and maternal, and injury-related disorders. Non-communicable diseases are emerging in both rural and urban areas, most prominently in poor people living in urban settings, and are resulting in increasing pressure on acute and chronic health-care services. Major factors include demographic change leading to a rise in the proportion of people older than 60 years, despite the negative effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy. The burden of these diseases will probably increase as the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy takes effect and reduces mortality from HIV/AIDS. The scale of the challenge posed by the combined and growing burden of HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases demands an extraordinary response that South Africa is well able to provide. Concerted action is needed to strengthen the district-based primary health-care system, to integrate the care of chronic diseases and management of risk factors, to develop a national surveillance system, and to apply interventions of proven cost-effectiveness in the primary and secondary prevention of such diseases within populations and health services. We urge the launching of a national initiative to establish sites of service excellence in urban and rural settings throughout South Africa to trial, assess, and implement integrated care interventions for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases. Language: English Keywords: SOUTH AFRICA | RESEARCH REPORT | RURAL AREAS | RURAL POPULATION | LOW INCOME POPULATION | PRIMARY HEALTH CARE | DISEASES | HEALTH SERVICES | QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | HIV PREVENTION | AIDS PREVENTION | INTEGRATED PROGRAMS | GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS | Developing Countries | Africa, Southern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Social Class | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Health Services Evaluation | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration | Population Dynamics | HIV Infections | Viral Diseases | AIDS Document Number: 342869 |
| 4. Peer Reviewed Title: Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Author: Myrskyla M; Kohler HP; Billari FC Source: Nature. 2009 Aug 6;460(7256):741-3. Abstract: During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility. Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | LONGITUDINAL STUDIES | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | FERTILITY DECLINE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION REPLACEMENT | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | Studies | Research Methodology | Economic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Migration Document Number: 342781 |
5.  Title: An overview of urbanization, internal migration, population distribution and development in the world. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2008 Jan 14. 34 p. (UN/POP/EGM-URB/2008/01) Prepared for the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development, New York, New York, January 21-23, 2008. Abstract: The distribution of humanity on the earth's surface has always responded to the opportunities that different territories provide. After the invention of agriculture, the availability of arable land largely determined the place where most people settled. The practice of agriculture also permitted the accumulation of food surpluses and the differentiation of productive activities that led to the emergence of more complex settlements generically identified as "cities". In modern history, cities have played key roles as centres of Government, production, trade, knowledge, innovation and rising productivity. The changes brought about by the industrial revolution would be unimaginable in the absence of cities. The mechanization of production made necessary the concentration of population. Rapid industrialization was accompanied by increasing urbanization. In 1920, the more developed regions, being the most industrialized, had just under 30 per cent of their population in urban areas. As industrialization advanced in the developing world so did urbanization, particularly in Latin America where 41 per cent of the population was urban by 1950. In Africa and Asia levels of urbanization remained lower, although the urban population increased markedly, particularly in Asia. Between 1920 and 2007, the world's urban population increased from about 270 million to 3.3 billion, with 1.5 billion urban dwellers added to Asia, 750 million to the more developed regions, just under 450 million to Latin America and the Caribbean, and just over 350 million to Africa. These changes foreshadow those to come. Between 2007 and 2050, the urban population is expected to increase as much as it did since 1920, that is, 3.1 billion additional urban dwellers are expected by 2050, including 1.8 billion in Asia and 0.9 billion in Africa. These powerful trends will shape and in turn be shaped by economic and social development. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | URBAN AREAS | URBAN POPULATION | URBANIZATION | RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION | INTERNAL MIGRATION | POVERTY | PROGRAM ACCESSIBILITY | RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | POLICY | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics | Urban Population Distribution | Migration | Population Dynamics | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Program Evaluation | Programs | Organization and Administration | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 323730 |
| 6. Peer Reviewed Title: The epidemiology of dependency among urban-dwelling older people in the Dominican Republic: a cross-sectional survey. Author: Acosta D; Rottbeck R; Rodriguez G; Ferri CP; Prince MJ Source: BMC Public Health. 2008 Aug 13;8:285. Abstract: Demographic ageing, and the health transition will soon lead to large increases in the number of dependent older people in low and middle income countries. Despite its importance, this topic has not previously been studied. A cross sectional catchment area one-phase survey of health conditions, dependency, care arrangements and caregiver strain among 2011 people aged 65 years and over in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. 7.1% of participants required much care and a further 4.7% required at least some care. The prevalence of dependency increased sharply with increasing age. Dependent older people were less likely than others to have a pension and much less likely to have paid work, but no more likely to benefit from financial support from their family. Needing much care was strongly associated with comorbidity between cognitive, psychological and physical health problems. However, dementia made the strongest independent contribution. Among those needing care, those with dementia stood out as being more disabled, as needing more care (particularly support with core activities of daily living), and as being more likely to have paid caregivers. Dementia caregivers experienced more strain than caregivers of those with other health conditions, an effect mediated by behavioural and psychological symptoms. Dependency among older people is nearly as prevalent in Dominican Republic as in developed western settings. Non-communicable diseases, particularly dementia are the main contributing factors. Attention needs to be directed towards the development of age-appropriate healthcare, a long-term care policy, and mechanisms for ensuring the social protection of older persons. Language: English Keywords: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS | EPIDEMIOLOGY | URBAN AREAS | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | HEALTH | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | Caribbean | Americas | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Public Health | Geographic Factors | Population | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 307986 |
| 7. Peer Reviewed Title: Demography, culture, and policy: Understanding Japan's low fertility. Author: Boling P Source: Population and Development Review. 2008 Jun;34(2):307-326. Abstract: Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs. (author's) Language: English Keywords: JAPAN | FRANCE | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FAMILY POLICY | POPULATION POLICY | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | LABOR FORCE | GENDER ISSUES | PRONATALIST POLICY | POLITICAL SYSTEMS | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | CHILD CARE | FEMALE ROLE | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Studies | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Child Rearing | Behavior | Social Behavior Document Number: 327375 |
| 8. Title: Do coresidency and financial transfers from the children reduce the need for elderly parents to works in developing countries? Author: Cameron LA; Cobb-Clark D Source: Journal of Population Economics. 2008 Oct;21(4):1007-1033. Abstract: Do elderly parents use coresidence with or financial transfers from children to reduce their own labour supply in old age? This paper is one of only a few studies that seeks to formally model elderly labour supply in the context of a developing country while taking into account coresidency with and financial transfers from children. We find little evidence that support from children-either through transfers or coresidency-substitutes for elderly parents' need to work. Thus, as in developed countries, there is a role for public policy to enhance the welfare of the elderly population. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | INDONESIA | RESEARCH REPORT | ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES | MATHEMATICAL MODEL | OLDER ADULTS | CHILDREN | LIVING ARRANGEMENTS | INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | LABOR FORCE | Asia, Southeastern | Asia | Research Methodology | Theoretical Models | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Youth | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Population Dynamics | Human Resources Document Number: 327975 |
| 9. Title: The health of aging populations in China and India. Author: Chatterji S; Kowal P; Mathers C; Naidoo N; Verdes E; Smith JP; Suzman R Source: Health Affairs. 2008 Jul-Aug;27(4):1052-63. Abstract: China and India are home to two of the world's largest populations, and both populations are aging rapidly. Our data compare health status, risk factors, and chronic diseases among people age forty-five and older in China and India. By 2030, 65.6 percent of the Chinese and 45.4 percent of the Indian health burden are projected to be borne by older adults, a population with high levels of noncommunicable diseases. Smoking (26 percent in both China and India) and inadequate physical activity (10 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively) are highly prevalent. Health policy and interventions informed by appropriate data will be needed to avert this burden. Language: English Keywords: CHINA | INDIA | RESEARCH REPORT | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | EVALUATION INDEXES | OLDER ADULTS | MIDDLE AGED ADULTS | PREVALENCE | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | RISK FACTORS | CHRONIC DISEASES | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | BIOLOGICAL AGING | TOBACCO USE | FITNESS | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Research Methodology | Quantitative Evaluation | Evaluation | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Measurement | Health | Biology | Diseases | Population Dynamics | Physiology | Behavior Document Number: 329252 |
| 10. Peer Reviewed Title: Fertility transition and population ageing in the Asian and Pacific region. Author: Gubhaju B Source: Asia Pacific Population Journal. 2008 Aug;23(2):55-80. Abstract: This paper provides a general overview of population ageing in the context of fertility transition in Asia and the Pacific. Focusing on low-fertility countries, it highlights the implications of low fertility for the ageing process. Indicators of population ageing, such as changes in age structure, potential support ratio and the feminization of the elderly population, are presented to provide a better understanding of the overall situation. As the region is home to over 60 per cent of the global population and has been experiencing a rapid decline in fertility, the absolute size of the older population is a cause for major concern. While the overall population growth rate has been declining over time, the number of older persons is increasing at a faster rate. In addition to the increase in the number of older persons, gender disparity in improvements in life expectancy at birth is likely to result in a much higher percent age of females in the older age groups, particularly in the age group 80 years and older. It is therefore important for countries in the region to recognize the significance of ageing problems and to start formulating policies for the elderly given that it takes several decades for Government old-age pension schemes to mature and to operate at full scale. Language: English Keywords: ASIA | OCEANIA | RESEARCH REPORT | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | LIFE EXPECTANCY | Developing Countries | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Age Distribution | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality Document Number: 331308 |
| 11. Title: Global aging and the demographic divide. Author: Haub C Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2008 Apr. [7] p. Abstract: In the latter half of the last century, the world's developed nations completed a long process of demographic transition. The field of demography describes this demographic transition as a shift from a period of high mortality, short lives, and large families to one with a longer life expectancy and far fewer children. This transformation took many centuries in Europe and North America as people moved from farms to cities; basic public health measures steadily reduced the risk of contagious disease; and modern medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths. In developing countries, this demographic transition is certainly underway, though these countries vary widely at their places along the spectrum. Very low birth rates and the resultant population decrease have received considerable media attention, particularly in Europe and parts of eastern Asia. In the past, when demographers projected national and global populations, the projections commonly assumed that birth rates would decline worldwide but only to the "two-child" family, i.e., two children per woman or per couple on average. An assumption that fertility would fall below this rate would have some unpleasant consequences: a decrease in population size and a population top-heavy with retired seniors who would depend upon the social taxes paid by a dwindling number of younger workers. While it may not have been desirable to project such a gloomy scenario in the past, this is exactly what has transpired in many countries. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | POPULATION PROJECTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | SEX DISTRIBUTION | DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Sex Factors Document Number: 326012 |
| 12. Title: Fertility concern in Finland and Russia: Economic thinking and ideal family size in the rhetoric of population polices. Author: Isola AM Source: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 2008;43:63-84. Abstract: This article deals with fertility concern in Russian and Finnish population policies. The article points out that some commonly known discourses are persistently used as arguments in fertility-related population policies. In Finland, these include, for instance, discourses on "ageing nation" and "economic competitiveness". Russian policymakers use a "crisis discourse" that consists of three sub-discourses: "demographic crisis", "reproductive health in crisis" and "family crisis". The Russian government implements pronatalist population policies, whereas Finnish authorities hesitate to use the term "population policy" because of its emphasis on reproductive rights on the one hand, and the negative associations of population policy on the other. Russia has both population and family programs, as well as a new law with a specifically pronatalist emphasis. Conversely, Finland uses family policy as a tool of population policy. (author's) Language: English Keywords: FINLAND | RUSSIA | RESEARCH REPORT | CROSS-CULTURAL COMPARISONS | POPULATION | FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL | HOME ECONOMICS | POPULATION POLICY | FAMILY PLANNING POLICY | PUBLIC OPINION | PERCEPTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH | PRONATALIST POLICY | REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS | Developed Countries | Europe, Northern | Europe | Asia, Northern | Asia | Developing Countries | Comparative Studies | Studies | Research Methodology | Family Size | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Family Planning | Attitudes | Psychological Factors | Behavior | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Health | Human Rights Document Number: 326069 |
| 13. Title: The graying of the great powers: Demography and geopolitics in the 21st century. Author: Jackson R; Howe N; Strauss R; Nakashima K Source: Washington, D.C., Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], 2008. 184 p. (Advance Proofs) Abstract: This report explores the geopolitical implications of "global aging"-the dramatic demographic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. Its viewpoint is that of the United States in particular and today's developed countries in general. Its timeframe is roughly the next half-century, from today through 2050. The report assesses how population aging and population decline in the developed world may affect the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security. The analysis not only considers the impact of the demographic trends on population numbers, wealth, and defense capability, it also explores how they could change the temperament of society (by affecting risk tolerance, voter behavior, job mobility, religious extremism, and family structure) - and thus change national goals themselves. The report also looks closely at how demographic trends in the developing world will shape the future global security environment-and the threats and opportunities they pose for today's graying great powers. This overview summarizes the report's main findings under two headings: findings about the demographic transformation and findings about its geopolitical implications. It also lays out the organization of the report and summarizes the ground covered in the different chapters. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | TECHNICAL REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | POPULATION DECREASE | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | NATIONAL SECURITY | SOCIAL CHANGE | POLITICAL FACTORS | POLICY DEVELOPMENT | North America | Americas | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Sociocultural Factors | Planning | Organization and Administration Document Number: 326609 |
| 14. Peer Reviewed Title: Aging and health of the elderly in rural Bangladesh. Author: Khan MM; Matin MA Source: Journal of Family Welfare. 2008 Jun;54(1):92-99. Abstract: Aging is quite a new topic in Bangladesh and the concern for the elderly is a low priority for the government. Literature has not emerged as yet; however, this will become a challenge for the nation in the near future. This study may not reveal the true picture of the rural elderly; however, it provides some insight of the indicators regarding the health status of rural elderly, which may be used in formulating effective primary policy strategy and to tackle the consequences of aging in the near future. Further studies are required to validate the results found herein and to cope with the enormous changes presently going on in social, cultural and economic arenas in Bangladesh. Thus, proper attention of population scientists and immediate intervention of government is necessary to conduct extensive research to know about the elderly and related problems to eradicate its consequences in Bangladesh. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | RESEARCH REPORT | RURAL POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | OLDER ADULTS, 80 AND OVER | HEALTH STATUS INDEXES | PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS | HEALTH POLICY | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Older Adults | Adults | Age Factors | Health | Behavior | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors Document Number: 340189 |
| 15. Title: An aging world - demographics and challenges [editorial] Author: Lunenfeld B Source: Gynecological Endocrinology. 2008 Jan;24(1):1-3. Abstract: The world has seen enormous changes over the past century, including historically unprecedented declines in mortality rates and increases in population, followed by equally unprecedented declines in fertility rates. This century will see a new set of demographic challenges, including a mix of falling fertility rates alongside persisting worldwide population growth, and the subsequent aging of populations in both developing and developed countries. The 20th century was the century of population growth; the 21st century will go into the history books as the century of aging. A holistic approach to this new challenge of the 21st century will necessitate a quantum leap in multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated research efforts, supported by a new partnership between industry and governments, philanthropic and international organizations. This collaboration we hope will enrich us with a better understanding of healthy aging, permit us to help to improve quality of life, prevent the preventable, and postpone and decrease the pain and suffering of the inevitable. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | CRITIQUE | INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES | OLDER ADULTS | POPULATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | QUALITY OF LIFE | POPULATION PROJECTION | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | LIFE STYLE | RISK REDUCTION BEHAVIOR | PREVENTIVE MEDICINE | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population Dynamics | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Welfare | Economic Factors | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Fertility Changes | Length of Life | Mortality | Natural Resources | Environment | Behavior | Medicine | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 324751 |
| 16. Title: The coming acceleration of global population ageing [letter] Author: Lutz W; Sanderson W; Scherbov S Source: Nature. 2008 Feb 7;451:716-719. Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by midcentury. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY DECLINE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | POPULATION FORECAST | POPULATION PROJECTION | MEASUREMENT | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology Document Number: 326160 |
| 17. Peer Reviewed Title: [The changing age distribution of the Brazilian population in the first half of the 21st century] A transição da estrutura etária da população brasileira na primeira metade do século XXI. Author: Magno de Carvalho JA; Rodriguez-Wong LL Source: Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2008 Mar;24(3):597-605. Abstract: Brazil is currently in an advanced stage of both the mortality and fertility transitions, which allows one to confidently forecast the age distribution and population size over the next four decades. Whereas the elderly population (>or= 65 years) will increase at high rates (2-4% per year), the young population will decline. According to United Nations projections, the elderly population will increase from 3.1% of the population in 1970 to 19% in 2050. Meanwhile, within the young and adult populations, growth rates will vary among different age groups, ranging from negative to positive values. The changing age distribution of the Brazilian population brings opportunities and challenges that could lead to serious social and economic issues if not dealt with properly in the coming decades. (author's) Language: Portuguese Keywords: BRAZIL | RESEARCH REPORT | AGE DISTRIBUTION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | Developing Countries | South America, Eastern | South America | Latin America | Americas | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics Document Number: 326491 |
| 18. Title: Demographic challenges and the implications for children in CEE / CIS. Revision. Author: Menchini L; Marnie S Source: Florence, Italy, UNICEF, Innocenti Research Centre, 2008 Feb. [50] p. (Innocenti Working Paper No. IWP-2007-01) Abstract: The paper discusses some of the implications of recent demographic changes in the CEE/CIS on children of the region. The first part of the paper documents the striking changes in population size and structures which have occurred since the beginning of transition, and which have led to a substantial reduction in the child population. It is argued that they have been mainly driven by the drop in birth rates which has characterised the whole region, but which has been most dramatic in the CEE and Western CIS. Some countries in these subregions now rank among those with the lowest levels of fertility in the world, and the shrinking cohorts of children in these countries face the prospect of a growing old-age dependency burden. The second part of the paper discusses recent data on infant and under-five mortality, which are direct measures of child wellbeing and of the success of policy measures aimed at improving child survival and development. The paper highlights the marked differences not only in levels, but also in progress in reducing mortality rates across the CEE/CIS. Whereas some countries of Central Europe have made impressive progress during the past decade and now rank among those with the lowest levels of infant mortality in the world, the high levels in the Caucasus and Central Asian countries are a matter for concern. The paper also draws attention to the substantial monitoring challenges which still exist in estimating and tracking infant and child mortality, particularly in these latter two subregions, despite the recent official adoption of the internationally recommended definition of 'live births'. Official estimates based on civil registry records lead to an underestimation of the scale of the child survival problem and detract policy attention from the urgent need to improve the quality of pre and post natal care, mainly through incentives and training for medical staff. Without improvements in monitoring, it will be difficult for these countries to devise appropriate policy responsesto correct the problems and remove existing barriers to improving child survival. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, EASTERN | USSR | RESEARCH REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS | CHILDREN | POPULATION SIZE | DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT | LOW FERTILITY POPULATION | INFANT MORTALITY | CHILD MORTALITY | HEALTH POLICY | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | CHILD SURVIVAL | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | Developing Countries | Europe | Research Methodology | Youth | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Fertility | Mortality | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Survivorship | Length of Life Document Number: 326763 |
| 19. Title: Healthy aging in cities. Author: Quinn A Source: Journal of Urban Health. 2008 Mar;85(2):151-153. Abstract: In the coming decades, the global population will urbanize and age at high rates. Today, half of the world's populations lives in cities.1 By 2030, that proportion will rise to 60%, and urbanization will occur most greatly in developing countries. At the same time, the world's population aged 60 and over will double from 11% to 22% by 2050, and that growth will be concentrated in urban areas in less developed countries. All of these trends challenge public health workers, doctors, researchers, and urban planners to ensure healthy livable cities for older people. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: URBAN AREAS | CRITIQUE | COMMUNITY | SOCIAL NETWORKS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | RETIREMENT | QUALITY OF LIFE | TRANSPORTATION | HOUSING | WHO | HEALTH SERVICES | Geographic Factors | Population | Residence Characteristics | Population Distribution | Friends and Relatives | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Employment Status | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Economic Factors | Social Welfare | UN | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Delivery of Health Care | Health Document Number: 325554 |
| 20. Peer Reviewed Title: Sex and the city: Differences in disease- and disability-free life years, and active community participation of elderly men and women in 7 cities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Author: Rose AM; Hennis AJ; Hambleton IR Source: BMC Public Health. 2008 Apr 21;8:127. Abstract: The world's population is ageing, and four of the top 10 most rapidly ageing developing nations are from the region of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Although an ageing population heralds likely increases in chronic disease, disability-related dependence, and economic burden, the societal contribution of the chronically ill or those with disability is not often measured. We calculated country-specific prevalences of 'disability' (difficulty with at least one activity of daily living), 'disease' and 'co-morbidity' (presence of at least one, and at least two, of seven chronic diseases/conditions, respectively), and 'active community engagement' (using five levels of community participation, from less than weekly community contact to voluntary or paid work) in seven LAC cities. We estimated remaining life expectancy (LE) with and without disability, disease and co-morbidity, and investigated age, sex, and regional variations in disability-free LE. Finally, we modeled the association of disease, co-morbidity and disability with active community participation using an ordinal regression model, adjusted for depression. Overall, 77% of the LAC elderly had at least one chronic disease/condition, 44% had comorbidity and 19% had a disability. The proportion of disability-free LE declined between the youngest (60-64 years) and the eldest (90 years and over) age-groups for both men (from 85% to 55%) and women (from 75% to 45%). Disease-free and co-morbidity-free LE, however, remained at approximately 30% and 62%, respectively, for men (20% and 48% for women), until 80-84 years of age, then increased. Only Bridgetown's participants had statistically significantly longer disability-free LE than the regional average (IRR=1.08; 95%CI 1.05-1.10; p less than 0.001). Only Santiago's participants had disability-free LE which was shorter than the regional average (IRR=0.94; 95%CI 0.92-0.97; p less than 0.001). There was 75% active community participation overall, with more women than men involved in active help (49% vs 32%, respectively) and more men involved in voluntary/paid work (46% vs 25%, respectively). There was either no, or borderline significance in the association between having one or more diseases/conditions and active community engagement for both sexes. These associations were limited by depression (odds ratio [OR] reduced by 15-17% for men, and by 8-11% for women), and only remained statistically significant in men. However, disability remained statistically significantly associated with less community engagement after adjusting for depression (OR=0.58, 95%CI 0.49-0.69, p less than 0.001 for women and OR=0.50, 95%CI 0.47-0.65, p less than 0.001 for men). There is an increasing burden of disease and disability with older age across the LAC region. As these nations cope with resulting social and economic demands, governments and civic societies must continue to develop and maintain opportunities for community participation by this increasingly frail, but actively engaged group. (author's) Language: English Keywords: LATIN AMERICA | CARIBBEAN | RESEARCH REPORT | PREVALENCE | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION | LIFE EXPECTANCY | DISEASES | MORBIDITY | DEPENDENCY BURDEN | Americas | Developing Countries | Measurement | Research Methodology | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Organization and Administration | Length of Life | Mortality | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 326237 |
| 21. Peer Reviewed Title: Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades. Author: Streatfield PK; Karar ZA Source: Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition. 2008 Sep;26(3):261-72. Abstract: Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. Language: English Keywords: BANGLADESH | CRITIQUE | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | MARRIAGE PATTERNS | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | CONTRACEPTION | POPULATION DENSITY | URBANIZATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | CLIMATE | AGRICULTURE | Developing Countries | Asia, Southern | Asia | Research Methodology | Estimation Techniques | Marriage | Nuptiality | Demographic Factors | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Family Planning | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Urban Population Distribution | Environment | Macroeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 328892 |
| 22. Title: Growing old and staying young: Population policy in an ageing closed economy. Author: van Groezen B; Meijdam L Source: Journal of Population Economics. 2008 Jul;21(3):573-588. Abstract: This paper analyses the relation between public pensions, fertility and child care in a closed-economy overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that raising a child involves two social externalities and that it is optimal to introduce child allowances if the government redistributes income from the young to the old. The optimal child allowance rises when longevity increases. If the costs of raising children depend positively on the wage, a third externality arises and the returns to savings should be taxed. (author's) Language: English Keywords: GLOBAL | NETHERLANDS | RESEARCH REPORT | THEORETICAL MODELS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FAMILY ALLOWANCES | OLD AGE SECURITY | SOCIAL SECURITY | FERTILITY PREFERENCES | CHILD CARE | ECONOMIC FACTORS | Developed Countries | Europe, Western | Europe | Research Methodology | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Family Policy | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Government Financing | Financial Activities | Fertility | Child Rearing | Behavior Document Number: 326872 |
| 23. Title: World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Highlights. Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division Source: New York, New York, United Nations, 2007. [118] p. (ESA/P/WP.202) Abstract: The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION STATISTICS | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | POPULATION | UN | POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | MORTALITY DECLINE | HIV INFECTIONS | PREVALENCE | POPULATION PROJECTION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY | Research Methodology | International Agencies | Organizations | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Estimation Techniques | Age Distribution | Age Factors | Demographic Factors | Mortality | Population Dynamics | Viral Diseases | Diseases | Measurement Document Number: 316765 |
| 24. Title: Africa's youthful population: risk or opportunity? Author: Ashford LS Source: Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], Bringing Information to Decisionmakers for Global Effectiveness [BRIDGE], 2007. [4] p. Abstract: Africa's young people will be the driving force behind economic prosperity in future decades, but only if policies and programs are in place to enhance their opportunities and encourage smaller families. A cycle of positive outcomes can result from having a larger, better-educated workforce with fewer children to support-children who will in turn be more educated and employable, provided that institutions are strengthened and viable economic policies are in place. This policy brief outlines the opportunities and risks that can result from the large numbers of youth growing up in sub-Saharan Africa today. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: AFRICA | AFRICA, SUB SAHARAN | AFRICA, NORTH | PROGRESS REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS | YOUTH | POLICYMAKERS | POPULATION | WORKERS | LABOR FORCE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | MACROECONOMIC FACTORS | DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS | AGE DISTRIBUTION CHANGES | Developing Countries | Research Methodology | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Administrative Personnel | Organization and Administration | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Population Dynamics | Age Distribution Document Number: 318957 |
| 25. Peer Reviewed Title: Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Impact of international migration on population ageing. Author: Bijak J; Kupiszewska D; Kupiszewski M; Saczuk K; Kicinger A Source: European Journal of Population. 2007 Mar;23(1):1-31. Abstract: Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002--2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. (author's) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE | RESEARCH REPORT | POPULATION PROJECTION | LABOR FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | AGE FACTORS | Developed Countries | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Migration | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Characteristics Document Number: 313325 |
| 26. Title: From red to gray. The "third transition" of aging populations in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Author: Chawla M; Betcherman G; Banerji A; Bakilana AM; Feher C Source: Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2007. [295] p. Abstract: This third transition-from red to gray-is unique. Populations have been aging quite rapidly in many countries; by 2010, populations will start decreasing in such industrial countries as France, Italy, and Japan. Yet the unique conjunction of rapidly aging and relatively poor populations exists only in this region. Indeed, between 2000 and 2005, the only countries in the world with population declines of more than 5,000 people were 16 countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union-led by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Romania, Belarus, and Bulgaria. No aging country is as poor as Georgia-set to lose 800,000 people over the next two decades and with a per capita gross national income of just US$1,060 in 2004. And no other countries in the world face the dual challenges of a rapidly aging population and an incomplete transition to mature market institutions to deal with the adverse economic consequences of aging. This report examines the possible impact of this third transition. It analyzes projections and policy outlooks for a whole range of issues, from labor markets to pension policies, from health care to savings and capital markets. It concludes that although aging in the region is occurring in the context of unprecedentedly weak institutional development, countries can avoid severe economic consequences if they accelerate their economic transition and undertake longer-term policies to meet the aging challenge. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: EUROPE, EASTERN | PROGRESS REPORT | TECHNICAL REPORT | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | LABOR FORCE | SAVINGS | OLD AGE SECURITY | EXPENDITURES | EDUCATION | POPULATION PROJECTION | RETIREMENT | Developing Countries | Europe | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Economic Factors | Macroeconomic Factors | Microeconomic Factors | Financial Activities | Estimation Techniques | Research Methodology | Employment Status | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors Document Number: 321130 |
| 27. Title: Population aging and international development: addressing competing claims of distributive justice. Author: Engelman M; Johnson S Source: Developing World Bioethics. 2007;7(1):8-18. Abstract: To date, bioethics and health policy scholarship has given little consideration to questions of aging and intergenerational justice in the developing world. Demographic changes are precipitating rapid population aging in developing nations, however, and ethical issues regarding older people's claim to scarce healthcare resources must be addressed. This paper posits that the traditional arguments about generational justice and age-based rationing of healthcare resources, which were developed primarily in more industrialized nations, fail to adequately address the unique challenges facing older persons in developing nations. Existing philosophical approaches to age-based resource allocation underemphasize the importance of older persons for developing countries and fail to adequately consider the rights and interests of older persons in these settings. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the most appropriate framework for thinking about generational justice in developing nations is a rights-based approach that allows for the interests of all age groups, including the oldest, to be considered in the determination of health resource allocation. (author's) Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | PHILOSOPHICAL OVERVIEW | GENERATIONS | OLDER ADULTS | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | HUMAN RIGHTS | DEVELOPMENT POLICY | AGE FACTORS | ETHICS | HEALTH SERVICES | RESOURCE ALLOCATION | Family Characteristics | Family and Household | Sociocultural Factors | Adults | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Population Dynamics | Political Factors | Policy | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Financial Activities | Economic Factors Document Number: 313042 |
| 28. Peer Reviewed Title: Lowest-low fertility in the Republic of Korea: Causes, consequences and policy responses. Author: Eun KS Source: Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2007 Aug;22(2):51-72. Abstract: Lowest-low fertility appeared quite suddenly in the Republic of Korea although fertility has consistently declined for several decades. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Interestingly, the pace of the decline accelerated after the region-wide economic crisis in 1997. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and significantly after the country had passed through the crisis. The present article aims to explain why lowest-low fertility appeared in the Republic of Korea in the late 1990s. The author approaches the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. Finally, this article presents and discusses the latest population policies proposed by the Government of the Republic of Korea. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: REPUBLIC OF KOREA | CRITIQUE | FERTILITY DECLINE | DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION | MARRIAGE AGE | ECONOMIC FACTORS | SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS | CHILD REARING | WOMEN'S STATUS | ATTITUDES | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | SOCIAL POLICY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Fertility Changes | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Marriage Patterns | Marriage | Nuptiality | Behavior | Socioeconomic Factors | Psychological Factors | Policy | Political Factors Document Number: 326119 |
| 29. Peer Reviewed Title: Low fertility in China: Trends, policy and impact. Author: Gu B Source: Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2007 Aug;22(2):73-90. Abstract: China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion, while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB), 2006). China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy, having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports China's total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4. The rapid changes occurring in China's population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends, policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth, birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China, before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing, gender equality, sex ratio at birth and labour supply. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: CHINA | ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS | CRITIQUE | BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | FERTILITY RATE | POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS | POPULATION POLICY | SEX RATIO | LIFE EXPECTANCY | OLD AGE SECURITY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developing Countries | Geographic Factors | Population | Population Decrease | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Social Policy | Policy | Political Factors | Sociocultural Factors | Sex Distribution | Sex Factors | Length of Life | Mortality | Microeconomic Factors | Economic Factors Document Number: 326122 |
| 30. Title: The aging of Korea. Demographics and retirement policy in the Land of the Morning Calm. Author: Howe N; Jackson R; Nakashima K Source: Washington, D.C., Center for Strategic and International Studies, Global Aging Initiative, 2007 Mar. 52 p. Abstract: Korea is still a demographically youthful nation. In 2005, the elderly made up just 9 percent of the population, far beneath the developed-country average of 15 percent. But with life expectancy rising and birthrates plumbing record lows, Korea is about to undergo a stunning demographic transformation. According to the latest government projections, 38 percent of Korea's population will be elderly by 2050, putting it in contention with Japan, Italy, and Spain for the oldest country on earth. The aging of its population will bring profound changes to nearly every dimension of Korean life. Government budgets will come under relentless pressure from rising expenditures on pensions and health care. Businesses will have to cope with a deficit of entry-level workers and young consumers, while families will have to cope with a surplus of frail elders. Unless Korea takes adequate and timely steps to prepare, it could face a future of slower economic growth and stagnating living standards. (excerpt) Language: English Keywords: REPUBLIC OF KOREA | TECHNICAL REPORT | OLDER ADULTS | LABOR FORCE | DEMOGRAPHIC AGING | RETIREMENT | CARE AND SUPPORT | ECONOMIC FACTORS | MODERNIZATION | FERTILITY RATE | LIFE EXPECTANCY | SOCIAL SECURITY | Asia, Eastern | Asia | Developed Countries | Adults | Age Factors | Population Characteristics | Demographic Factors | Population | Human Resources | Population Dynamics | Employment Status | Socioeconomic Status | Socioeconomic Factors | Health Services | Delivery of Health Care | Health | Social Change | Sociocultural Factors | Birth Rate | Fertility Measurements | Fertility | Length of Life | Mortality | Government Financing | Financial Activities Document Number: 320939 |
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